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Tulip Trouncer Threat - End of March/ Early April


Baroclinic Zone

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28, Sn+. Numerous snowshowers.

Had those come through here - very convective in nature with dark, billowing cumiliform clouds. Heaviest snow squall of the season by far came thru Lenox around 12:30 PM with white out conditions and visibility down to around 200 yards or so. People were nervously breaking and had their flashers on while driving US 7&20 near town at the height of the squall. It was short lived and only briefly whitened ground before moving out. Man I wish I had my camera.

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12z Euro is arriving a little more defined with the GFS' D5 deal

It has a SWFE type look to it, with the low coming out of the OH valley.

Was just going to say this.120h has an open ULL in WI with associated SLP over KY. Lots of confluence over the NE with the huge closed ULL in the Canadian Maritime's.

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What a mess to try and figure out what the shortwaves will do. Yesterday it seemed like this current shortwave might deamplify, but now it does enough to try and clip us with some snow and rain. The last of the shortwaves (and perhaps the big daddy) rounds the bend and grazes us on the euro and GFS. Timing difference are quite significant too.

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What a mess to try and figure out what the shortwaves will do. Yesterday it seemed like this current shortwave might deamplify, but now it does enough to try and clip us with some snow and rain. The last of the shortwaves (and perhaps the big daddy) rounds the bend and grazes us on the euro and GFS. Timing difference are quite significant too.

Is this a type of deal where we either get two moderate storms or 1 major storm?

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What a mess to try and figure out what the shortwaves will do. Yesterday it seemed like this current shortwave might deamplify, but now it does enough to try and clip us with some snow and rain. The last of the shortwaves (and perhaps the big daddy) rounds the bend and grazes us on the euro and GFS. Timing difference are quite significant too.

Looks like the first one is still deamplifying as it nears us, but it definitely does it slower than before....so it holds together enough to get a weak SWFE out of it. The dynamics as modeled look pretty meager though so its probably not much there...maybe a sloppy 1-3" for high terrain. That can all change of course.

There is definitely a spacing issue with the shortwave behind it. Its going to be a mess to figure out.

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Looks like the first one is still deamplifying as it nears us, but it definitely does it slower than before....so it holds together enough to get a weak SWFE out of it. The dynamics as modeled look pretty meager though so its probably not much there...maybe a sloppy 1-3" for high terrain. That can all change of course.

There is definitely a spacing issue with the shortwave behind it. Its going to be a mess to figure out.

Yeah the first s/w cuts pretty far north...not the best looking scenario, but the one behind it is rather intriguing. It's just a timing disaster now, but I guess we have "some" potential here.

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