ski MRG Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Nice to see the long range Euro finally ridding ourselves of useless cold. Once it snows it is no longer useless and for that matter useful since the dirty deed has been done. No such thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 No such thing. Sorry....cold windy days as we approach April have no appeal to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Nice to see the long range Euro finally ridding ourselves of useless cold. Once it snows it is no longer useless and for that matter useful since the dirty deed has been done. Euro doesn't look warm at all thru day 10..and the weeklies are cold thru week 4. no spring this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Euro doesn't look warm at all thru day 10..and the weeklies are cold thru week 4. no spring this year Weeklies have a terrible record. Per weeklies February would have rocked....not so. March would have rocked. Not so. D10 Euro has massive warmth covering most of USA by d10 and us shortly thereafter. Ensembles similar. This storm will break the pattern. Despite all this cold wx, most stations are around normal for the month. Maybe they'll finish -1. Not enough to make March snowy typically and sure enough, it hasn't. Weeklies again have a not much better than chance record as does most guidance beyond d7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Euro doesn't look warm at all thru day 10..and the weeklies are cold thru week 4. no spring this year Despite the cold, we have bare ground and 2 days after the late week event if it happens we'll still have it. Sun angle cannot be denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Weeklies have a terrible record. Per weeklies February would have rocked....not so. March would have rocked. Not so. D10 Euro has massive warmth covering most of USA by d10 and us shortly thereafter. Ensembles similar. This storm will break the pattern. Despite all this cold wx, most stations are around normal for the month. Maybe they'll finish -1. Not enough to make March snowy typically and sure enough, it hasn't. Weeklies again have a not much better than chance record as does most guidance beyond d7. Weeklies have actually been very good the entire winter including Feb and March. Ask Scooter. They had the first couple weeks of March with a positive NAO and above normal while the ensembles kept saying cold and snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Weeklies have actually been very good the entire winter including Feb and March. Ask Scooter. They had the first couple weeks of March with a positive NAO and above normal while the ensembles kept saying cold and snowy. They were good with the blocking pattern, but from later Feb on..haven't been so hot. We'll see...I wouldn't say bone chilling cold, but they looked below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Still a lot of divergence in the models. I think the second low will happen, but where it tracks and intensity are questionable. I think we still need to be concerned about a solution that could be more liquid, but still nice to see many solutions se of the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Sorry....cold windy days as we approach April have no appeal to me. Lol. Cold and quite windy @ 2k. Even had a little blowing and drifting Snow in Peru. Winter is still here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Wbz reported a run on structural support beams at home depot. Apparently people are rushing to protect their houses from the heavy snow. Considering that around this time on the last storm the euro was showing some type of hit strange it's so flat. Back to too many cooks in the kitchen with all these short waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Wbz reported a run on structural support beams at home depot. Apparently people are rushing to protect their houses from the heavy snow. Considering that around this time on the last storm the euro was showing some type of hit strange it's so flat. Back to too many cooks in the kitchen with all these short waves. The euro op has that problem....lots of s/w's. The ensembles still key in on that second low, but even the 06z GFS is doing it as well..it's got a 3rd low, as the second low gives us some precip. We definitely want a more consolidated s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 heading to cannon mt this weekend.... could be the nice ending to the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 00z Ukie is a 968mb bomb too. EWR to about BVY from 120 to 132hr. This and last night's GGEM would be excellent. Still hope for the interior. I'm not sure why folks are more worried about an inland runner than a whiff... whiff seems much, much more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The euro op has that problem....lots of s/w's. The ensembles still key in on that second low, but even the 06z GFS is doing it as well..it's got a 3rd low, as the second low gives us some precip. We definitely want a more consolidated s/w. Op runs are higher resolution or same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I think some of the issue is there continues be low height anomalies modeled upstream into ND and all the way into the PAC NW of Canada. I think we'd rather have a stout ridge progressing gradually east as opposed to the anomalous ridging remaining so far west and south. This low height anomalies allow for subtle shortwaves to disturb the trough and not allow a single big storm to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Op runs are higher resolution or same? Euro ensembles have lower resolution than the OP..but still quite good....something like 25-30 km horizontal. The Euro ensemble members actually have higher resolution than the OP GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I think some of the issue is there continues be low height anomalies modeled upstream into ND and all the way into the PAC NW of Canada. I think we'd rather have a stout ridge progressing gradually east as opposed to the anomalous ridging remaining so far west and south. This low height anomalies allow for subtle shortwaves to disturb the trough and not allow a single big storm to develop. I'm sure we're going to see more waffling over the next two days. It's a complicated pattern that's going to be a pain to figure out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Wbz