MAG5035 Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 On a brighter note, I see that the 12z GFS brings the 570 thickness line and 850 temps in excess of 15ºC into the southern tier of PA later Sunday into Monday preceding the system later next week. If it's actually nice and clear, one or both of these days could be quite warm with maybe the chance of some sites under I-80 seeing some 80 degree weather. If not, 70s def look quite attainable for many folks the latter half of this coming weekend... which is a major improvement from the crappy weather so far this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 I won the snowfall contest. i get: Northeast Snowstorms Volume 1 and 2 by Paul J. Kocin Congrats! Great news. That book is awesome, it really is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 On a brighter note, I see that the 12z GFS brings the 570 thickness line and 850 temps in excess of 15ºC into the southern tier of PA later Sunday into Monday preceding the system later next week. If it's actually nice and clear, one or both of these days could be quite warm with maybe the chance of some sites under I-80 seeing some 80 degree weather. If not, 70s def look quite attainable for many folks the latter half of this coming weekend... which is a major improvement from the crappy weather so far this week. So....also a break in the rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Congrats! Great news. That book is awesome, it really is. thanks cant wait to read it...maybe i can learn something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 So....also a break in the rain? It appears that way for Sunday and Monday. The 12z Euro looks even warmer than the GFS bringing 15-20ºC 850s through most of PA and beyond as well as driving the 570 all the way into southeast Maine on Monday. Would likely bring 80+ into the Sus valley and south central. System brings a front thru Monday night, so might have to eventually assess a possible severe weather threat. Euro timing is a bit late... so might diminish the thunderstorm potential in central and eastern if that timing holds, plus it essentially has nonexistent CAPE in the northeast... which is due to the very warm forecast temps aloft at 925, 850, 700mb, etc. to go with the warm surface. So not really a great looking setup for severe attm. But it's def looking like a warm couple of days with not much precip after what could possibly be one more rude surprise for some folks Thurs night/Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 It appears that way for Sunday and Monday. The 12z Euro looks even warmer than the GFS bringing 15-20ºC 850s through most of PA and beyond as well as driving the 570 all the way into southeast Maine on Monday. Would likely bring 80+ into the Sus valley and south central. System brings a front thru Monday night, so might have to eventually assess a possible severe weather threat. Euro timing is a bit late... so might diminish the thunderstorm potential in central and eastern if that timing holds, plus it essentially has nonexistent CAPE in the northeast... which is due to the very warm forecast temps aloft at 925, 850, 700mb, etc. to go with the warm surface. So not really a great looking setup for severe attm. But it's def looking like a warm couple of days with not much precip after what could possibly be one more rude surprise for some folks Thurs night/Fri. Thanks! I am definitely going to plant Sunday. I am psyched about it. Although I am not counting on no more rude surprises. I don't trust this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 It appears that way for Sunday and Monday. The 12z Euro looks even warmer than the GFS bringing 15-20ºC 850s through most of PA and beyond as well as driving the 570 all the way into southeast Maine on Monday. Would likely bring 80+ into the Sus valley and south central. System brings a front thru Monday night, so might have to eventually assess a possible severe weather threat. Euro timing is a bit late... so might diminish the thunderstorm potential in central and eastern if that timing holds, plus it essentially has nonexistent CAPE in the northeast... which is due to the very warm forecast temps aloft at 925, 850, 700mb, etc. to go with the warm surface. So not really a great looking setup for severe attm. But it's def looking like a warm couple of days with not much precip after what could possibly be one more rude surprise for some folks Thurs night/Fri. Thanks! I am definitely going to plant Sunday. I am psyched about it. Although I am not counting on no more rude surprises. I don't trust this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 thanks cant wait to read it...maybe i can learn something I guarantee you will crap your pants when you see how in depth the studies that are done by Kocin and crew. I bought them a few months ago and lets say the 100$ I paid for them was worth every single cent!! There are tons of case studies and actual pattern analysis that takes place in great detail. It won't disappoint, I can promise you that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Interesting