ORH_wxman Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Wow, GFS has the April 1st bomb too...its a monster Miller A. Its a CT Valley runner though and most of NE changes to rain. Monster snowstorm for NY State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Wow, GFS has the April 1st bomb too...its a monster Miller A. Its a CT Valley runner though and most of NE changes to rain. Monster snowstorm for NY State. Yeah, just saw that too. Congrats BGM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Quite the difference between the 18z GFS op and 18z GFS ensembles. The op has a lousy SWFE, while the ensembles show no sign of a parent low into the lakes and have a cstl moving se of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Quite the difference between the 18z GFS op and 18z GFS ensembles. The op have a lousy SWFE, while the ensembles show no sign of a parent low into the lakes and have a cstl moving se of the BM. They have the 2nd larger system too. Looks like the mean track is over the Cape or somewhere just SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Quite the difference between the 18z GFS op and 18z GFS ensembles. The op have a lousy SWFE, while the ensembles show no sign of a parent low into the lakes and have a cstl moving se of the BM. Btw, as you said the quiet pattern for AK would last for a while but it looks to come to an end shortly. .LONG TERM FORECAST... THE WEATHER AND WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL REMAIN IN WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS INDICATE THE STORM TRACK WILL MOVE FROM THE CONUS WEST COAST TO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY MID WEEK. IF THIS WORKS OUT IT WILL MEAN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND STRONGER WINDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND GULF OF ALASKA. Even in a quiet pattern the mountains wring out the snow. 7" worth of snow showers today. My friends were disappointed it was so light, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Btw, as you said the quiet pattern for AK would last for a while but it looks to come to an end shortly. .LONG TERM FORECAST... THE WEATHER AND WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL REMAIN IN WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS INDICATE THE STORM TRACK WILL MOVE FROM THE CONUS WEST COAST TO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY MID WEEK. IF THIS WORKS OUT IT WILL MEAN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND STRONGER WINDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND GULF OF ALASKA. Even in a quiet pattern the mountains wring out the snow. 7" worth of snow showers today. My friends were disappointed it was so light, Yeah I think I mentioned possibly the end of this weekend or early next week. It's not a super active pattern, but as long as you have troughing and instability there..you'll squeeze out some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 They have the 2nd larger system too. Looks like the mean track is over the Cape or somewhere just SE. Well there a two storms possibly on the horizon regardless. They could turn out lousy, but it would be nice if we got a juicy version of the 18z GFS ensemble day 6 storm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Yeah I think I mentioned possibly the end of this weekend or early next week. It's not a super active pattern, but as long as you have troughing and instability there..you'll squeeze out some snow. You did indeed say that. It strikes me that the Anchorage NWS office would be a cool CWA to forecast for. Such a huge area with different major mountain ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 You did indeed say that. It strikes me that the Anchorage NWS office would be a CWA to forecast for. Such a huge area with different major mountain ranges. I used to work with someone who is up at NWS Anchorage right now. He actually likes it up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 I used to work with someone who is up at NWS Anchorage right now. He actually likes it up there. What's not to like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Man, that pure, crisp, smoke filled aroma is in the air tonight....makes me feel as though snow is imminent. Love that smell. 33.0\30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Well there a two storms possibly on the horizon regardless. They could turn out lousy, but it would be nice if we got a juicy version of the 18z GFS ensemble day 6 storm next week. I think the first storm is more likely to get crushed than the 2nd one...that first one is trying to find some room to amplify in between the two more potent waves...so I'm leaning toward it deamplifying. The April 1-2 storm seems to have the best synoptic support to it. But given the time range we are working with, I won't be surprised at any outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Man, that pure, crisp, smoke filled aroma is in the air tonight....makes me feel as though snow is imminent. Love that smell. 33.0\30 Unless you walk back into your place and find that your kitchen is on fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Unless you walk back into your place and find that your kitchen is on fire. LOL Usually from chimneys, you dolt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 The sun still did a number to the snow pack even though we were in the 30's most of the day. It actually looked quite inviting outside with sunny skies and just some afternoon cumulus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 I didn't get a chance to take much a look at models today, but just from the discussion, it sounds like they're still flattening the 29-30 shortwave, and then the next in line gets a shot as the PV pulls further north / -NAO relaxes. So as with any pattern change, mostly a timing issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 The sun still did a number to the snow pack even though we were in the 30's most of the day. It actually looked quite inviting outside with sunny skies and just some afternoon cumulus LOL. Did you not go outside today? Or are you just waiting for the air temp to get into the safe 70's before risking an outdoor adventure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 LOL Usually from chimneys, you dolt. ya, love that smell in advance of a good snowstorm when you have that thickening cirrus overhead along with the fading sun. winds are near calm due to low level inversion from the arctic high in place which helps to enhance that smokey goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 LOL. Did you not go outside today? Or are you just waiting for the air temp to get into the safe 70's before risking an outdoor adventure? Yeah actually I need dps up in the 60's before heading out now Nah, I got outside for a bit. Just saying it looked more inviting than it felt once I stepped outside. I can safely lose the jacket, but it's still long sleeves weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 ya, love that smell in advance of a good snowstorm when you have that thickening cirrus overhead along with the fading sun. winds are near calm due to low level inversion from the arctic high in place which helps to enhance that smokey goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 ya, love that smell in advance of a good snowstorm when you have that thickening cirrus overhead along with the fading sun. winds are near calm due to low level inversion from the arctic high in place which helps to enhance that smokey goodness. Can't get enough of that...makes me feel like a kid, again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Can't get enough of that...makes me feel like a kid, again. I usually associate that smell with the start of the winter season, not so much the end. I guess you just get used it after a few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 I usually associate that smell with the start of the winter season, not so much the end. I guess you just get used it after a few months. Yea....late fall...I think because the sun angle is lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Yea....late fall...I think because the sun angle is lower. More people use their fireplaces too around the holiday season from Thanksgiving to Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Wow....walked out to a fresh coating of snow....missed that lol Sneaky squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 ya, love that smell in advance of a good snowstorm when you have that thickening cirrus overhead along with the fading sun. winds are near calm due to low level inversion from the arctic high in place which helps to enhance that smokey goodness. LOL, that's an ideal description preceding a snowstorm. All us sickos thought the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 This is bringing me back to the Decembers of 07 and 08. Classics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 cricketts? Or are those spring peepers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Aside from the smell...the sudden quiet JUST before flakes reach the ground. It's magical and each time like Ray I am brought back to childhood.....holding my grandmother's hand walking as snow begins circa early 1950s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Christmas Eve 1978...fit that description for us. Mid 30s high, smelled like it was gonna snow as I accompanied my Mom anfd sister on one last shopping foray to the plaza. Forecast was for turning to rain though..but it never did. Now we have that damp mildewish early spring smell, hot sun angle etc...but you know it can turn on a dime and snow like hell yet because the upper level airmasses are still vodka sometimes in April. Aside from the smell...the sudden quiet JUST before flakes reach the ground. It's magical and each time like Ray I am brought back to childhood.....holding my grandmother's hand walking as snow begins circa early 1950s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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