Typhoon Tip Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 It doesn't help that the main jet dynamics in question are passing through the N Pacific were it is about as data sparse as possible on the planet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 How is EURO for the south shore around 96-108? Looks like it might scrape us southern folk. any decent qpf onshore or nearby? It gives you 0.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 thanks. I'm definitely more interested in the first wave, especially here near the shore, before the airmass moderates. If the second one hits I think good chance it is rain. GFS ensembles definitely interesting for SNE with the first wave, so is EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Another reality however is that each solution has a different probability of verifying, and of those 95 that blow, about 90 of them are highly unlikely ... IMO at least. I'm speaking more to the balance btwn the two shortwaves, not whether we are going to get an amplification...IOW, high likely we get a good system, but whether it's snow is the big issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 It doesn't help that the main jet dynamics in question are passing through the N Pacific were it is about as data sparse as possible on the planet. Recon has been flying missions there starting yesterday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Recon has been flying missions there starting yesterday evening. We always hear of how these recon missions are going to be our savior w respect to garnering viable data over the n Pac, but time and time again any great epiphany experienced by the pantheon of guidance is enjoyed after those "crucial" missions...not during; IOW, they never seem mean a damn thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 We always hear of how these recon missions are going to be our savior w respect to garnering viable data over the n Pac, but time and time again any great epiphany experienced by the pantheon of guidance is enjoyed after those "crucial" missions...not during; IOW, they never seem mean a damn thing. I've always wondered how valuable those missions are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Looks game def. on via Euro..better than having it over Cincy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 We always hear of how these recon missions are going to be our savior w respect to garnering viable data over the n Pac, but time and time again any great epiphany experienced by the pantheon of guidance is enjoyed after those "crucial" missions; IOW, they never seem mean a damn thing. Okay fine, but if they don't mean a thing, then a feature being within a data sparse region shouldn't make any difference either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Just like w the Boxing Day storm.....the RECON data had had finally shed light on the fact that the storm would whiff, except for the fact that it became apparent that it would track too far west of us about 18 hrs before the vent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Just a guess, but I think more data ... and data that is specifically placed to sample the feature in question ... is probably better than no data at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I've always wondered how valuable those missions are. My honest take is that they don't hurt, but they don't provide a dense enough sampling to make a real significant difference, thus you have to wonder whether the trivial benefit is worth the cost of running them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Just a guess, but I think more data ... and data that is specifically placed to sample the feature in question ... is probably better than no data at all My honest take is that they don't hurt, but they don't provide a dense enough sampling to make a real significant difference, thus you have to wonder whether the trivial benefit is worth the cost of running them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Okay fine, but if they don't mean a thing, then a feature being within a data sparse region shouldn't make any difference either Again, read my last post; you have missed my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Just a guess but I think more data ... and data that is specifically placed to sample the feature in question ... is probably better than no data at all Well if the government wants to start slashing the budget for the NWS..instead of cutting programs and personal....they can start saving thousands of dollars by not having these flights. We have plenty of trans oceanic flight coming from Asia which can be aided by satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Well if the government wants to start slashing the budget for the NWS..instead of cutting programs and personal....they can start saving thousands of dollars by not having these flights. We have plenty of trans oceanic flight coming from Asia which can be aided by satellite. Totally this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Again, read my last post; you have missed my point. that's fair. Actually not entirely sure why I suddenly jumped up in defense of the recon missions lol My original point ... lol ... was that we can't blame data sparseness for the current model performance, because the features are getting sampled with the recon missions. It's simply a sensitive situation, and oh yeah, it's still past 120hrs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 that's fair. Actually not entirely sure why I suddenly jumped up in defense of the recon missions lol My original point ... lol ... was that we can't blame data sparseness for the current model performance, because the features are getting sampled with the recon missions. It's simply a sensitive situation, and oh yeah, it's still past 120hrs! Wait till Tip sees this. You're dead And there is some merit to data sparseness..which NCEP has admitted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 that's fair. Actually not entirely sure why I suddenly jumped up in defense of the recon missions lol My original point ... lol ... was that we can't blame data sparseness for the current model performance. It's simply a sensitive situation, and oh yeah, it's still past 120hrs! I think that data sparseness is most defintely a detriment to model performance in this particular time frame, but I just don't view recon missions as a very cost effective manner of combating the issue. The only way to entirely alleviate the problem is to extend the continent to the s of Alaska. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Wait till Tip sees this. You're dead And there is some merit to data sparseness..which NCEP has admitted I know, he's in bed with blaming data sparse regions for everything. And I used to think it had merit, but now I don't think it's always the ultimate limiting factor in forecasting ability as he makes it out be sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Man this is a really impressive airmass. Skies are completely clear, with a strong late March sun beating down, and we haven't hit freezing yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I know, he's in bed with blaming data sparse regions for everything. And I used to think it had merit, but now I don't think it's always the ultimate limiting factor in forecasting ability as he makes it out be sometimes. The unltimate factor is the extent of chaos present in the Earth's atmosphere, which deems it impossible to sample often enough and extensively enough; however the dearth of data available to us over the n pac is most assuredly a problem.....just not the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I think that data sparseness is most defintely a detriment to model performance in this particular time frame, but I just don't view recon missions as a very cost effective manner of combating the issue. The only way to can entirely alleviate the dilemma is to extend the continent to the s of Alaska. lol I think it also depends on the circumstances too. If a Cat 4 is moving just off the nrn Antilles, then I can understand if the atmosphere out ahead of it, is to be sampled better. However, we have a potential nor'easter moving up the coast. It's not necessarily a life threatening situation. Again, I'm just thinking of the costs. If the benefits are really there and worth it..then go for it. I admittedly don't know the stats..just going by memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I think it also depends on the circumstances too. If a Cat 4 is moving just off the nrn Antilles, then I can understand if the atmosphere out ahead of it, is to be sampled better. However, we have a potential nor'easter moving up the coast. It's not necessarily a life threatening situation. Again, I'm just thinking of the costs. If the benefits are really there and worth it..then go for it. I admittedly don't know the stats..just going by memory. Yes, in that case ANY benefit at all is worth it; however in the case of a potential condo crusher, we could do without the small benefit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Man this is a really impressive airmass. Skies are completely clear, with a strong late March sun beating down, and we haven't hit freezing yet Enjoy the cold it's the only cold you've got Put the frisbees , wristbands ,and TEVA's away Tuck the ponytail under the beret, put the hackeysack away Winter for another month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Man this is a really impressive airmass. Skies are completely clear, with a strong late March sun beating down, and we haven't hit freezing yet WOW 45 sunny feels tons warmer, just a perfect day and the sun is really strong. :sun: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 41.6\8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Enjoy the cold it's the only cold you've got Put the frisbees , wristbands ,and TEVA's away Tuck the ponytail under the beret, put the hackeysack away Winter for another month week I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I know, he's in bed with blaming data sparse regions for everything. And I used to think it had merit, but now I don't think it's always the ultimate limiting factor in forecasting ability as he makes it out be sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I've always wondered how valuable those missions are. The bumpy ride is probably fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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