Tulip Trouncer Threat - End of March/ Early April

[Logan11]

I don't think the pattern favors an inland runner but it could be a coastal hugger I guess.....

I don't care how far out we are...having the GFS ens very amped is not good.......not much margin for error at this time of year.

You were the one ready to jump in front of a mack track after the Thursday fail.

[ORH_wxman]

Interior SNE gets nuked with a snow bomb.

[40/70 Benchmark]

System is digging like a backhoe to the ENE....it has a kicker behind it.

Didn't see that coming....looks like a rain to snow event with elevations favored.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Interior SNE gets nuked with a snow bomb.

All I need is an elevation event.

[weatherwiz]

I don't care how far out we are...having the GFS ens very amped is not good.......not much margin for error at this time of year.

You were the one ready to jump in front of a mack track after the Thursday fail.

Well you're right in a sense but if we can get some sort of anomalous pattern, which this seems to be the models aren't going to do to well. I, personally, would like to see something like the models is showing now with something well offshore, not like the past system. You probably stand a much bettter chance at somethintg than I do anyway.

Yeah, I was pretty pissed off about the past storm and you know why...you live and learn I guess.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well you're right in a sense but if we can get some sort of anomalous pattern, which this seems to be the models aren't going to do to well. I, personally, would like to see something like the models is showing now with something well offshore, not like the past system. You probably stand a much bettter chance at somethintg than I do anyway.

Yeah, I was pretty pissed off about the past storm and you know why...you live and learn I guess.

I'm tired and cranky, but it really did look like this was gonna cut over us; it really jetted ene.

If this is an elevation bomb, then I'll go to Will's if he'll let me.

[weatherwiz]

I'm tired and cranky, but it really did look like this was gonna cut over us; it really jetted ene.

If this is an elevation bomb, then I'll go to Will's if he'll let me.

don't sweat it dude, this time of year it takes something really special, especially for someone in my location. I still hope though, I really still hope (weenie wise) that I can get another solid warning criteria event.

I'd go to Will's as well if he'd let me. I just want to see heavy, heavy snow one more time.

[ORH_wxman]

At any rate, pretty interesting run. 6 days out and there's plenty of risk of rain so we'll just have to hope it still looks decent down the road.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like the low goes over cc, as opposed to just outside of the BM on the 12z run.

I gotta crash.....5 hrs of sleep for 3 consecutive nights is gettn to me.

[Logan11]

I thought the 0Z op. GFS run (albeit still disorganized) moved a lot toward the 12z Euro idea....

[Logan11]

Well you're over 30 now. Catching up with you....

Looks like the low goes over cc, as opposed to just outside of the BM on the 12z run.

I gotta crash.....5 hrs of sleep for 3 consecutive nights is gettn to me.

[nzucker]

Euro is a huge hit for South Central PA with a 980s low tucked into NJ coast....the higher elevations near Harrisburg would be the place to go for this storm verbatim.

NYC suburbs also get some snow but looks to mix a lot...

[Logan11]

Hey maybe a blue snow bomb in Montgomery County, MD (nnw of DC) where I'll be staying at that rate. Will it come to me?

If I didn't have long stranding plans to visit my cousins I'd rush home for it, but they have made lots of plans.....

Euro is a huge hit for South Central PA with a 980s low tucked into NJ coast....the higher elevations near Harrisburg would be the place to go for this storm verbatim.

NYC suburbs also get some snow but looks to mix a lot...

[nzucker]

Hey maybe a blue snow bomb in Montgomery County, MD (nnw of DC) where I'll be staying at that rate. Will it come to me?

I am interviewing for a fellowship in Chicago that day, driving there so could be back by the late-night hours to see the storm. Was planning on hanging out with friends but would drive back for the Nor'easter if it were a 980s bomb. The options would be: find a motel where the storm is hitting and sit it out, drive all the way back to NYC (long and probably not cold enough here), drive to my house in the Poconos (not quite as long and colder there)....

Yeah the higher elevations of N MD probably see some snow on the 0z ECM. South-Central PA gets hammered.

