ski MRG Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 10.9 here for this morning's low - very impressive given the time of year and only a spotty snowpack in the woods. Northern stream system could produce a light to moderate interior type event between D5 and D6. Southern stream Miller A OTS for D7-D8 for on the Euro and GFS now, but we'll see if this trends stronger and closer to the coast. Definitely appears to be a wavelength issue. Wave mechanics is a very abstract and complex science and the models seem to be having trouble with it. If the lead northern shortwave is faster, and/or the second southern stream shortwave is slower and stronger - or some scenario that leads to more separation between the waves - then the second Miller A event could be stronger and closer to the coast. Obviously, the best case would be if the two waves phased (provided it didn't yield some massive lakes cutter bomb), but that doesn't appear to be the case given the time gap between them, so the best we can hope for IMO is for some more spacing between the two events - a solution that could yield two accumulating snows for parts of SNE. There is also a northern stream kicker for the D7-D8 Miller A scenario that needs to be factored in as well. Complex situation evolving over the next few days, whether or not it produces remains to be seen. Wow Mitch, Only got down to 14 here with snow OTG. Nice post BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 The following is intended for beyond D8, general conceptual overview of emerging warm signal. Could be one heck of a transitional 2-weeks, overall, up coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 The following is intended for beyond D8, general conceptual overview of emerging warm signal. Could be one heck of a transitional 2-weeks, overall, up coming... Great news tip, those that are hoping for snows next week, I salute you, may you get your dendrites, then may spring sprung. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 As an after thought to this.... I believe last year played out similarly, when post the three March cut-off rain bombs and floods the NAO collapsed and a predominating -PNA patter emerged ...taking us into an incredibly warm spring. I would not bank on that happening this go, per se, but just to comment on the interesting similarity there if this signal goes ahead and gives us dailies featuring retreated polar boundaries and earlier than normal subtropical ridge genesis beneath 35 N. Joe D'Aleo put out an interesting blog a couple of weeks ago that nicely discussed and annotated the statistics of how DJF anomaly distributions were almost identical 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 cold seasons. It almost follows as intuitively pleasing that we see something similar, if only perhaps later in dates. If for no other reason ... what ever governing forces are having proxy over the global circulation pattern, they appear to be still having that control, so perhaps they would respond similarly to the inevitability of seasonal change. Interesting... If we wound up in a warmer than normal April ~5th onward and unending like last year that would be pretty absurd statistically to get that two years in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 The following is intended for beyond D8, general conceptual overview of emerging warm signal. Could be one heck of a transitional 2-weeks, overall, up coming... Guess you haven't seen the brutal cold Euro weeklies thru end of month and D'aleo and JB ballz cold till May 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Still only 27.5 here at noon...cold and dry rules Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 32 here, incredibly impressive but so far wasted cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Guess you haven't seen the brutal cold Euro weeklies thru end of month and D'aleo and JB ballz cold till May 1 That may be so ... but I am simply reporting what that GFS ensembles are signaling (they have been for a 3 days now). The Euro Weeklies are an entirely different species of modeling tool.... Which is right? I'll allow you to hem and haw over that. Personally, I don't use the Weeklies because I do not have access to them. 1) I don't EVER care what JB's thoughts are because they are usually not right, don't verify, and I don't appreciate his penchants and "art" (really) for spinning his incorrectness into success stories - effectively ill-gotten credibility held in check. And this has nothing to do with pettiness over who's right and wrong, but needing to actually appreciate what philosophies really work. 2) D'Aleo saying ...whatever he said, really has nothing to do with this observation of the GFS ensembles. I am not aware of his literature for the period in question, so I cannot begin to assess why he thinks that. BUT, the fact of the matter is, the leading DJF of 2009-2010 were in fact more than figuratively dead-nuts comparable to 2010-2011's DJF anomaly results; the supposition that the springs could be handled similarly has merit only in so much as speculation, and an interesting experiment to see if it actually ends up that way (again, if perhaps just temporally somewhat different). I wouldn't have made this post if it was not true - I didn't make those modalities in the teleconnectors, up. Your reply, Kev, it almost suggests that I automatically should discount this/these warm queues in lieu of any resistance to seasonal change or warming in general. I cannot do that as an objective observer/Meteorologist. I think over the long haul I do above average using what techniques I have evolved for what technologies avail to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 12z GFS seems more intent on flattening the first wave for Mar 30, and digging the 2nd wave for Apr 1-2...this is what the ECMWF had been doing before its last 2 or 3 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 That may be so ... but I am simply reporting what that GFS ensembles are signaling (they have been for a 3 days now). The Euro Weeklies are an entirely different species of modeling tool.... Which is right? I'll allow you to hem and haw over that. Personally, I don't use the Weeklies because I do not have access to them. 1) I don't EVER care what JB's thoughts are because they are usually not right, don't verify, and I don't appreciate his penchants and "art" (really) for spinning his incorrectness into success stories - effectively ill-gotten credibility held in check. And this has nothing to do with pettiness over who's right and wrong, but needing to actually appreciate what philosophies really work. 2) D'Aleo saying ...whatever he said, really has nothing to do with this observation of the GFS