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Tulip Trouncer Threat - End of March/ Early April


Baroclinic Zone

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Will, does the timing still look like Thursday night/Fri AM? any significant spread in model timing?

It looks more like Friday into Sat morning actually...but there is definitely a 24h spread on some of the guidance but most focus on that time.

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Nope...if this storm pans out, it could get us into the top 10, but it would need to be over 6" of snow.

That's certainly possible, even in a less amplified setup...but I'm starting to feel this storm will blow up into something big and we'll have to hope its not too far W.

Agreed, but again, I like seeing the negative NAO over-performing right now. This has the makings for something big for us

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Agreed, but again, I like seeing the negative NAO over-performing right now. This has the makings for something big for us

There's a little ridging or mini block stretching back up into Hudson Bay and NE Canada, which does help in making this more difficult to cut way west, but I'd feel a little better if it was more defined.

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I think it's a pretty safe bet that this is the last shot for just about all of sne.

Disagree, I think major -EPO cold pattern around April 5-10, another chance for snow. GFS has been looking chilly in the long range, as if we are going into winter instead of out of it.

Nope...if this storm pans out, it could get us into the top 10, but it would need to be over 6" of snow.

That's certainly possible, even in a less amplified setup...but I'm starting to feel this storm will blow up into something big and we'll have to hope its not too far W.

I still another 10" to get to 57-58, 13" to get to 95-96, and 20" to get to 60-61, the top winter.

Central Park needs 14", I believe, to break 95-96.

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Its my moms 66th today. I'm blessed every day that she's here given her condition.

Happy B-Day to yours as well.

That's funny

My mom turned 73 today. She was a baby in 1938 and slept on a proch while the storm blew around her in Everett, MA

Then she moved to Foxboro, now liven in RI. Took her out today for lunch.

Anyway, hope this can come true:

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"What happened in December the Winter will remember."

Dec. pitched a shutout for 3 weeks and then bang. Same for March?

Despite the shutout early on in December, it eventually came through with the minor events (major on the Cape) before Xmas and then the Boxing Day storm...so the month as a whole was definitely below avg temps and above avg snow.

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Despite the shutout early on in December, it eventually came through with the minor events (major on the Cape) before Xmas and then the Boxing Day storm...so the month as a whole was definitely below avg temps and above avg snow.

Oh' I know it was cold, I only inferred shutout in regards to major snow events.

I remember many on the board lamenting the wasted cold.

edit: I personally believe this winter cannot end with a whimper.

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Will is secretly gung-ho on this and his weenie is @ attention; he tries not to tip his hand, but I know him well enough to see right through it. :lol:

I'm pretty confident (for a 4-5 day lead) of a large system along the eastern seaboard. So I think that's one big key to have in our favor...less worry about a strung out wave over Bermuda. But I'm definitely worried about rain and a Hudson Valley runner or something.

Still a chance we get wave interference too and find the perfect screw spot for a weak strung out wave...but I think that is "threading the needle" in reverse so to speak.

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I'm pretty confident (for a 4-5 day lead) of a large system along the eastern seaboard. So I think that's one big key to have in our favor...less worry about a strung out wave over Bermuda. But I'm definitely worried about rain and a Hudson Valley runner or something.

Still a chance we get wave interference too and find the perfect screw spot for a weak strung out wave...but I think that is "threading the needle" in reverse so to speak.

so....................you're saying we gotta chance?

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GON is probably at or near record totals already..

the records I found show this, but they might be incomplete or inaccurate

77-78: 48.1"

93-94: 48.9"

95-96: 54.5"

02-03: 48.8"

04-05: 50" (might be incomplete)

I have ~53.5" so far I think so GON might be close

Their records are pretty bad, but I found 56.9" in 1993-1994 and 56.5" in 2004-2005.

And just found 71.4" for '95-'96.

http://www.wrcc.dri....iMAIN.pl?ct3207

Scroll down on the left to "monthly totals" under snowfall and it should list each season (along with the monthly totals too)...but they are missing a lot of data.

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GON is probably at or near record totals already..

the records I found show this, but they might be incomplete or inaccurate

77-78: 48.1"

93-94: 48.9"

95-96: 54.5"

02-03: 48.8"

04-05: 50" (might be incomplete)

I have ~53.5" so far I think so GON might be close

How much did they get in 57-58, 60-61, and 66-67? Do records go back that far?

Amazing to think the record in 95-96 would be 20" less than Central Park, but that's Groton for you.

The 69.5" I've measured here is the most since 95-96...I can only think of four winters that had more snow than this season here: 57-58, 60-61, 66-67, and 95-96. Nothing else really that close, maybe 47-48 and 93-94 were into the 60" range.

EDIT: I guess they did have 71.5" in 95-96, which is only 4" short of KNYC.

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so....................you're saying we gotta chance?

Yeah its worth tracking right now...until it isn't. But right now its certainly an event worth tracking. There are some players on the table that make it a viable threat. Obviously the lower down and closer to the coast you are, the more you will be fighting climo, but you might as well hope for something...it sure beats 40F and a wind swept rain (at least I think most of us would prefer snow over that)

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Yeah its worth tracking right now...until it isn't. But right now its certainly an event worth tracking. There are some players on the table that make it a viable threat. Obviously the lower down and closer to the coast you are, the more you will be fighting climo, but you might as well hope for something...it sure beats 40F and a wind swept rain (at least I think most of us would prefer snow over that)

Then its a legit threat, thanks Will.

By the way for the other Fairfieldians, and I know we have a few, DQ opened up for the season tonight, and Orange Julius is there too!

Fukkk it, let it snow.

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Their records are pretty bad, but I found 56.9" in 1993-1994 and 56.5" in 2004-2005.

And just found 71.4" for '95-'96.

http://www.wrcc.dri....iMAIN.pl?ct3207

Scroll down on the left to "monthly totals" under snowfall and it should list each season (along with the monthly totals too)...but they are missing a lot of data.

Nice find! The source I have has some months that that is missing, but that one has November and December 1995 which mine appears to be missing, which brings 95-96 up to 71.4" .. Between the two source I should have pretty good records for GON, probably still a little incomplete

For example .. i have some data from nov dec 1994.. which yours appears to be missing, as well as some data from 06-07 and 05-06. I'm going to try and combine the two

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I know this went back a couple pages while I was eating dinner, but I'd ask for people to put the winter grading in this thread:

http://www.americanw...de-this-winter/

Even though it can mildly be related to "storm or no storm" with this current threat. Also I know its after 18z so its the "Dead period", but it would keep the threads easier to read.

My apologies Will, I kind of figured that after I posted it didn't belong here.

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