[Logan11]

That's a LONG drive to Chicago. I did it in one day back in December 2009. Of course I took I-90 all the way... Monotonous as hell from OH onwards. Coming home I cut across Ontario and it was better, but not applicable for you.

I am interviewing for a fellowship in Chicago that day, driving there so could be back by the late-night hours to see the storm. Was planning on hanging out with friends but would drive back for the Nor'easter if it were a 980s bomb. The options would be: find a motel where the storm is hitting and sit it out, drive all the way back to NYC (long and probably not cold enough here), drive to my house in the Poconos (not quite as long and colder there)....

Yeah the higher elevations of N MD probably see some snow on the 0z ECM. South-Central PA gets hammered.

[Logan11]

That sounded like a Poconos mauler to me. Think March 30,31, 1990....tho u were either nonexistent or in the cradle then.

I am interviewing for a fellowship in Chicago that day, driving there so could be back by the late-night hours to see the storm. Was planning on hanging out with friends but would drive back for the Nor'easter if it were a 980s bomb. The options would be: find a motel where the storm is hitting and sit it out, drive all the way back to NYC (long and probably not cold enough here), drive to my house in the Poconos (not quite as long and colder there)....

Yeah the higher elevations of N MD probably see some snow on the 0z ECM. South-Central PA gets hammered.

[nzucker]

That's a LONG drive to Chicago. I did it in one day back in December 2009. Of course I took I-90 all the way... Monotonous as hell from OH onwards. Coming home I cut across Ontario and it was better, but not applicable for you.

It's a little faster on I-80 from NYC to Chicago, but still takes close to 12 hours depending on how fast you drive and how much you stop. I believe it's close to 800 miles. The scenery is gorgeous in PA and then it becomes monotonous.

I decided to drive since I need to be in the suburbs for the interview, and am staying at a cousin's house the night before, too much of a pain to fly and then take trains all over the place. This also gives me the option to come home early, or drive somewhere else in the Midwest, if there is a late-season bomb.

I did this drive last August coming home from MT, stayed with a friend for 2 days in Chicago and then drove back to NYC from his apartment. It was at an unfortunate time: there was a ton of construction on I-80, and it took me like 13 hours to get home with minimal stops. Brutal. I'm accustomed to driving long distances however since I did the road trip to Montana and back last summer, doesn't really bother me, in fact I like driving.

[nzucker]

That sounded like a Poconos mauler to me. Think March 30,31, 1990....tho u were either nonexistent or in the cradle then.

What happened in March 1990? Do you think my house in NE PA got a lot of snow? I was only two years old, obviously don't remember...

The Poconos are a great place for late-season cut-offs. Two storms that really destroyed them were February 1958 and the March 19, 1958 storm. They did insanely well in the 57-58 winter. I think Stroudsburg had like 50" in one of those storms...Hawley got like 40" in the March 1958 event...My house is about 30 miles north of there near the NY State border. I've seen some great storms there including PDII, the October 14-16, 2009 event, and a few others I don't remember the dates of.

[Logan11]

Yeah I like driving also.... Time constraints forcing me to fly down to FL Monday, but got a deal on a one way rental home... In 2008 I drove from FL to near Roswell NM and then back east to DFW..then flew home...my biggest road trip I guess. Last summer I drove from Munich over the Austrian Alps (in a ridiculous driving rainstorm) to Hungary/Slovenia area near Austrian SE border. That was a bit challenging, but fun. GPSes are nice and they talk in English....

It's a little faster on I-80 from NYC to Chicago, but still takes close to 12 hours depending on how fast you drive and how much you stop. I believe it's close to 800 miles. The scenery is gorgeous in PA and then it becomes monotonous.

I decided to drive since I need to be in the suburbs for the interview, and am staying at a cousin's house the night before, too much of a pain to fly and then take trains all over the place. This also gives me the option to come home early, or drive somewhere else in the Midwest, if there is a late-season bomb.

