ORH_wxman Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 It looks as if even I get snow from the 0z GFS, would be an incredible to have snow here on 3/30 from a SW flow event but this block has ushered in an unseasonably cold airmass. Will, do you believe the CAD the GFS is showing around 114? Could this system trend a lot warmer with the primary so far north and secondary development looking to be much more limited than initially thought? At this point, anything is on the table for that system...it could trend warmer or colder. The 3/21 system trended significantly colder as we got closer. The synoptic 5h pattern on the GFS has a mini-block up the Hudson Bay region much like the 3/21 event did, so it would be tougher to get it really far NW. The Apr 1-2 system makes a much closer pass on the GFS than it first looked like it might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 00z GFS is inches away from a huge snow bomb 4/2 Yea it is really honking at 180, close call: One thing to watch, however, is the BL temps with that low pressure over SE Canada. Not exactly a classic pattern for a late-season snowstorm but it's a MASSIVE closed low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 00z GFS is inches away from a huge snow bomb 4/2 You should have seen the 18z run...it never got the low out of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 At this point, anything is on the table for that system...it could trend warmer or colder. The 3/21 system trended significantly colder as we got closer. The synoptic 5h pattern on the GFS has a mini-block up the Hudson Bay region much like the 3/21 event did, so it would be tougher to get it really far NW. The Apr 1-2 system makes a much closer pass on the GFS than it first looked like it might. Yeah, that 3/21 storm was a big surprise here, didn't expect to get 1.25" snow as it looked like all rain was the forecast and expectation. Interesting that we're having such an intense period of cold storminess in late March after it looked as spring was coming in. I guess La Niña expectations of a return to blocking were justified despite the fact that it took longer than we thought. Also, we might be getting close to some sort of Kelvin Wave which could help with a late season snowfall....El Niño looks to be gathering momentum at this point, and some of our biggest late-season storms have come at the beginning of a strong Niño like April 1982, April 1987, and April 1997. Might be coincidence but might also have to do with tropical convection changes pumping the PNA ridging as we transition from Niña to Niño, don't know. I'll be in Chicago for a fellowship interview on April 1st but am watching this system closely. Could drive home the night of 4/1 if need be for a monster Nor'easter. Could also affect the Midwest. I just worry about staying cold at the surface on 4/2 with a low pressure over SE Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Yea it is really honking at 180, close call: One thing to watch, however, is the BL temps with that low pressure over SE Canada. Not exactly a classic pattern for a late-season snowstorm but it's a MASSIVE closed low. Upper level dynamics are very impressive. And could be even moreso with any more of a phase. This would be the type of stuff that would bust through BL issues no problem ... if this verifies that is lol Regardless of the outcome, at least we certainly don't have a boring week ahead of us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 It's coming...the footsteps are getting louder LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS E SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS INTO SW NH...AND INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN CT AND NW RI WED NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 It's coming...the footsteps are getting louder LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS E SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS INTO SW NH...AND INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN CT AND NW RI WED NIGHT. That portion of the AFD is weenie-worthy. The actual forecasts and other parts of the AFD are a little deflating. Lots of time to get it sorted out though. Enough snow is gone for me to pile slash and brush and start burning (my cold notwithstanding). Might even start felling some trees--glad I marked the victims in the summer when they had leaves. Busy, busy weekend. 18.7/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 What a nice cold, brisk morning out there. Euro ensembles pretty flat with the first wave, indicating some uncertainty in track, but also ptype as the 06z GFS flips peeps over to rain, esp south of the Pike. We'll need that to really wind up and not be a swfe, but even so..some snow was occurring before it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 What a nice cold, brisk morning out there. Euro ensembles pretty flat with the first wave, indicating some uncertainty in track, but also ptype as the 06z flips peeps over to rain, esp south of the Pike. We'll need that to really wind up and not be a swfe, but even so..some snow was occurring before it happened. The 6z Euro? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 The house you build are kinda fugly. I hope it is the design and not slant stick mistakes... We set up the scouts first aluminum derby track tonight. Very sweet, fast track. We had poor measuring skills. Took a while to get it straight. I really hope at least one good spring snow hits us. Last week was a good appetizer. Nice Dave,lol. We build everything from period reproductions to ultra-modern. You've probaby only seen the modern monster I'm building currently. Loved the Pine wood derby when I was a scout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 The 6z Euro? LOL No GFS..