OSUmetstud Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 My take on that is that the GFS' last couple of runs are really dropping the ball on the western N/A PNA related ridge flex, and that doesn't allow the northern stream to dig enough to get involved with the southern stream - like the UKIE especially having that two stream full phased scenario. Even something partial and less extreme would be fine but the GFS just does this from time to time, where it sees a naughty deal and suddenly makes it rate G for 3 days. The upshot is that it has to come back if the storm is going to happen. Frankly, I don't remember the last time the GFS scored a middle range coup over every operational run. Hell, even the hugely longitudinal biased "GONAPS" model has a buckle bomb on the 12z run. All that, and these recent GFS runs aren't a good fit at all for the larger mass field modality. The GFS ensembles looks closer to the ECMWF ensembles. GFS ensembles are significantly better than the Op at this range and show a 995mb low over the Benchmark at 168 hours....The Euro ensembles show a 999mb low over Montauk, NY at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Will or tip.. I know April 6+ snows are rare, but are we overdue for one for sne? How often did they occur in the 80s and 90s? I know we didn't have one In the 00s, so we must be right? You didn't get anything in April 03? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 You didn't get anything in April 03? It was a light to moderate snow for most of the area, like a 3-5" type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 How did everyone do in the Tax Day storm in 2007? IIRC I came away with around 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 How did everyone do in the Tax Day storm in 2007? IIRC I came away with around 5" 5" at Midd... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 How did everyone do in the Tax Day storm in 2007? IIRC I came away with around 5" About half an inch to an inch on the front end and then some heavier snow showers after it occluded that would whiten things at times when they got heavy. I remember about 4-5 days out that one looked like a monster snowstorm, but it obviously ended up much further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 You didn't get anything in April 03? Maybe I should of said 8 or 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Still kinda early, but the GFS is less amplified and looks worse at 72 hour EDIT: It actually looks like the southern stream and northern stream are more phased around hour 96...EDIT: This is Classic GFS at hour 138... really confused and forming 3 different lows around the southeast.. It looks remarkably better at 500 tho WOW at 168-174!!! that shows the potential for this storm... complete phase... GFS slow and SE is prefect right now Here's a pic from the 18z GFS around day 7-8 Wasn't there another storm this year that had this same look with a bowling ball deep in the gulf and we all though it would phase with the northern stream but never did????? I think it was before the Jan storms but I can't remember... I know a previous storm had this look though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 GFS ens mean is very amped up...it tracks the low up over Philly and then into E MA from 156h to 168h. That would change most of NE over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 GFS ens mean is very amped up...it tracks the low up over Philly and then into E MA from 156h to 168h. That would change most of NE over to rain. What a dichotomy that would make for; one of the worst endings to one of the best winters of all time. That ends up a cold rainer and I may rank this ahead of 2006 for miserable endings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 What a dichotomy that would make for; one of the worst endings to one of the best winters of all time. That ends up a cold rainer and I may rank this ahead of 2006 for miserable endings. It definitely would be a terrible finish. But given how late we are, its probably more favored than snow right now. If it was March 15th instead of April 1st when this popped up, then the story would be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 GFS ens mean is very amped up...it tracks the low up over Philly and then into E MA from 156h to 168h. That would change most of NE over to rain. Maybe thunderstorms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Sounds pretty good to me. GFS ens mean is very amped up...it tracks the low up over Philly and then into E MA from 156h to 168h. That would change most of NE over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Canadian looks a bit offshore. Euro is already running so I'll probably stay up and look, but it probably doesn't matter too much with the large wobbles we are seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Maybe thunderstorms? Oh god. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Oh god. What> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 It definitely would be a terrible finish. But given how late we are, its probably more favored than snow right now. If it was March 15th instead of April 1st when this popped up, then the story would be different. This is why I always maintained that I would have rathered a finish like last year; fu** the cold pattern at this point because it isn't worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Come here for the thundersnow. ...I'll experience it vicariously from DC at that point I guess.... What> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I really want more snow...and lots of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Low 14 High 30 here on Saturday.... What's that normal for about February 5th around here? LOL The top few inches of the ground in open snow free areas had gotten muddy...no more. Frozen solid again. That was nice because the horse paddock area was getting ugly. My sister has been in FL and I have to feed those four beasts, the two dogs and two guinea pigs twice a day. This is why I always maintained that I would have rathered a finish like last year; fu** the cold pattern at this point because it isn't worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Logan11 will probably get another 30" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Come here for the thundersnow. ...I'll experience it vicariously from DC at that point I guess.... i had t'snow one day this winter when I had like 22.5'' of snow on that day there was that big blizzard and we had lots of snow...24'' at BDL there was thundersnow during that storm and it was awesome. SAw a flash of lightning and then a few more and then big booms from thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Low 14 High 30 here on Saturday.... What's that normal for about February 5th around here? LOL Disgusting and utterly useless....nothing I hate more than highs in the upper 30's and wind, amid September irradiance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I thk the trough is neg too early on the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 If I had to guess (always dangerous), I'd say it comes over my head this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Vomit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Vomit. Relax dude, were like 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I won't be here anyway so I don't have a personal investment ...except to push up the season snow totals I guess. Maybe if it's big there would still be quite a bit left late on Sunday or Monday when I get back here. Vomit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Relax dude, were like 6 days out. I don't care how far out we are...having the GFS ens very amped is not good.......not much margin for error at this time of year. You were the one ready to jump in front of a mack track after the Thursday fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 System is digging like a backhoe to the ENE....it has a kicker behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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