CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Is this a type of deal where we either get two moderate storms or 1 major storm? Well this all depends on timing of s/w's. The Day 5 threat isn't even a lock right now because it looks sloppy at 500mb and there are questions as to the exact track. The follow up storm seems to have more support from the pattern..but like Will said...there are timing issues. This is more or less a wait and see period. Nothing to lock in or anything like that...but just keep an eye on things. I'm sure Ray will come in and say something about "potential" and his favorite level, 500mb...but that's all we can do. It's either that or just enjoy the cold dry wx, because Spring ain't coming for a while. In fact, who kows when we'll hit 60 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 There's a D8 threat on there that is more of a clipper/miller B redevelopment type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 A bit old, but BOX seems curious... Kev beware! BY WED OR SO ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK TO RELAX AND MARITIME VORTEX TO EXIT INTO THE NORTH ATLC. THIS PATTERN WILL BE REPLACED BY A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROMOTE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND GREATER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER PREDICTABILITY WILL BE LOW IN RESPONSE TO DIFFICULTIES ASSOCIATED WITH SPLIT FLOW REGIMES. NEVERTHELESS THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT AMONG THE 00Z GUID FOR A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM AND SIGNIFICANT QPF TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED! But the temps might do us in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 tasty run for D8 again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 25, 2011 Author Share Posted March 25, 2011 Yup... at least there is something to watch. I am sooooo pumped for this weekend. Thanks for posting the model output. I'm pulling for one last hurrah for this Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 A bit old, but BOX seems curious... Kev beware! BY WED OR SO ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK TO RELAX AND MARITIME VORTEX TO EXIT INTO THE NORTH ATLC. THIS PATTERN WILL BE REPLACED BY A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROMOTE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND GREATER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER PREDICTABILITY WILL BE LOW IN RESPONSE TO DIFFICULTIES ASSOCIATED WITH SPLIT FLOW REGIMES. NEVERTHELESS THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT AMONG THE 00Z GUID FOR A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM AND SIGNIFICANT QPF TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED! But the temps might do us in... You're right to question temperatures post the Equinox any given year, but I don't think so in this case - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Well this all depends on timing of s/w's. The Day 5 threat isn't even a lock right now because it looks sloppy at 500mb and there are questions as to the exact track. The follow up storm seems to have more support from the pattern..but like Will said...there are timing issues. This is more or less a wait and see period. Nothing to lock in or anything like that...but just keep an eye on things. I'm sure Ray will come in and say something about "potential" and his favorite level, 500mb...but that's all we can do. It's either that or just enjoy the cold dry wx, because Spring ain't coming for a while. In fact, who kows when we'll hit 60 again. Ray is out of that mode again... (kidding Ray, kidding) Wait and see... patience... ah, yes... Keep posting. As far as Spring, my high Sat is forecast to be 28F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Ray is out of that mode again... (kidding Ray, kidding) Wait and see... patience... ah, yes... Keep posting. As far as Spring, my high Sat is forecast to be 28F. Well all the Spring lovers will be jumping into the Charles with 100lb dumb bells attached to their ankles. This is it, so might as well hope for something interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 One aspec that intrigues me is that well prior to the S/W dynamics coming E of the Rockies and the heights over the deep south and southeast are falling... This is R-rollback underway and we see the ridge in the west pop as a result (also reflected in the +PNA spike centered on this time). Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 You're right to question temperatures post the Equinox any given year, but I don't think so in this case - Amazing how the cold has really slapped us back to winter mode (a bit). Even with the recent temps, March is still a bit above normal (+.6 to +1.6F (or so)) for the 4 SNE sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 ...and we thought are snow banks were epic. This is the lake Tahoe area from this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Well all the Spring lovers will be jumping into the Charles with 100lb dumb bells attached to their ankles. This is it, so might as well hope for something interesting. I tend to agree for less than scientific reasons admittedly, you just get the sense this is the last ... "and the wind cries, Mary" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Well all the Spring lovers will be jumping into the Charles with 100lb dumb bells attached to their ankles. This is it, so might as well hope for something interesting. At home our local "outhouse through the ice" is still not through. 2 years ago it broke through on 3/20, last year on 3/13 We guessed today at 12:15PM, but I'm guessing it is still on top of the ice. (hick town thing....cash prizes, and beef) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 I tend to agree for less than scientific reasons admittedly, you just get the sense this is the last ... "and the wind cries, Mary" I mean all you can really say is that it looks interesting. Of course it could miss or be a cold rain, but since we are locked in a less than ideal spring pattern...no sense of really complaining. This is the hand mother nature dealt us, so might as well hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 ...and we thought are snow banks were epic. This is the lake Tahoe area from this week. They had something like that a few years ago in 2007 I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Well if the start of spring is going to be cold,, may as well be snowy. That's my motto. 