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Impressive cold this morning 23 clear I wonder how much colder it might have been if the last storm did not bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 The 6z Euro? LOL There are still some questions, but at least one of these can drop a few inches for some. If I were you, I would cheer for something that wraps up more to the se. I wish that second storm would just bomb off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 There are still some questions, but at least one of these can drop a few inches for some. If I were you, I would cheer for something that wraps up more to the se. I wish that second storm would just bomb off the coast. I still think the April 1 storm is the one that bombs all of us..even BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I don't buy the torch the Euro is advertising days 9-10..highs into the 70's lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 14.7F at 8AM Springalicious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 What a nice cold, brisk morning out there. Euro ensembles pretty flat with the first wave, indicating some uncertainty in track, but also ptype as the 06z GFS flips peeps over to rain, esp south of the Pike. We'll need that to really wind up and not be a swfe, but even so..some snow was occurring before it happened. The Euro Op looks pretty good with the system at 120-144 hours . Does that stay mainly snow or does it turn over? I'm just looking at Raleigh's 24 hour graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Had a low of 18.6 here sometime early this morning. Heading out for a brisk (20.5/5) walk with the dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Up to 22.2/6 at 9:00a.m.. Time to start burning. If there were more snow on the ground, I'd think it was a mid-winter burn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I don't buy the torch the Euro is advertising days 9-10..highs into the 70's lol Blizzard then spring! I'm on board! Off to Vegas just now. PM me any favorite things to do there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Blizzard then spring! I'm on board! Off to Vegas just now. PM me any favorite things to do there! Have fun.Limit gambling losses to 50k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Blizzard then spring! I'm on board! Off to Vegas just now. PM me any favorite things to do there! I love that town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Got down to 22* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 10.9 here for this morning's low - very impressive given the time of year and only a spotty snowpack in the woods. Northern stream system could produce a light to moderate interior type event between D5 and D6. Southern stream Miller A OTS for D7-D8 for on the Euro and GFS now, but we'll see if this trends stronger and closer to the coast. Definitely appears to be a wavelength issue. Wave mechanics is a very abstract and complex science and the models seem to be having trouble with it. If the lead northern shortwave is faster, and/or the second southern stream shortwave is slower and stronger - or some scenario that leads to more separation between the waves - then the second Miller A event could be stronger and closer to the coast. Obviously, the best case would be if the two waves phased (provided it didn't yield some massive lakes cutter bomb), but that doesn't appear to be the case given the time gap between them, so the best we can hope for IMO is for some more spacing between the two events - a solution that could yield two accumulating snows for parts of SNE. There is also a northern stream kicker for the D7-D8 Miller A scenario that needs to be factored in as well. Complex situation evolving over the next few days, whether or not it produces remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Got down on my knees since I was 22* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 It was 21 here last night....warmed to 32 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Low of 22F last night. 29F now. 6 days til Opening Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 The Euro Op looks pretty good with the system at 120-144 hours . Does that stay mainly snow or does it turn over? I'm just looking at Raleigh's 24 hour graphics. Yeah it does. It gets close to IP on the euro maps from a line near Tolland to Boston, but it's pretty cold in the lower levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I'll never forget the sound of transformers beginning to fail as well. There was that loud droning sound with constant flickers. By the way Will, I had a nice chat with meteotrade about 4/28/87. He said remembers Burbank drawing the flakes on the screen over central mass in the weather cast and couldn't believe it...remember back then they had to draw or post those icons. He remembers walking home from school in the middle of the storm and couldn't believe how fast it piled up (this was in Hubbardston). He lost power for several days in that storm. I got that during the ice storm of Dec '08 in Acton. Thing is, we really didn't get much ice there.... about .2" accretion mainly on the tree tops. Interestingly, no ice below 10' elevation. The sited the reason was because when ORH county started to go it drew too much from surrounding grid and it overloaded the circuits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Just saw the Euro...thats a nice compact little coastal. Still over 5 days out though and the shortwaves interacting are a mess with how close they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.