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Tulip Trouncer Threat - End of March/ Early April


Baroclinic Zone

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I love temps hovering in the low 40s with 30mph NW winds when it's supposed to be 55F...

Too bad your area is a snow hole, I've had over a foot of snow in Feb/March with more coming this Wednesday if 12z Euro and 18z NAM are correct. Sucks when you live in the swamp...

And yes, it's getting time for a drive up north...Snowman.gif

ok. When did Dobbs Ferry become the orh of the hudson valley? How much snow have you had this season, im over 70? Are you thumping your chest regarding your 13 inches of snow in the last 60 days?? When am I getting my beer?

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ok. When did Dobbs Ferry become the orh of the hudson valley? How much snow have you had this season, im over 70? Are you thumping your chest regarding your 13 inches of snow in the last 60 days?? When am I getting my beer?

I've had about 70" Joe...check the signature. I feel like I undermeasured Boxing Day since Hastings reported 18", not sure though. I had 68" last year though while you probably enjoyed the dryslot in 12/19 and then the rain in 2/25 Snowicane....So yeah, we're doing pretty well here. And more is coming to those who truly believe Snowman.gif

It's still double the snow you've had in the swamp, Joe. I asked you about getting together to hang out and drink beer the weekend of April 9th, you never answered. Is that good for you or not?

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Meh, I have had 5.7 inches of snow in the last 55 days.............i am ready for some warmth, its over down here.

Blessed at 40 to have my 90 yr old grandmother here to visit for the day. Italian blood, red wine and great food FTW, one sister is 99 the other 92, anyhow 38 now but with the strong early spring sun and little wind it feels more like 50. Kids outside playing, chile cooking for the second day, and bloodys about to commence. Next three days looks even warmer, get out there and enjoy it!!

What would you rather have, a foot of snow thats gone in two days, or a national championship for UCONN?

:thumbsup:

42

sunny

Yanks on the brink of 28

WOW

45 sunny

feels tons warmer, just a perfect day and the sun is really strong.

:sun: :sun: :sun:

WOW

what a beautiful day!!

stellar afternoon with light winds full , strong march sun!! As expected forecasted high of 42 was not even close, got up to 47 now settled back to 45 but felt a lot better than that.......hope everyone actually got outside to enjoy it!

50+ next 3 days.....just heaven.

Are you just copying and pasting this post over and over? This is like the same thing you've been posting 5x a day the last 30 days

Lol.... good analysis of the storm threat in 5 days.... We do have an obs thread going you know

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I've had about 70" Joe...check the signature. I feel like I undermeasured Boxing Day since Hastings reported 18", not sure though. I had 68" last year though while you probably enjoyed the dryslot in 12/19 and then the rain in 2/25 Snowicane....So yeah, we're doing pretty well here. And more is coming to those who truly believe Snowman.gif

It's still double the snow you've had in the swamp, Joe. I asked you about getting together to hang out and drink beer the weekend of April 9th, you never answered. Is that good for you or not?

Thats Masters weekend! So if there is a TV near by that is just fine.

Enjoy your blizzard.

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You guys need to stop arguing about obs and if it feels like spring or not. This thread is specifically titled toward the threat of a late season snow event...that may or may not pan out, but its the discussion thread regarding that threat.

We have a late Mar/early April obs thread too here:

We also have a thread for those who want to skip spring and talk about summer here:

If you want to dicsuss SNE severe wx, here is a thread for that too:

In light of the increased trolling in recent days/weeks, I ask that we keep the threads on topic. We can't be here 24/7 either to moderate every posts (and frankly, why would anyone want to be?)...so report off topic posts if you have a big problem with them. I'd rather it doesn't come to that because it would be better time spent talking about the storm threat.

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You guys need to stop arguing about obs and if it feels like spring or not. This thread is specifically titled toward the threat of a late season snow event...that may or may not pan out, but its the discussion thread regarding that threat.

We have a late Mar/early April obs thread too here:

We also have a thread for those who want to skip spring and talk about summer here:

If you want to dicsuss SNE severe wx, here is a thread for that too:

In light of the increased trolling in recent days/weeks, I ask that we keep the threads on topic. We can't be here 24/7 either to moderate every posts (and frankly, why would anyone want to be?)...so report off topic posts if you have a big problem with them. I'd rather it doesn't come to that because it would be better time spent talking about the storm threat.

And where does all the non weather stuff go that's been posted here today that has no relation to obs or future snows?

I appreciate you stepping up to moderate.

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And where does all the non weather stuff go that's been posted here today that has no relation to obs or future snows?

I appreciate you stepping up to moderate.

