Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Tulip Trouncer Threat - End of March/ Early April


Baroclinic Zone

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 957
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Hey I'm for a 970mb low off LI giving us heavy snow in April. Sure it's model mayhem but better than discussing whether it's going to be 59F or 64F tomorrow..

The garden CAN wait.

If it happens, it happens. Kev locked in 1-2 feet, the bus has been taken out of the shed, but its a long long ways away, mon-wed look beautiful, get out and enjoy it tubes! When are we hitting the sheeba and drinking some brews?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If it happens, it happens. Kev locked in 1-2 feet, the bus has been taken out of the shed, but its a long long ways away, mon-wed look beautiful, get out and enjoy it tubes! When are we hitting the sheeba and drinking some brews?

Hopefully it's not the Fung-Wah bus that either crashes and catches on fire almost monthly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

April '97 closed off and just bombed offshore and was captured for a time I think. I didn't recall that as a gulf low...but not sure. Also April 1997 frankly had very marginal cold air to work with. That was a dynamically driven heavy wet snow. I think we are gonna have the potential to tap more cold. In places where the intensity wasn't as great in 1997 - it was slop and going back and forth from rain to snow (such as ENY). That was a true Spring event....

This is going to a replica of April 97..Just unreal

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If it happens, it happens. Kev locked in 1-2 feet, the bus has been taken out of the shed, but its a long long ways away, mon-wed look beautiful, get out and enjoy it tubes! When are we hitting the sheeba and drinking some brews?

I would love to get together and drink some brews, finally pay off the bet. This coming week is out since I have to teach all week and then am going to Chicago on Friday to interview for a fellowship, will be out there for the weekend. Sorry but I've been very busy lately with two part-time jobs, fellowship interviews, some family health problems, etc. How about the weekend of April 9th, any chance you could swing that? Where would you like to do this, Westchester or CT? I hear you have a nice set-up, Joe, but don't want to invite myself.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

April '97 closed off and just bombed offshore and was captured for a time I think. I didn't recall that as a gulf low...but not sure. Also April 1997 frankly had very marginal cold air to work with. That was a dynamically driven heavy wet snow. I think we are gonna have the potential to tap more cold. In places where the intensity wasn't as great in 1997 - it was slop and going back and forth from rain to snow (such as ENY). That was a true Spring event....

I remember getting about 6" here in Westchester from 4/1/97...started as heavy rain and then the raindrops just got bigger and gloppier until they turned to snowflakes. It was absolute cement. My dad was trying to drive back from the Catskills and barely made it as they stayed all snow...

Agree, this does look slightly colder....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Was doing some yardwork...finally warmed but still well below normal. This is the a few lawns down from mine and has a nice angle into the sun. Mine started to look better but aside of the greening up there's no growth yet.

Won't be for awhile at these temps either. This guy has a savage lawn in the summer.

Will be a nice contrast for next weeks "maybe" snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No, not really close to an analog actually ... April '97 did not see much negative anomaly at 500mb extend beneath 35N. As modeled this is more of a full latitude trough - two stream phase of sorts - with limited slow down cut-off.

'97 was a bowling ball event that came in from the west and got a huge positive feed-back from cyclogenesis.

I'm referring to the final result and totals..not the storm type or track

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Was doing some yardwork...finally warmed but still well below normal. This is the a few lawns down from mine and has a nice angle into the sun. Mine started to look better but aside of the greening up there's no growth yet.

Won't be for awhile at these temps either. This guy has a savage lawn in the summer.

Will be a nice contrast for next weeks "maybe" snow.

I rather enjoyed my views this week, grass can wait for summer42d4d0af-57bc-331c.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No, not really close to an analog actually ... April '97 did not see much negative anomaly at 500mb extend beneath 35N. As modeled this is more of a full latitude trough - two stream phase of sorts - with limited slow down cut-off.

'97 was a bowling ball event that came in from the west and got a huge positive feed-back from cyclogenesis.

Yea, '97 was a Miller B bowling ball, which is the best kind of event for us.