I did this drive last August coming home from MT, stayed with a friend for 2 days in Chicago and then drove back to NYC from his apartment. It was at an unfortunate time: there was a ton of construction on I-80, and it took me like 13 hours to get home with minimal stops. Brutal. I'm accustomed to driving long distances however since I did the road trip to Montana and back last summer, doesn't really bother me, in fact I like driving.

[Logan11]

I'm not certain about the Poconos, but I know Scranton got dumped on bad in that late season coastal. The was the time that Gloria Estefan (and Miami Sound Machine) ..maybe you never heard of them now..... flipped their tour bus around AVP and she was seriously injured. ALB I think did pretty good, but the Catskills west it was bad. HV below ALB was more slop etc....

What happened in March 1990? Do you think my house in NE PA got a lot of snow? I was only two years old, obviously don't remember...

The Poconos are a great place for late-season cut-offs. Two storms that really destroyed them were February 1958 and the March 19, 1958 storm. They did insanely well in the 57-58 winter. I think Stroudsburg had like 50" in one of those storms...Hawley got like 40" in the March 1958 event...My house is about 30 miles north of there near the NY State border. I've seen some great storms there including PDII, the October 14-16, 2009 event, and a few others I don't remember the dates of.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I thought the 0Z op. GFS run (albeit still disorganized) moved a lot toward the 12z Euro idea....

Three to four more days and it's crunch time.

When is your trip?

[nzucker]

I'm not certain about the Poconos, but I know Scranton got dumped on bad in that late season coastal. The was the time that Gloria Estefan (and Miami Sound Machine) ..maybe you never heard of them now..... flipped their tour bus around AVP and she was seriously injured. ALB I think did pretty good, but the Catskills west it was bad. HV below ALB was more slop etc....

I love Gloria Estefan...my parents introduced me to Miami Sound Machine when I was younger, great music. They always used to play it in the car.

I'm sure my house did well as it's only like 40 miles from Scranton...89-90 was such a crap winter except for the cold Nov/Dec that it's amazing to believe it came back in the late-season. I always hear people talking about 88-89 and 89-90 as two of the worst winters in history for SNE and NYC metro.

[Logan11]

Leave 8 AM Monday on southwest for TPA... Back to DC area via car by Fri night... Come home either late Sun eve or Monday morning.

HAH I thought I was doing this late enough so as not to miss any winter storm threats...

Three to four more days and it's crunch time.

When is your trip?

[nzucker]

Leave 8 AM Monday on southwest for TPA... Back to DC area via car by Fri night... Come home either late Sun eve or Monday morning.

You might want to race home Sunday afternoon, LOL.

[Logan11]

88-89 had almost no redeeming features....

89-90 had a great cold Dec. and decent snow up here. I even recall being at a mall in Paramus just before New Years and I'm listening to some NYC FM station (maybe 95 PLJ..at the time called "Power 95") playing the top 100 of the 80's. and it is so cold and frozen even there...like the arctic after weeks of it.

Then January turned mild, but Upstate we pulled some decent wet snow events amidst the mild pattern.

Edit: Musn't forget the Thanksgiving snowfall in NYC in 1989.......or the Coldenham (Orange County) tornado in Nov.....

A sub par winter, but not the worst ever.

In Saugerties I had a sickening 22 inches of snow in 88-89. In 89-90 it was like 52 inches.

I love Gloria Estefan...my parents introduced me to Miami Sound Machine when I was younger, great music. They always used to play it in the car.

I'm sure my house did well as it's only like 40 miles from Scranton...89-90 was such a crap winter except for the cold Nov/Dec that it's amazing to believe it came back in the late-season. I always hear people talking about 88-89 and 89-90 as two of the worst winters in history for SNE and NYC metro.

[nzucker]

88-89 had almost no redeeming features....

89-90 had a great cold Dec. and decent snow up here. I even recall being at a mall in Paramus just before New Years and I'm listening to some NYC FM station (maybe 95 PLJ..at the time called "Power 95") playing the top 100 of the 80's. and it is so cold and frozen even there...like the arctic after weeks of it.

Then January turned mild, but Upstate we pulled some decent wet snow events amidst the mild pattern.

A sub par winter, but not the worst ever.