to watch the nam and Euro and to some extent the GFS wrt p-types for later this week. Look at the 0z nam for Thursday night-Friday morning. North and east of Snow Shoe looks rather snowy, with much of this falling at night and early morning. Pottercountywx - here comes another one in front of a warmup. This has been some storm I tell you what. We currently have 2" of snow on the ground here, but should have more if it wasn't melting on contact earlier, plus my elevation is rather low and sits in a valley with only 1500ft. I had to go through Kane and Mt. Jewett Pa (Over 2000ft) today and they had easily 5" of snow on the ground from the storm. Its amazing to see how elevation dependant this storm truly is. I had to go to Clarion today and it was actually raining there most of the day whereas soon as I approached some of the ridge tops, instant snow. Penndot was not doing a very good job today in my opinion, I'm wondering if they were hoping the sun angle would take care of the roadways, but they were awefull. Well guys it was an amazing winter with you guys, I'm thinking this was the last event of the year, but who really knows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 This has been some storm I tell you what. We currently have 2" of snow on the ground here, but should have more if it wasn't melting on contact earlier, plus my elevation is rather low and sits in a valley with only 1500ft. I had to go through Kane and Mt. Jewett Pa (Over 2000ft) today and they had easily 5" of snow on the ground from the storm. Its amazing to see how elevation dependant this storm truly is. I had to go to Clarion today and it was actually raining there most of the day whereas soon as I approached some of the ridge tops, instant snow. Penndot was not doing a very good job today in my opinion, I'm wondering if they were hoping the sun angle would take care of the roadways, but they were awefull. Well guys it was an amazing winter with you guys, I'm thinking this was the last event of the year, but who really knows! Thanks for the update. I saw a PNS that said 3-6" fell up north, was wondering what you had. Hopefully Sunday isn't a tease again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 What you guys think JSTWX and MAG about this up coming warm up. You think we officially stay in spring mode or do you think we may wake ol man winter up for one more go around? From some of the longer range models I was looking at, spring looks to win out and I don't see much of any snow chances, but could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Thanks for the update. I saw a PNS that said 3-6" fell up north, was wondering what you had. Hopefully Sunday isn't a tease again! Yeah no prob, I enjoy being a weather spotter and reporting the weather on here and to noaa. Its a great hobby and wouldn't trade it for the world. 3-6" is a fairly good average for the area around northern PA. I wouldn't be surprised if some spotters in the morning report 6-8" amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 This has been some storm I tell you what. We currently have 2" of snow on the ground here, but should have more if it wasn't melting on contact earlier, plus my elevation is rather low and sits in a valley with only 1500ft. I had to go through Kane and Mt. Jewett Pa (Over 2000ft) today and they had easily 5" of snow on the ground from the storm. Its amazing to see how elevation dependant this storm truly is. I had to go to Clarion today and it was actually raining there most of the day whereas soon as I approached some of the ridge tops, instant snow. Penndot was not doing a very good job today in my opinion, I'm wondering if they were hoping the sun angle would take care of the roadways, but they were awefull. Well guys it was an amazing winter with you guys, I'm thinking this was the last event of the year, but who really knows! Well we did randomly get snow on May 11th last year, and had it around the same date back in 2007. Who knows what else this spring will pull off haha. Hopefully we do without it though. I'd say Friday is probably gonna be the last shot at any flakes till the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Well we did randomly get snow on May 11th last year, and had it around the same date back in 2007. Who knows what else this spring will pull off haha. Hopefully we do without it though. I'd say Friday is probably gonna be the last shot at any flakes till the fall. Man, I really don't buy that we have seen our last flakes until May 10 this year, lol. Spring can be a really nasty mean person around here. Edit: what do you think of last night's Euro ensembles at 240? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 Looks like some severe wx possible for monday. Cape running around 1000, and LI's -4. Temperatures around 80 int he south and int he 70's elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 12Z models so far; Saturday looks ugly up here and doesn't seem as torchy with Sunday, but still warm. lol at 360-384 on 12Z GFS....it's far enough out to be bs but spring lovers would need a suicide watch to be issued. And Eastern, looking good for the severe Monday still? - what do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 12Z models so far; Saturday looks ugly up here and doesn't seem as torchy with Sunday, but still warm. lol at 360-384 on 12Z GFS....it's far enough out to be bs but spring lovers would need a suicide watch to be issued. And Eastern, looking good for the severe Monday still? - what do you think? Lol I saw that, and am I evil for wishing it to verify haha the winter weenie talking. At least we have a severe weather threat coming up soon with the decent warmup progged. I'm for the extremes anyways, as long as the weather is interesting, I'm on it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Lol I saw that, and am I evil for wishing it to verify haha the winter weenie talking. At least we have a severe weather threat coming up soon with the decent warmup progged. I'm for the extremes anyways, as long as the weather is interesting, I'm on it! I'm the same way, love the extreme and interesting. I just lol'd at that......if that were to occur most people other than us nuts would be freaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 12Z models so far; Saturday looks ugly up here and doesn't seem as torchy with Sunday, but still warm. lol at 360-384 on 12Z GFS....it's far enough out to be bs but spring lovers would need a suicide watch to be issued. And Eastern, looking good for the severe Monday still? - what do you think? Yup Cape between 1000-2000 and li -4 to -5. Temps int he lower 80's southern pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 lolz 180-204 18Z GFS....congrats Potter, accumulating snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 raining again here in the Harrisburg area. I friggin need sun!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 raining again here in the Harrisburg area. I friggin need sun!!!! I guess Sunday afternoon. Tomorrow looks gray and gloomy, up here around 50. But Sunday looks warm, although not as warm as Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 I guess Sunday afternoon. Tomorrow looks gray and gloomy, up here around 50. But Sunday looks warm, although not as warm as Monday. it is dumping rain right now here. Doubtful we play today or even tomorrow. At least this is good for the plants and grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 it is dumping rain right now here. Doubtful we play today or even tomorrow. At least this is good for the plants and grass I think they are going to start drowning soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 it is dumping rain right now here. Doubtful we play today or even tomorrow. At least this is good for the plants and grass I can't get in my damn garden. I hope to on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 I was thinking it would be cool to do a central PA meet and greet....someplace centrally located. Maybe in May or something. Just at like a restaurant, like maybe reserve a restaurant's back room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Man what a rainy day around here. Might have to watch a couple of the local waterways (smaller rivers/streams) as they might sneak into caution stages. CCX radar estimates are pretty significant with a lot of 2" plus rain totals. Seems a bit high.. could be from brightbanding. Also noteworthy, just noticed that some ice pellets are/were mixing in with the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 I was thinking it would be cool to do a central PA meet and greet....someplace centrally located. Maybe in May or something. Just at like a restaurant, like maybe reserve a restaurant's back room. I think that is a kicka** idea! I'm sure most on here would be up for that. Side note, anyone check out the 18Z GFS, WOW a nice central and northern PA surprise! Still a long ways away but its pretty cool seeing a big snowstorm modeled for the middle of April . Though I must say, when I did play baseball in high school and a little in community college, I would be extremely annoyed by snow now, lol at how times change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted April 9, 2011 Author Share Posted April 9, 2011 I was thinking it would be cool to do a central PA meet and greet....someplace centrally located. Maybe in May or something. Just at like a restaurant, like maybe reserve a restaurant's back room. Hey that sounds like fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 I was thinking it would be cool to do a central PA meet and greet....someplace centrally located. Maybe in May or something. Just at like a restaurant, like maybe reserve a restaurant's back room. That would be a cool idea. I'd def be interested in attending if i'm able to. Naturally for a "centrally located" place I would suggest good ole State College since its geographically in the middle of the state.. but several of the regulars in here hail from the southeastern parts. I'm sure we could hash a location out when we see who all's interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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