33.0/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 I mean all you can really say is that it looks interesting. Of course it could miss or be a cold rain, but since we are locked in a less than ideal spring pattern...no sense of really complaining. This is the hand mother nature dealt us, so might as well hope for the best. Yeah, There really is no reason being this far out to get to emotionally invested into this storm until next week being 7 days out, This could end up going a lot of different ways from snow, snow/rain, rain or whiff.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Yeah, There really is no reason being this far out to get to emotionally invested into this storm until next week being 7 days out, This could end up going a lot of different ways from snow, snow/rain, rain or whiff.. Agreed. I know that personally, I don't want to pull myself into this, and then find myself having to slap on the razorblade wristband, while jumping in front of the acela train in the middle of a cold rainstorm. . . . Although it would be a great way to end the month, since there hasn't been anything else to talk about in March, 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 The GFS has a wet snow mauling a day 12. LOL That is after I get back from my FL exile..... Gotta love a pattern with some many threats into April anyway. Then arctic air dives in and 516 thickness over SNE on April 8th. Well this all depends on timing of s/w's. The Day 5 threat isn't even a lock right now because it looks sloppy at 500mb and there are questions as to the exact track. The follow up storm seems to have more support from the pattern..but like Will said...there are timing issues. This is more or less a wait and see period. Nothing to lock in or anything like that...but just keep an eye on things. I'm sure Ray will come in and say something about "potential" and his favorite level, 500mb...but that's all we can do. It's either that or just enjoy the cold dry wx, because Spring ain't coming for a while. In fact, who kows when we'll hit 60 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Agreed. I know that personally, I don't want to pull myself into this, and then find myself having to slap on the razorblade wristband, while jumping in front of the acela train in the middle of a cold rainstorm. . . . Although it would be a great way to end the month, since there hasn't been anything else to talk about in March, 2011. Yeah, I am not going to be sucking on the end of an exhaust pipe, Jumping off the train trestle, Kicking out the chair or placing a gun barrel in my mouth if this does not work out, Whatever happens is going to happen at this time of year as snowstorms start to become harder to come by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Hotter than average April 20 - June 1, then cool pool daily severe for a month. Big heat wave near the forth of July, average July 15-Sept 1 with 2 smaller heat waves. Big EC hurricane on Sept 5th. Another threat near the 20th. Wetter than normal month and cool/humid September in general. Long period warm dry october to Nove 10, no events, with a few air stagnation advisories under a low amplitude stubborn eastern ridge. Average November but a TG Day weekend snow storm --> colder than normal early December with 2 aditional small snow events. Winter ends at Christmass until mid February, when it comes back in roaring with a blizzard on the 20th. Two big snow bombs next March. That's what the 12z Euro indicates... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 2 heavy heavy snowstorms next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Hotter than average April 20 - June 1, then cool pool daily severe for a month. Big heat wave near the forth of July, average July 15-Sept 1 with 2 smaller heat waves. Big EC hurricane on Sept 5th. Another threat near the 20th. Wetter than normal month and cool/humid September in general. Long period warm dry october to Nove 10, no events, with a few air stagnation advisories under a low amplitude stubborn eastern ridge. Average November but a TG Day weekend snow storm --> colder than normal early December with 2 aditional small snow events. Winter ends at Christmass until mid February, when it comes back in roaring with a blizzard on the 20th. Two big snow bombs next March. That's what the 12z Euro indicates... I love a good air stagnation event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Euro ensembles definitely have each threat on there...its more defined with the first one like the OP run did....so the overall shift toward the more potent GFS is definitely evident in the ECMWF suite as a whole. I still don't really like that event personally as it seems its lacking room to get cranking...but who knows at this time range what it will look like in another day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 ...and we thought are snow banks were epic. This is the lake Tahoe area from this week. wow, im usualy not impressed by mountain snow, after all it is the mountains......but that is an awesome pic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Euro ensembles definitely have each threat on there...its more defined with the first one like the OP run did....so the overall shift toward the more potent GFS is definitely evident in the ECMWF suite as a whole. I still don't really like that event personally as it seems its lacking room to get cranking...but who knows at this time range what it will look like in another day or two. Are you talking about the Tuesday one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Are you talking about the Tuesday one? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 nice shift east on both the 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF ensemble means for the April 1st threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 nice shift east on both the 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF ensemble means for the April 1st threat. Yeah if we "play our cards right" maybe we'll get lucky. That was for Will..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Yeah if we "play our cards right" maybe we'll get lucky. That was for Will..lol. Sneaky and cute... ...any red flags attm with this one? Ones that scream "no way will it snow"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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