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Tulip Trouncer Threat - End of March/ Early April


Baroclinic Zone

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No mowing here before May 1st.... even if it has some spurts in parts of the lawn, I refuse to do it until it needs a general cutting.

So I cut every 2 weeks (in an emergency 10 days) through mid July and then usually every three weeks until about very early October and done....

I don't care if I get uneven stunted grown in October...not worth it.

That for Kevin to help him lessen his mowing duties. ;)

That's not a huge difference though really...most years recently it's been early April here. But it'll be 2+ weeks/mid April and that's only if we start seeing warmth.

Big difference though between greening up and growing.

Pointing out that it does green up around here a lot earlire than many thing but then again, many of you still have a blanket of white.

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Yup, that which shall not be named. I had just moved back to Cambridge that year.

Will, how much qpf was associated with the 97 storm?

Between 3 and 5 inches of qpf. I will say that I know that even back then, the modeled qpf was probably 30% of that.

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hahah no you're not

LOL, well like I told others...you just had that feeling by late day..that feeling of nobody knowing what the hell was happening, but you knew something big was about to drop. It's nostalgic..especially being a 17yr old weenie and realizing things are busting for the better. By about 10pm that night, I realized this was going to be the biggest storm I had ever seen.

Storms like Jan '05 were amazing in itself, but 4/1/97 was special.

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That's not a huge difference though really...most years recently it's been early April here. But it'll be 2+ weeks/mid April and that's only if we start seeing warmth.

Big difference though between greening up and growing.

Pointing out that it does green up around here a lot earlire than many thing but then again, many of you still have a blanket of white.

Peepers still aren't out around my parents house...usually are by now.

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Like I said in ENY it was all about precipitation intensity... West side of he Hudson where I lived got 8 inches of extreme slop...34-35F snow. East of the river where it was heavier and could sustain the cold...2 feet of wet snow fell even at a few hundred feet.

Above 1800 feet in the Catskills it was a beautiful fairly dry snow ...even drifting and plenty of 30"+ amounts.

Between 3 and 5 inches of qpf. I will say that I know that even back then, the modeled qpf was probably 30% of that.

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LOL, well like I told others...you just had that feeling by late day..that feeling of nobody knowing what the hell was happening, but you knew something big was about to drop. It's nostalgic..especially being a 17yr old weenie and realizing things are busting for the better. By about 10pm that night, I realized this was going to be the biggest storm I had ever seen.

Storms like Jan '05 were amazing in itself, but 4/1/97 was special.

I bet Will feels exactly the same way for Dec '92.

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Peepers still aren't out around my parents house...usually are by now.

They're all asleep here again too. Way too cold. There was actually a skim coat of ice until noon today.

I bet Will feels exactly the same way for Dec '92.

I was coming back from Aruba the day prior. I remember there was all sorts of talk at the airport in Aruba about the storm and getting a few feet. The first forecast I saw that night was Burbank caling for a few feet. I think this was technically about 18 hours pre-start...I thought it was pretty well forecast?

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And also Gene would have been there and Marcus and probably Randy (tho they didn't get much). Also Evan Bookbinder, Pete (from PSU who was on Eastern a year or two ago still), Tara, plus Mitch and Rob from LI etc...who have vanished....

Oh of course JConsor in Roslyn....

Yup, you, me, messenger, Jerry were all tracking that one. Too bad Scooter and Will weren't around for it back then.

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Yeah this is common in spring storms; you just get a bubble of cold 850s under the closed low's dynamics, and then as it bombs out that bubble rejoins the rest of the 0C line. Similar in 4/16/2007 when we had a bubble of sub-freezing 850s over VT and Upstate NY, picked up about 5" of snow at 350' on the Middlebury campus, but changed over when the daylight arrived.

Most impressive Vermont late-season storm on record was probably last year... the biggest storm of the season for a lot of folks up here occurred 48 hours before May 1st. Its hard to beat this for a late season storm... April 28-29, 2010... widespread power outages, leafed out trees can't compete with 18-24" of cement.

This is another situation where you can claim that sun angle means squat under the right circumstances.

7 weeks from the summer solstice...this is with a mid-August sun angle:

IMG_0858_edited-1.jpg

IMG_0853_edited-1.jpg

IMG_0850_edited-1.jpg

It melted quickly, but it stuck around long enough to give us the rare snow-cover on May 1st!

Not too often you get to record 3" depth on May 1st.

IMG_0994_edited-1.jpg

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Yeah Middlebury got 3.5" on 4/27/10...weird because it was a record warm spring with trees already partially leafed out on campus at 300' elevation. Only second time I've seen snow on green, other was May 2002 in the Poconos. 850s were like -7C for that storm and it accumulated even during the mid-day on campus; however, the snowfall was a bit eerie because the high sun angle made everything unusually bright during a wintry event. I drove up to the Greens for that storm and they had 2' on the ground at App Gap...

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I was rushing to get my work done, etc before my Europe trip at that point last year ...and must have not been paying attention to that storm. I don't recall anything here west of the CD.

I do recall a freak inch of snow that we got early on Saturday morning May 8th...

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Yeah Middlebury got 3.5" on 4/27/10...weird because it was a record warm spring with trees already partially leafed out on campus at 300' elevation. Only second time I've seen snow on green, other was May 2002 in the Poconos. 850s were like -7C for that storm and it accumulated even during the mid-day on campus; however, the snowfall was a bit eerie because the high sun angle made everything unusually bright during a wintry event. I drove up to the Greens for that storm and they had 2' on the ground at App Gap...

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It still tries to get a piece of the wave to climb up the coast in response to the northern stream energy diving in, but its certainly nothing like the Euro and def not the Ukie. Verbatim it looks like mostly cold rain too because of the WAA out ahead of the floundering southern stream wave.

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It still tries to get a piece of the wave to climb up the coast in response to the northern stream energy diving in, but its certainly nothing like the Euro and def not the Ukie. Verbatim it looks like mostly cold rain too because of the WAA out ahead of the floundering southern stream wave.

But it does have a solid overrunning event on April 7th, haha.

gfs_pcp_288m.gif

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When I was in Prague last June the beer of record there is Pilsner Urquel ...made in Pilsen, Bohemia.... I see it sold over here occasionally.

42

sunny

By the way, this years sa noble pils is just off the charts, making a chili right now and dumped two in there I usually use Guiness, but this beer maybe one of my all time faves.

nobile pils FTW

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The difference between the 18z GFS and the 12z ECMWF op is pretty crazy.

My take on that is that the GFS' last couple of runs are really dropping the ball on the western N/A PNA related ridge flex, and that doesn't allow the northern stream to dig enough to get involved with the southern stream - like the UKIE especially having that two stream full phased scenario. Even something partial and less extreme would be fine but the GFS just does this from time to time, where it sees a naughty deal and suddenly makes it rate G for 3 days.

The upshot is that it has to come back if the storm is going to happen. Frankly, I don't remember the last time the GFS scored a middle range coup over every operational run. Hell, even the hugely longitudinal biased "GONAPS" model has a buckle bomb on the 12z run. All that, and these recent GFS runs aren't a good fit at all for the larger mass field modality.

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