CoastalWx Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 The Canadian shows a nice thermal gradient too. Look how tight the gradient is. Good cold, so long as it doesn't go through the Hudson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 The 12z ensembles to me look like they had a lot more spread. But that's been off and on the last few runs. 06z did have decent agreement and much tighter look near the BM. Yeah 12z does look a lot messier Still, I like seeing pretty good agreement in the amplitude of the H5 trough. Looks like mainly disagreeing on where the vortmax is within the trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 The other thing that shows up is the close spacing between the 0C 850 isotherm and the 10C 850 isotherm. It's a product of the time of year, but when utilized properly...could lead to a massive QPF bomb thanks to the isentropic lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 so is it consensus now that the 1'st wave is not gonna do squat wed afternoon or whenever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 The other thing that shows up is the close spacing between the 0C 850 isotherm and the 10C 850 isotherm. It's a product of the time of year, but when utilized properly...could lead to a massive QPF bomb thanks to the isentropic lift. It's ironic that in general, snowstorms are more difficult to get @ this time of season, but a higher percentage of the ones that we do get are biggies....at least that in my perception, anyway. We are more prone to cutt-offs because of the shorter wavelengths, but I had never thought of the point you just made RE the larger thermal gradients further increasing qpf potential, via isentropic lift. Not only do we have more frequent slower movers due to the shorter wavelengths, but we also have jucier systems due to the increased gradients and greater GOM involvement. The rising sun ange giveth and taketh away. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Something of note: neg NAO has been over-performing thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 It's ironic that in general, snowstorms are more difficult to get @ this time of season, but a higher percentage of the ones that we do get are biggies....at least that in my perception, anyway. We are more prone to cutt-offs because of the shorter wavelengths, but I had never thought of the point you just made RE the larger thermal gradients further increasing qpf potential, via isentropic lift. Not only do we have more frequent slower movers due to the shorter wavelengths, but we also have juciers systems due to the increased gradients and greater GOM involvement. That's why I said the late season events are the QPF biggies. You can keep it as simple as saying that warmer temperatures can hold more moisture. Large thermal gradients do exist, but remember you are entraining moisture from the subtropics which this time of year, have warmer SST's and therefore much more moisture as compared to January. That's the bottom line. 4/1/97 was a theta-e bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 It's ironic that in general, snowstorms are more difficult to get @ this time of season, but a higher percentage of the ones that we do get are biggies....at least that in my perception, anyway. We are more prone to cutt-offs because of the shorter wavelengths, but I had never thought of the point you just made RE the larger thermal gradients further increasing qpf potential, via isentropic lift. Not only do we have more frequent slower movers due to the shorter wavelengths, but we also have jucier systems due to the increased gradients and greater GOM involvement. The rising sun ange giveth and taketh away. lol thermal gradient thumpers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 That's why I said the late season events are the QPF biggies. You can keep it as simple as saying that warmer temperatures can hold more moisture. Large thermal gradients do exist, but remember you are entraining moisture from the subtropics which this time of year, have warmer SST's and therefore much more moisture as compared to January. That's the bottom line. 4/1/97 was a theta-e bomb. Higher stakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Something of note: neg NAO has been over-performing thus far This is a definite reverse Archambault event. We just hope it happens to be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I really do like the antecedent airmass before this storm as is modeled right now. There should be some pretty solid ML cold in place. You can even see it on those amped up GFS ensemble solutions...they show a massive front end thump even on the westward track. Hopefully that continues to get better looking as we get closer. It will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Higher stakes. Definitely, but even earlier in the season like In February and more especially March, offers storms that probably have a little more moisture involved as compared to the same situation in mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Definitely, but even earlier in the season like In February and more especially March, offers storms that probably have a little more moisture involved as compared to the same situation in mid January. The first February storm from last year had one of the greatest moisture streams I've ever seen....that thing was tapping the ITCZ in the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 The 48 hour 12z ECMWF paints out a Jovian intense wind max approaching British Columbia coast, so much so that the two leading S/W are all but damped out as the pass through the Rockies - these latter two were the original leaders for mid week that are losing the battle. Anyway, should that wind max dump E of a bulging western N/A PNA ridge than there will be hell to pay - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Definitely, but even earlier in the season like In February and more especially March, offers storms that probably have a little more moisture involved as compared to the same situation in mid January. I know this point is somewhat compromised by the Jan that we just had, but that month is a bit of a "black hole" as far as KUs go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Different look on the Euro lol...trying to actually have the 2nd wave catch up to the first wave and produce the system about 24h earlier. But it never quite catches up enough to get the storm all the way up the coast and we get grazed at 102 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 The first February storm from last year had one of the greatest moisture streams I've ever seen....that thing was tapping the ITCZ in the Pacific. Yeah that was sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 This is a definite reverse Archambault event. We just hope it happens to be snow. I'd say the NAO bias at face value would support more suppression. And then I'd say that based on the current intensity of the disturbance south of the Aleutians and general model support, we're more likely to see a deep coherent trough develop than see it squashed. Put the two together and we have a major late season snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Different look on the Euro lol...trying to actually have the 2nd wave catch up to the first wave and produce the system about 24h earlier. But it never quite catches up enough to get the storm all the way up the coast and we get grazed at 102 hours. The second wave forms at hr 108 but I don't think it will be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 EURO is gonna be east I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 The second wave forms at hr 108 but I don't think it will be enough. Yeah its much weaker...its def in response to the whole system catching up to that first wave and trying to concentrate the baroclinic zone on that. Its an oddball looking solution and probably will change drastically next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Yeah its much weaker...its def in response to the whole system catching up to that first wave and trying to concentrate the baroclinic zone on that. Its an oddball looking solution and probably will change drastically next run. It's a delicate balance because if that first wave is weak or non-existent...that second low could ride up into the Hudson Valley. However, like you said, we definitely don't want the first wave to be too strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 lol oh hey look everyone, it's another possible solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Yep, D6 ... right about on schedule for model black out... The collective posters will spend the next 24 hours throwing frustration flame until such time some 3 or 4 cycles from now that it all comes back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Anyways, I'm sure the EC ensembles will be different, lol. I'm out for the afternoon, Scooter if you could let me know how ensembles look, greatly appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 lol oh hey look everyone, it's another possible solution Reality is that of the 100 possible soloutions, about 95 of them blow. Delicate balance.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Nice view of the two short waves in question. #1 is just off the coast of Oregon, and #2 is south of the Aleutians Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Reality is that of the 100 possible soloutions, about 95 of them blow. Delicate balance.... Another reality however is that each solution has a different probability of verifying, and of those 95 that blow, about 90 of them are highly unlikely ... IMO at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 How is EURO for the south shore around 96-108? Looks like it might scrape us southern folk. any decent qpf onshore or nearby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Anyways, I'm sure the EC ensembles will be different, lol. I'm out for the afternoon, Scooter if you could let me know how ensembles look, greatly appreciated. Yeah no prob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.