Obs/banter thread is where stuff not related to the storm threat should be posted

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The forecast for later this week is still pretty challenging. Lots of options on the table. I think seeing the Wed system more amped up is a bad sign for the Friday/Saturday megastorm Kevin is hyping.

I would agree, we do not want that one to be in the perfect screw spot for us...potent enough to mess with the storm behind it, yet not amped enough as to give us no snow. If it amps up enough, it would actually give us a nice snow event like the GFS and Euro at different times had shown in the past several days. I think in the end, we have enough of an amped up western ridge to make the 2nd storm the main player, but there's certainly a chance of wave interference in this whole thing.

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I would agree, we do not want that one to be in the perfect screw spot for us...potent enough to mess with the storm behind it, yet not amped enough as to give us no snow. If it amps up enough, it would actually give us a nice snow event like the GFS and Euro at different times had shown in the past several days. I think in the end, we have enough of an amped up western ridge to make the 2nd storm the main player, but there's certainly a chance of wave interference in this whole thing.

Will do we have any past analogs for this storm? particularly any setups this year that we could look back to? Also, when do you think we'll start getting a good feel about this one? Tomorrow night or tuesday am?

Edit: Can we have TautonMA start the next thread??? He was good luck in Jan

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I would agree, we do not want that one to be in the perfect screw spot for us...potent enough to mess with the storm behind it, yet not amped enough as to give us no snow. If it amps up enough, it would actually give us a nice snow event like the GFS and Euro at different times had shown in the past several days. I think in the end, we have enough of an amped up western ridge to make the 2nd storm the main player, but there's certainly a chance of wave interference in this whole thing.

Yeah I think for lower elevations Wednesday is not happening. So far most of us, even if it does amp up quite a bit, it's going to be a loss. I think we need Wednesday to be suppressed and Friday/Saturday to be very wound up, very explosive, and in the exact right spot. Not easy to do. lol

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I would agree, we do not want that one to be in the perfect screw spot for us...potent enough to mess with the storm behind it, yet not amped enough as to give us no snow. If it amps up enough, it would actually give us a nice snow event like the GFS and Euro at different times had shown in the past several days. I think in the end, we have enough of an amped up western ridge to make the 2nd storm the main player, but there's certainly a chance of wave interference in this whole thing.

I had rain/snow in the forecast yesterday for Friday night and Saturday. I said we are watching a possible nor'easter and it could be rain or snow... but it's hard to get a big snowstorm this time of year so rain is the more likely outcome. No more than 30 seconds later Kevin blew up my phone to complain. lol.

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Will do we have any past analogs for this storm? particularly any setups this year that we could look back to? Also, when do you think we'll start getting a good feel about this one? Tomorrow night or tuesday am?

Edit: Can we have TautonMA start the next thread??? He was good luck in Jan

There's a few similar storms...if you get the explosive version of storm #2, it might be akin to like 3/29/84.

A weaker version probably wouldn't produce more than advisory snows, maybe low end warning so there's a lot of early April storms that produced 3-6".

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Meanwhile....hit 49 degrees here with a dewpoint of -1! That's nuts

I think data scarcity matters less when we have many individual s/w then when we have one stronger one in a data poor area. There were many times this winter when seemingly critical components moved by hundreds of miles but the ultimate solution moved little. I think in the Nina type pattern there are so many ingredients in play it doesn't matter as much as it does usually.

So dry outside if you run really fast your balls will burst into flames.

Good thing you live right on the water!

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I would agree, we do not want that one to be in the perfect screw spot for us...potent enough to mess with the storm behind it, yet not amped enough as to give us no snow. If it amps up enough, it would actually give us a nice snow event like the GFS and Euro at different times had shown in the past several days. I think in the end, we have enough of an amped up western ridge to make the 2nd storm the main player, but there's certainly a chance of wave interference in this whole thing.

I'd rather Wed just cease to exist...even if it gets "amped", it will likely be an adv\low end warning event for the higher terrain and a rusty coat hanger for most.

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I'd rather Wed just cease to exist...even if it gets "amped", it will likely be an adv\low end warning event for the higher terrain and a rusty coat hanger for most.

lol yup. It won't be much of anything for you or me. Kevin will get a sloppy 2" and claim winter has returned with a vengeance.

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Yeah I think for lower elevations Wednesday is not happening. So far most of us, even if it does amp up quite a bit, it's going to be a loss. I think we need Wednesday to be suppressed and Friday/Saturday to be very wound up, very explosive, and in the exact right spot. Not easy to do. lol

18z GFS

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18z GFS is a beauty.

976 MB over the benchmark. 500mb signature looks similar to the 93 superstorm, if you had the 850 temp gradient it would likely be a 960mb storm.

Edit: Not that bad, 93 was on the 522 countour. But H5 still looks insane.

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