If you had to make a list, what were your top three best winters, and top three worst winters?

For NYC metro, I'd go with..

Best: 10-11, 95-96, 09-10

Worst: 01-02, 97-98, 98-99

[Logan11]

I was below ALB until 2005 so that is my reference point then....

Best: 70-71, 81-82, 95-96 ...93-94 close...

Worst: 88-89, 79-80, 90-91

Last year was great because of one storm...one storm winters don't count.

This year would have been in the top three for Saugerties, but think of how much this area may have got in 70-71 etc...so gotta be subjective.

If you had to make a list, what were your top three best winters, and top three worst winters?

For NYC metro, I'd go with..

Best: 10-11, 95-96, 09-10

Worst: 01-02, 97-98, 98-99

[Logan11]

Of course if we get a major snowstorm on April 1st ...this winter probably bumps 95-96 out of the top three.

I was below ALB until 2005 so that is my reference point then....

Best: 70-71, 81-82, 95-96 ...93-94 close...

Worst: 88-89, 79-80, 90-91

Last year was great because of one storm...one storm winters don't count.

This year would have been in the top three for Saugerties, but think of how much this area may have got in 70-71 etc...so gotta be subjective.

[nzucker]

I was below ALB until 2005 so that is my reference point then....

Best: 70-71, 81-82, 95-96 ...93-94 close...

Worst: 88-89, 79-80, 90-91

Last year was great because of one storm...one storm winters don't count.

This year would have been in the top three for Saugerties, but think of how much this area may have got in 70-71 etc...so gotta be subjective.

70-71 was a great winter for Upstate NY and Vermont; December-March was consistently below average, and it was BTV's snowiest winter with 145.4"...I think it was basically a colder version of 07-08 with more blocking and colder anomalies further south, but still a ton of SW flow events that jackpotted the North Country while the coast got very little. It was largely remembered as a cold and dry winter down here.

What were the big storms in 81-82 besides 4/6/82? Was that a cold winter?

88-89 just sucked...BOS had like 17" and NYC like 9", terrible winter. December 88 had some reasonable cold but then it got milder towards the end of the season. 79-80 had some good events in the Mid-Atlantic but was very dry further north, almost a repeat of 78-79 but warmer and worse for anyone living north of DC. 78-79 wasn't very good for our areas either. Those winters like 89-90, 90-91, and 91-92 just had nothing to recommend them, what a waste. It's amazing how things have picked back up since 02-03 since we were in a real crappy streak before then.

[Logan11]

81-82 had really consistent snow and cold Upstate. Over 90 inches in Saugerties. I was 16 and we spent most of our time on a local pond skating and playing hockey..with the boom box playing nasty early 80's junk. LOL Mid Dec. we had a big one ..like 18" ..mainly it was very consistent.

In January we dropped to -26F in Saugerties. I recall a night an apple tree blew over in the wind onto the horse fence and it was -12F with a heavy wind.

That lousy horse is still alive out back here at age 36 now! His teeth are shot and I have to give him like ground up hay etc...but otherwise pretty spry.

70-71 I have only vague memories, but lots of snow. My cousin was visiting from Germany and he never saw such snow before.

70-71 was a great winter for Upstate NY and Vermont; December-March was consistently below average, and it was BTV's snowiest winter with 145.4"...I think it was basically a colder version of 07-08 with more blocking and colder anomalies further south, but still a ton of SW flow events that jackpotted the North Country while the coast got very little. It was largely remembered as a cold and dry winter down here.

What were the big storms in 81-82 besides 4/6/82? Was that a cold winter?

88-89 just sucked...BOS had like 17" and NYC like 9", terrible winter. December 88 had some reasonable cold but then it got milder towards the end of the season. 79-80 had some good events in the Mid-Atlantic but was very dry further north, almost a repeat of 78-79 but warmer and worse for anyone living north of DC. 78-79 wasn't very good for our areas either. Those winters like 89-90, 90-91, and 91-92 just had nothing to recommend them, what a waste. It's amazing how things have picked back up since 02-03 since we were in a real crappy streak before then.