The North trend thread

[Damage In Tolland]

Time to discuss reasons how and why storms trend north in la Nina seasons. And then post about it while we watch models come north this winter..sometimes probably too far north for some.

A good example of this will be the storm Dec 9-10th

[ORH_wxman]

We've seen a nice south trend in the Dec 5th system from 2 or 3 days ago.

[CoastalWx]

Time to discuss reasons how and why storms trend north in la Nina seasons.

A good example of this will be the storm Dec 9-10th

LOL, since when was that surpressed? You mean 12/5 which will be squished.

[Damage In Tolland]

We've seen a nice south trend in the Dec 5th system from 2 or 3 days ago.

I mean storms that are modelled to hit areas to our south and end up hitting us..Not a lakes cutter that we knew had no chance of cutting into Canada

[CoastalWx]

The only thing that trended north, is your hairline.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The only thing that trended north, is your hairline.

Inverted Pamela Anderson pattern.

[Damage In Tolland]

The only thing that trended north, is your hairline.

While the hair on your back trended south

[CoastalWx]

I mean storms that are modelled to hit areas to our south and end up hitting us..Not a lakes cutter that we knew had no chance of cutting into Canada

Can 12/5-6 pull one out?

[ski MRG]

The only thing that trended north, is your hairline.

LMAO

[dryslot]

Can 12/5-6 pull one out?

If it amplifies more for sure........

[Damage In Tolland]

Can 12/5-6 pull one out?

Yes we're seeing models going there now..it's a glorified Alberta clipper..and I've said all along it'sa 3-6 inch type deal ..I love the way this pattern looks starting next weekend. We're gonna be very happy over the next 25-30 days

[CoastalWx]

If it amplifies more for sure........

We'll see what the euro does. I'd like to start seeing a hint at a stronger s/w on this run. I think the fact that heights were higher out west may have allowed the s/w to dig a little deeper on this run.

[CoastalWx]

Yes we're seeing models going there now..it's a glorified Alberta clipper..and I've said all along it'sa 3-6 inch type deal ..I love the way this pattern looks starting next weekend. We're gonna be very happy over the next 25-30 days

Actually the big change is out west. I'm comparing with the 00z GFS, but the upper level low actually moves sw of CA at D5 and then finally moves into srn CA, but causes a big amplification in the ridge out west. The euro implied something similar at 00z, but not as dramatic. The 00z just moves the upper level low in a progressive fashion and no amplification.

[dryslot]

We'll see what the euro does. I'd like to start seeing a hint at a stronger s/w on this run. I think the fact that heights were higher out west may have allowed the s/w to dig a little deeper on this run.

Would help if got stronger sooner to be able to dig more then once it hits the atlantic.....

[CoastalWx]

You can see the difference in 12z (top) vs 00z (bottom)

00z

[hooralph]

Subforums FTW. This would have been a 5 page flame war by now without.

[CoastalWx]

Will brought up a good point. Check out what happens to the GOA vortex on the 12z images..especially the last two images. It almost phases with the trough off of CA and creates a huge ridge. The 00z run wants nothing to do with this.

[Damage In Tolland]

Will brought up a good point. Check out what happens to the GOA vortex on the 12z images..especially the last two images. It almost phases with the trough off of CA and creates a huge ridge. The 00z run wants nothing to do with this.

In the threat thread Will def likes our chances for 12/5 storm

[CoastalWx]

In the threat thread Will def likes our chances for 12/5 storm

Yeah it's certainly possible.

[OKpowdah]

Model prog trends don't exist

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0434(2003)018%3C0933:EFROTA%3E2.0.CO;2

[CoastalWx]

Model prog trends don't exist

http://journals.amet...ROTA%3E2.0.CO;2

Well perhaps verbatim they don't, but models tend to have biases in certain situations that cause them to trend or correct in a certain direction as we approach T=0.

[OKpowdah]

Well perhaps verbatim they don't, but models tend to have biases in certain situations that cause them to trend or correct in a certain direction as we approach T=0.

Yeah I know. Just giving Kev a hard time lol

[stormtracker]

to this whole thread.

Anyway, Euro has something for everyone!

[OKpowdah]

to this whole thread.

Anyway, Euro has something for everyone!

Not me

[Baroclinic Zone]

Not me

LOL

[Baroclinic Zone]

to this whole thread.

Anyway, Euro has something for everyone!

Classic Kev troll.

[ChrisM]

so hypothetically a storm shows up two weeks from now that is just marginally cold enough for SNE...does Kev still say it'll trend north?

[Baroclinic Zone]

so hypothetically a storm shows up two weeks from now that is just marginally cold enough for SNE...does Kev still say it'll trend north?

Nope.

[powderfreak]

so hypothetically a storm shows up two weeks from now that is just marginally cold enough for SNE...does Kev still say it'll trend north?

No we put that in the "South Trend" thread where the storm should move just far enough south to get CT in on the best dendrite growth with no chance of mixing or boundary layer issues.

However, I do agree that I bet we see a decent amount of storms come north as models over-estimate the strength of the NAO blocking. Heck, that 12/6-7 could still end up running up the Hudson Valley for all we know... and some GFS ensemble members still have a Lakes Cutter, but don't tell the weenies that.

[dryslot]

No we put that in the "South Trend" thread where the storm should move just far enough south to get CT in on the best dendrite growth with no chance of mixing or boundary layer issues.

However, I do agree that I bet we see a decent amount of storms come north as models over-estimate the strength of the NAO blocking. Heck, that 12/6-7 could still end up running up the Hudson Valley for all we know... and some GFS ensemble members still have a Lakes Cutter, but don't tell the weenies that.

Yeah, Trends were really good today, I think we see more models come on board in the next couple of days, That certainly was a weenie dream run on the 12z euro, As long as it holds on to somewhat the same solution it shows there will be a lot of happy weenies running around this weekend........