ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 NAM is looking good for #2 so far The amplitude of the western ridge is impressive and continues to be on most runs. I'd probably like to see the first wave a shade flatter, but otherwise the NAM looks like it would be pretty interesting post-84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Too close? You would do ok, but that would suck for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The amplitude of the western ridge is impressive and continues to be on most runs. I'd probably like to see the first wave a shade flatter, but otherwise the NAM looks like it would be pretty interesting post-84. Will, are you more worried about an out to see bomb or a lakes cutter for storm 2 at this moment? Which is more likely to happen IYO? Also if you could... could you summarize where each model have storm number two going so far?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Will, are you more worried about an out to see bomb or a lakes cutter for storm 2 at this moment? Which is more likely to happen IYO? Also if you could... could you summarize where each model have storm number two going so far?? A lakes cutter or a whiff is pretty unlikely, but there is concern for a hugger, which would still cause extensive p type issues for a rather large portion of the area. 12z UK was warm rain, 18z GFS was a good snow event, 12z EURO was whiff (odd soloution) and the Canadian was a good snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Shouldn't we be coming up on 00z models soon? I'm going to wishcast this one into a Boston blizzard, even if all of my friends think I'm crazy for it. A lakes cutter or a whiff is pretty unlikely, but there is concern for a hugger, which would still cause extensive p type issues for a rather large portion of the area. 12z UK was warm rain, 18z GFS was a good snow event, 12z EURO was whiff (odd soloution) and the Canadian was a good snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Shouldn't we be coming up on 00z models soon? I'm going to wishcast this one into a Boston blizzard, even if all of my friends think I'm crazy for it. Yea, GFS is running... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 WOW....can't believe how slow that system is, just outside of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 GFS looks like its not quite a cleanly phased system...tries to get going late and gives some moderate qpf, but likely in a fairly trivial late season event. 3-5 type for high terrain and less lower. Close call though and at this stage, that's all you can really hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 GFS looks like its not quite a cleanly phased system...tries to get going late and gives some moderate qpf, but likely in a fairly trivial late season event. 3-5 type for high terrain and less lower. Close call though and at this stage, that's all you can really hope for. That is a trend that I like relative to my locale.....all set w the 18z GFS Boxing day redux. That is very close to monster that would crush me if it phased a bit cleaner and faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 So less promising than the 18z? That is a trend that I like relative to my locale.....all set w the 18z GFS Boxing day redux. That is very close to monster that would crush me if it phased a bit cleaner and faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 GFS ensembles are a shade inside the BM at 120h...so more amped than the OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Nice potent little low on the GGEM tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 So less promising than the 18z? Technically, yes....but I like that trend btr for eastern areas. GFS ensembles are a shade inside the BM at 120h...so more amped than the OP run. Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The 18Z op GFS run was incredible ...nice hit from the main storm and then an overunning snowfall two days later on Monday. Figures that it wouldn't last on the 0Z run. LOL GFS ensembles are a shade inside the BM at 120h...so more amped than the OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 GEM sucks for alot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Nice potent little low on the GGEM tonight. Canadian has been a decent hit for a couple runs now (at least interior). Quite similar to the 12z run...though 12z might have shot E a shade at the very last 2nd, but a trivial detail at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 It was kinda weird, but a good hit here. GEM sucks for alot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 00z Ukie is a 968mb bomb too. EWR to about BVY from 120 to 132hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 00z Ukie is a 968mb bomb too. EWR to about BVY from 120 to 132hr. Much btr than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Just a 500 mile shift in one run. ...gotta stop this trend or it will be out near the wreck of the Titanic on the 12z run. quote name='dendrite' timestamp='1301291510' post='588024'] 00z Ukie is a 968mb bomb too. EWR to about BVY from 120 to 132hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I keep looking at the first sw whiffing (which is good) and thinking that the whole event is a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 No way this run will be too far west....trough still + @ 96 hrs...almost neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Will, I think this run will tru to get it done late, but prob JUST too late. I like the trend to a late bloomer. Looks pretty close to the GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Trough is definitely not deep enough on this run of the Euro...storm escapes to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 There's another much more potent piece of energy that dives down at 120-126 but can't do much because of the trough being too far E...its almost like 3 waves now...first one is gone by 84-90h, then the 2nd one is not defined well, the trough digs and the vorticity really isn't there for a larger system....so it misses to the E and then the 3rd much stronger stuff tries to come in on the back side but we're well E by that point and it produces an inverted trough over VA. Just a bizarre set of shortwave interaction there. There's still a lot of amplitude to that western ridge, so the longwave pattern is definitely uite favorable for a decent sized system. We'll just have to monitor the shortwaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 What I find interesting is that the past 6 or so Euro runs have been going back and forth on the Wed night-Thu event. The 0z runs have (with one exception) been suppressed, while the 12z runs have been more amplified and have brought at least some QPF into SNE. The same tendencies happened with the Mar 23-24 event - the 0z runs were usually more suppressed, while the 12z runs were more amplified. In that case, the more suppressed runs were more correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 All quiet since 2AM = not good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 All quiet since 2AM = not good? Everyone savng their energy for shoveling later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Things still looking good for a big hit on Fri/Sat. Euro in it's usual waffle mode at this time range. Suspect we see it really latch on either at 12z or 00z tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Things still looking good for a big hit on Fri/Sat. Euro in it's usual waffle mode at this time range. Suspect we see it really latch on either at 12z or 00z tonight Nice to see the long range Euro finally ridding ourselves of useless cold. Once it snows it is no longer useless and for that matter useful since the dirty deed has been done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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