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Tulip Trouncer Threat - End of March/ Early April


Baroclinic Zone

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I really do like the antecedent airmass before this storm as is modeled right now. There should be some pretty solid ML cold in place. You can even see it on those amped up GFS ensemble solutions...they show a massive front end thump even on the westward track. Hopefully that continues to get better looking as we get closer.

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Huge spread on the 12z GFS ensembles...which is no surprise given the time range and how much trouble it will probably have handling this type of pattern

I can't get means and spreads yet for 12z, but looking at the 06z, there actually appears to be pretty decent agreement for a track near the benchmark. The mslp spread looks like it's due mainly to timing and intensity, and not as much track.

Also notable, there's good agreement in the amplitude of the 500mb trough, but again, just phase differences.

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I really do like the antecedent airmass before this storm as is modeled right now. There should be some pretty solid ML cold in place. You can even see it on those amped up GFS ensemble solutions...they show a massive front end thump even on the westward track. Hopefully that continues to get better looking as we get closer.

This is what gives me hope for my area; it's all about the mid levels here.....obviously elevations are favored, but this could be a case where it isn't as crucial as it normally would be @ this time of year.

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I can't get means and spreads yet for 12z, but looking at the 06z, there actually appears to be pretty decent agreement for a track near the benchmark. The mslp spread looks like it's due mainly to timing and intensity, and not as much track.

Also notable, there's good agreement in the amplitude of the 500mb trough, but again, just phase differences.

The 12z ensembles to me look like they had a lot more spread. But that's been off and on the last few runs. 06z did have decent agreement and much tighter look near the BM.

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Definitely so much nicer than some epic spring events of the past where you needed perfecto dynamics to even get snow down to the low levels.....So everything doesn't have to be perfect here for a lot people to get a decent snowfall.

I really do like the antecedent airmass before this storm as is modeled right now. There should be some pretty solid ML cold in place. You can even see it on those amped up GFS ensemble solutions...they show a massive front end thump even on the westward track. Hopefully that continues to get better looking as we get closer.

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