Wintry pattern to April 5th

[Mikehobbyst]

Please provide the following highlights and what do you see ?:

Chance for a subfreezing high temp day and where ?

HECS potential - What needs to happen and how do we get there ? How does the potential look ?

What breaks down this cold pattern and what possibly could make it last much longer than expected or is something going to force it to end in two weeks ?

[scooter13]

Does anyone know when this awful pattern is going to break down and we can get more spring like weather? Are we looking at around april 5th or so? I mean the average high in April is around 60.

[NEG NAO]

with the seasonal trend being north in the 3 days previous to events this should trend north to give NYC metro a wet snow event early sunday

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs850mbTSLPp06084.gif

[IsentropicLift]

Chance for a subfreezing high temp day and where ?

From the GSP East = ~ 5%. NW of 287 = ~10-15%. ~5-10% in between. East of NYC < 5%.

HECS potential - What needs to happen and how do we get there ? How does the potential look ?

We would need the storm to come before the GFS and EC show it so that it would have a chance at getting here before most of the cold air has departed.

A low track further offshore than what the EC is showing might allow for interior sections to be cold enough for wintry weather. A track over NJ is not going to get it done. Potential from the city on eastward has to be very low. Chance for interior NJ and the lower Hudson Valley are probably around 10%. Chance of an all snow event anywhere is probably less than 5%, other than the Lakes region and far northern NE.

What breaks down this cold pattern and what possibly could make it last much longer than expected or is something going to force it to end in two weeks ?

I believe there will be a strong bombing noreaster in some form which will most likely break down the pattern much like the Boxing Day Blizzard did. As you can see below, the NAO will be going back positive right around March 30th or so. A NAO switch from strongly negative to positive is often a signal for an impending storm, most definitly our last window of oppurtunity for this season.

[jconsor]

With the strong vortex/confluence over Quebec, the seasonal trend should reverse and, if anything, I would expect the Sun event to trend south. Not expecting anything of consequence north of the Mason/Dixon line.

with the seasonal trend being north in the 3 days previous to events this should trend north to give NYC metro a wet snow event early sunday

http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06084.gif

[Stormlover74]

Basically what we've been having is spring. We don't get the pleasant 60s and 70s like other parts of the country...at least not consistently. Instead its 80 one day, snow 3 days later, heatwave a week or two after that. To me spring on the east coast means volatility

Does anyone know when this awful pattern is going to break down and we can get more spring like weather? Are we looking at around april 5th or so? I mean the average high in April is around 60.

[A-L-E-X]

With the strong vortex/confluence over Quebec, the seasonal trend should reverse and, if anything, I would expect the Sun event to trend south. Not expecting anything of consequence north of the Mason/Dixon line.

What do you think will happen with the system next week? I hope the blocking doesn't break just in time to give us a rainstorm.

[A-L-E-X]

Basically what we've been having is spring. We don't get the pleasant 60s and 70s like other parts of the country...at least not consistently. Instead its 80 one day, snow 3 days later, heatwave a week or two after that. To me spring on the east coast means volatility

This is a lot better than what we get in the latter part of April and May, which is 80s in NJ, 50s with a cold wind on LI, interrupted by 40s and rain and the obligatory flooding, of course. Spring sucks.... always has, always will.

[nzucker]

This is just absurd, an overrunning event that would be snow for the elevated NW suburbs on 4/7....850s are like -3C with 2m temps in the mid-upper 30s. Obviously just fantasy at this point but cool to see:

Turns into a coastal and buries New England:

Models seem to be showing another period of intense blocking around April 5-10 with the potential for one final storm. Very cold pattern with -20C 850s nearly reaching the southern shores of Hudson Bay.

Another snow threat is right on the heels of the overrunning/coastal system on April 7th..surface even at 32F:

I'm sure the GFS is wrong with all these specifics but interesting pattern shaping up for early spring nonetheless. After a mild start to March, this could be a delayed spring in terms of leaf-out and flowering with this cold snap being somewhat damaging and then another cold/snowy pattern showing up in April 5-10th time frame, which is usually when the spring vegetative growth really begins to accelerate. I'm already noticing damage to the daffodils in bloom here with very withered flowers from the snow last night and temperatures in the 20s last night and tonight. It's going to be much worse with Friday night and Saturday night being even colder with teens possible across the immediate suburbs and guaranteed farther north towards Poughkeepsie. Been a long time since I've seen cold like this in late March, and the worst may still await if the 0z GFS has a clue

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

This is a lot better than what we get in the latter part of April and May, which is 80s in NJ, 50s with a cold wind on LI, interrupted by 40s and rain and the obligatory flooding, of course. Spring sucks.... always has, always will.

Spring on LI can be ruff. Spring, when I was in college in Maryland was great tons of perfect days in the 70s in March and April.

I agree with the GFS based on the pattern unfortunately. Looks like we have a while to wait for real spring weather again.