reported a run on structural support beams at home depot. Apparently people are rushing to protect their houses from the heavy snow. Considering that around this time on the last storm the euro was showing some type of hit strange it's so flat. Back to too many cooks in the kitchen with all these short waves. Merely to tie nooses. The later report also reported a run on ropes and chairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Euro ensembles have lower resolution than the OP..but still quite good....something like 25-30 km horizontal. The Euro ensemble members actually have higher resolution than the OP GFS. Thanks. Surprisingly easy question but tough to find the answer online. With many potential s/w I think we will see the same contamination issues until 72-96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Thanks. Surprisingly easy question but tough to find the answer online. With many potential s/w I think we will see the same contamination issues until 72-96 I agree, And thats why i won't take interest until that time frame, There is to much wave interference right now and it will get sorted out over the next few days, This may come down to the last 24 hrs before it is sorted out with its complexity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 9” of snow for ORH seems hefty relative to the 06z synoptic look of that model. I hope we don’t get that – not that my druthers mean a hoot. No DG if that happens. A fresh 9” of compressible snow will be too much of a pain in the arse for me. Anyway, NCEP didn’t say so during this morning’s Preliminary Discussion, but they did hit it hard yesterday that data sparseness in the N Pacific has been assisting the models toward throwing off varied solutions. Looking over things … that may still be the case until sometime tomorrow when dynamics start coming into the denser sounding grid out west. The 18z run of the GFS, yesterday, was a juggernaut April event, whereas the 00z run unraveled – to some degree. 06z came back about half way. Meanwhile, the Euro, after 3 consecutive runs of epic proportion, now has puked out a run that shows a multiple low, sheared out suppression, and not much of any meaningful impact because of it (it should be noted that at D5.5 lead, this is still not quite into the ECMWF scary accurate wheelhouse ). The UKMET has shown 3 runs in a row, including the 00z run, a mega bomb. Last night’s run gave the best hope for snow zealots, showing – or suggesting rather – at least a start of heavy snow, then rain, ending as snow, as a 970-975mb hyper low moves bodily across the area. It brings about a -3 to -4SD closing 500mb center right over or just under our latitude, too!! Buuuuut, as NCEP noted yesterday, and I agree per my own experience, that model can get a tad excited at times, only to pull back toward something less dramatic in nearer terms – I’d like to see some of the other guidance show a clearer trend toward it before going that extreme. So all told … we are pretty much nowhere closer deterministically per the last 12 hours of runs, except to say that from this Thursday through about next Monday or Tuesday, we are clearly in the least in a storm-probable pattern with unfortunately less certitude as to exactly what form, and when, that will arrive. Regarding that time range... there are hints, actually, hints only that there may yet be one last try later next week. Beyond that, the overnight teleconnectors are still hammering a converging signal toward warmth. It's not anywhere in the next 10 days so we are in wait ... But, the -1 to -1.5SD NAO by 12 days from becomes that much positive, and the PNA does the same in falling from postive into negative phase state. That combination of factors does not not not portent a colder than normal pattern for mid April, but rather a warm one. We probably won't see very shimmeringly obvious portrails of this in any deterministic guidance for the time being... But I do suspect that as we climb up the seasonal ladder into Spring and get past the first week of April (~ 10th), at some point around then there will probably be some kind of mass modality in the deterministic guidance to drub up an eastern ridge that is warmer than seasonal norms. In the meantime, this is all kind of a miny winter refit - may as well enjoy the opportunity for monitoring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 SREFs look alright...still would like to see that lead shortwave less wound up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 Roll with it. New thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 923 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 VALID 12Z FRI APR 01 2011 - 12Z MON APR 04 2011 PRELIMINARY UPDATE... USED A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z/28 ECMWF AND ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE 00Z/28 GEFS MEAN CLUSTERED WELL WITH THE ECENS MEAN...WITH THE 06Z/28 GFS OFTEN A GOOD FIT TO THE PATTERN WITH ITS SHORTWAVES. THE 00Z/28 ECMWF WAS IN BETTER HARMONY WITH THE MEANS OVERALL...HOWEVER...THAN THE 06Z/28 GFS...SO WHEN THE ECMWF SHORTWAVES FIT THE MEAN...INCORPORATED ITS MASS FIELDS INTO THE MANUAL BLEND. THE 00Z/28 ECMWF WAS A FAST OUTLIER WITH THE SHORTWAVE STREAKING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...SO RELIED ON THE ECENS MEAN THEN. THE DEEP CYCLONE THE ECMWF DEPICTS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD MAY ALSO NOT COME TOGETHER...BUT AT LEAST THE MEANS INDICATE A MAJOR SYNOPTIC WAVE IN THAT LOCATION...SO GAVE THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SOME CREDIT. ALL IN ALL...THE PATTERN HAS A MORE WINTRY THAN SUMMERY LOOK...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH THE CHANCE OF SEVERAL MORE FROZEN PRECIPITATION EVENTS AT RELATIVELY LOW LATITUDES INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF APRIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 http://www.americanw...ch-early-april/ Roll with it. New thread. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 Why? 1000 post limits. Server gets bogged down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Why? Bob knows how to work his juju. Don't ask questions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 Bob knows how to work his juju. Don't ask questions It hasn't failed me yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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