ensembles. I am not aware of his literature for the period in question, so I cannot begin to assess why he thinks that. BUT, the fact of the matter is, the leading DJF of 2009-2010 were in fact more than figuratively dead-nuts comparable to 2010-2011's DJF anomaly results; the supposition that the springs could be handled similarly has merit only in so much as speculation, and an interesting experiment to see if it actually ends up that way (again, if perhaps just temporally somewhat different). I wouldn't have made this post if it was not true - I didn't make those modalities in the teleconnectors, up. Your reply, Kev, it almost suggests that I automatically should discount this/these warm queues in lieu of any resistance to seasonal change or warming in general. I cannot do that as an objective observer/Meteorologist. I think over the long haul I do above average using what techniques I have evolved for what technologies avail to me. Kevin was looking at 500 anomalies, but you can have below normal height anomalies and above avg temps, especially with a Labor Day sun. The weeklies did have a cool look to them, it's obviously not a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 GFS goes digging for oil in the gulf with that main s/w in the Apr 1-2 event and misses the phase with the northern stream...but its a pretty close call. It definitely did not like the Mar 30 event as much this run, and keeps it pretty flat and not much of anything for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 GFS might be going for something that gives us some pretty mundane stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Yeah, huge change from the 06z run. Hard to have any faith in GFS solutions anymore, and it's run to run inconsistency doesn't lend it any more credence 12z GFS seems more intent on flattening the first wave for Mar 30, and digging the 2nd wave for Apr 1-2...this is what the ECMWF had been doing before its last 2 or 3 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom MA wx Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 OT- Jay Peak is reporting 10-12 inches since 6 AM this morning!! A dusting was forecasted. http://www.facebook.com/JayPeakFan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Yeah, huge change from the 06z run. Hard to have any faith in GFS solutions anymore, and it's run to run inconsistency doesn't lend it any more credence This far out, you are going to see a lot of flip flops given the number of s/ws embedded in the flow. Euro a few runs ago looked like this with the Mar 30 wave and then the past few runs its started to like it more. GFS all of the sudden at 12z doesn't like that wave as much. We'll see if the Euro agrees in a little while, but either way, we are far enough out that we can see plenty of large swings. I'd like for the first wave to be a potent little coastal, but I've kept mentioning how that is the wave that has the least room to amplify so I won't be surprised if the flatter appeal for that wave is the more correct scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 whiff, whiff. Did not expect that from goofus, tips warmth looks on schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 This far out, you are going to see a lot of flip flops given the number of s/ws embedded in the flow. Euro a few runs ago looked like this with the Mar 30 wave and then the past few runs its started to like it more. GFS all of the sudden at 12z doesn't like that wave as much. We'll see if the Euro agrees in a little while, but either way, we are far enough out that we can see plenty of large swings. I'd like for the first wave to be a potent little coastal, but I've kept mentioning how that is the wave that has the least room to amplify so I won't be surprised if the flatter appeal for that wave is the more correct scenario. The GFS totally came in weaker with that s/w coming into the Plains at hr 78. At hr 84 on the 06z GFS, it was about to close off already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Congrats on 516dm thicknesses with light snow on 4/9-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 ouch good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 good post. Coming from him it sums it up nicely... GFS - toss it unless it shows snow in Kevs fanny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 29.8/8, slash pile burning nicely. Need marshmallows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 What a horrible run. Almost Tobin time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 What a horrible run. Almost Tobin time. Sneaky sneaky weenies jumping... well, still time to reorganize... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 What a horrible run. Almost Tobin time. It appears to be wave interference at ever turn from now until D10 on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 12z GFS ensemble mean is hitting the Apr 1-2 system quite hard...they definitely like it more than the Mar 30 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 12z GFS ensemble mean is hitting the Apr 1-2 system quite hard...they definitely like it more than the Mar 30 threat. lol yeah that's nice....goes to show you the Op is of really limited use at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 12z GFS ensemble mean is hitting the Apr 1-2 system quite hard...they definitely like it more than the Mar 30 threat. Will what would we want from the 30th system in order to maximize potential with the 1st? I'm assuming the 30/31 system would affect the 1st since theyre so close? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Will what would we want from the 30th system in order to maximize potential with the 1st? I'm assuming the 30/31 system would affect the 1st since there so close? Well most of the scenarios that have had a large system on Apr 1-2 have had very little of anything on the 30th hinting that the pattern for a larger system would likely be better if we can keep the flow more zonal out ahead of it...it will give it a chance to amplify. If the 3/30 system sort of nukes out, it will tend to have a little more NW flow behind it which limits the ability for the 2nd system to amplify. That's just one quick and simple explanation...there's smaller factors too that we cannot possibly decipher yet that will also play a role. (i.e just how much phasing, strength of vort max, etc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I know several have posted that it is more difficult this time of year to see storms more than a day or 2 away with any accuracy. Why is it easier in the winter? Is it just the cold? Or are things moving faster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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