This will be relatively progressive and has a milion ways to screw us.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah I recall looking at the Euro actually like 5 days out for '97 and the 850's were all in like the 0C to -2C range and as it closed of it was like a bubble of cold - cut off from the rest of the cold in Canada. Now maybe after it moved off ...cold air was tapped more and drawn down because I also recall it staying pretty cold in the Catskills that following week. They got 37 inches near North Lake (Town of Hunter) and that was 15 mins from where I lived in the valley. I went up there every morning that week and x country skiied.

I remember getting about 6" here in Westchester from 4/1/97...started as heavy rain and then the raindrops just got bigger and gloppier until they turned to snowflakes. It was absolute cement. My dad was trying to drive back from the Catskills and barely made it as they stayed all snow...

Agree, this does look slightly colder....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's akin to how every cutoff in November and December, is Dec '92..lol.

There's a pretty good chance that we don't even see an inch of snow out of the whole setup. At this time range, you could still have this cut into BUF. If there's one good thing showing up its that there is high pressure in Ontario and Quebec preceding the event...so I think at least the antecedent airmass will be good, but that can only help so much. You still need a decent track of mid-level features.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah I recall looking at the Euro actually like 5 days out for '97 and the 850's were all in like the 0C to -2C range and as it closed of it was like a bubble of cold - cut off from the rest of the cold in Canada. Now maybe after it moved off ...cold air was tapped more and drawn down because I also recall it staying pretty cold in the Catskills that following week. They got 37 inches near North Lakes (Town of Hunter) and that was 15 mins from where I lived in the valley. I went up there every morning that week and x country skiied.

I think much of the cold was dynamically produced via intense lift. However, as it sagged southeast, the lower levels did advect some cold and lower td's in, which helped as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah I recall looking at the Euro actually like 5 days out for '97 and the 850's were all in like the 0C to -2C range and as it closed of it was like a bubble of cold - cut off from the rest of the cold in Canada. Now maybe after it moved off ...cold air was tapped more and drawn down because I also recall it staying pretty cold in the Catskills that following week. They got 37 inches near North Lakes (Town of Hunter) and that was 15 mins from where I lived in the valley. I went up there every morning that week and x country skiied.

Yeah this is common in spring storms; you just get a bubble of cold 850s under the closed low's dynamics, and then as it bombs out that bubble rejoins the rest of the 0C line. Similar in 4/16/2007 when we had a bubble of sub-freezing 850s over VT and Upstate NY, picked up about 5" of snow at 350' on the Middlebury campus, but changed over when the daylight arrived.

It's often snowing under the closed low and raining outside of its influence. Classic example is 5/10/1977, snowing in Boston Commons while raining in the White Mountains. Was a similar story in the December 2008 storm in New Orleans where the Gulf Coast had a couple inches of snow while it rained hundreds of miles north in TN.

In this case, however, I expect the system to be a bit colder and everyone NW of the track should be below 0C. Surface temps might be questionable though with the lack of a big high pressure over SE Canada.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yea, '97 was a Miller B bowling ball, which is the best kind of event for us.

This will be relatively progressive and has a milion ways to screw us.

I miss real bowling balls moving across the CONUS

All we get are disorganized blobs that disappear if Wiz farts

The only bowling balls have been etched in silicon lately

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I still can't believe I was able to witness something like 4/1/97. I'll probably never see that again. Sure maybe an 18" storm in April, but I'm not sure if I'll ever be as lucky to get such a late season bomb.

Yeah you guys got destroyed up there. Incredible storm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No mowing here before May 1st.... even if it has some spurts in parts of the lawn, I refuse to do it until it needs a general cutting.

So I cut every 2 weeks (in an emergency 10 days) through mid July and then usually every three weeks until about very early October and done....

I don't care if I get uneven stunted grown in October...not worth it.

That for Kevin to help him lessen his mowing duties. ;)

Grass is waiting when you get back.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

April '97 should never even be brought up, :lol: . That is one of the biggest snowstorms on record to hit the Boston and Worcester metro areas...out of any storm...not just late season events.

Yup, that which shall not be named. I had just moved back to Cambridge that year.

Will, how much qpf was associated with the 97 storm?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...