weatherwiz Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Discussion: After getting an early taste of spring weather last week the weather this week has taken a complete 180 as winter winter is set to return. With the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) plunging into the negative phase over the past few days the polar vortex in Canada has been squshed well to the south, setting up just north of the US/Canadien border. With the polar vortex displaced further south this is setting up a strong zone of confluence which will run right through northern New England. This confluence will help to sqush storm systems further south of our region. At this same time the southeast ridge has set up and has been building northward. This has set up a nice battle zone running right through southern New England. A storm system moving from the northern/central Plains and through the Ohio Valley region will not make an impact on here. Due to the strong confluence to our north the system will pass us to the south, this means we will see a colder solution, giving us a good chance for snows. With strong lift associated with the system and ample moisture within the system and being drawn into the system we will see snow negin to increase in coverage and intensity. The storm will be a somewhat fast mover so this should preclude any significant snowfall accumulations. This storm will have have a VERY sharp gradient as far as snowfall totals go. Forecast: Snow should break out across CT/RI/MA in the late morning to early afternoon hours. Snow should be on the light to light-to-moderate side for the better part of the afternoon. As we move into the evening and through the evening hours snowfall should increase in intensity. Here snowfall rates could get up to 1''/HR...perhaps even as high as 1.5''/HR. THe heaviest snowfall rates should occur from CT to RI. North of here snowfall rates should be a bit less as this area will be a bit removed from the strongest part of the storm. Snow should begin winding down by the overnight/early morning hours of Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 So I take it I am 3-7"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 So I take it I am 3-7"? Where exactly is Dobbs Ferry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Where exactly is Dobbs Ferry? It's on the east side of the Hudson River just north of the latitude of the NY-NJ border on the opposing side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 It's on the east side of the Hudson River just north of the latitude of the NY-NJ border on the opposing side. Probably more 2-4'' zone...probably some mixing issues more down that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Probably more 2-4'' zone...probably some mixing issues more down that way. We'll see...someone in Queens is at 34/31 and reporting moderate snow with sticking to cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 Looking at some forecasts from the NWS this is pretty ballsy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 We'll see...someone in Queens is at 34/31 and reporting moderate snow with sticking to cars. That could bode well up this way, especially for the shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 That could bode well up this way, especially for the shoreline. BL temps definitely a concern here at the shoreline...although HVN now reporting snow at 38, and with the dewpoint at 24 temps should certainly fall several degrees as long as there's steady precip. Still, might be hard to see anything more than some slush on the grass during the daytime. Tonight could be interesting as there's the possibility of a band of moderate snow setting up somewhere. FWIW, for the shoreline at least, I like a compromise between your forecast and NWS...2-4" could work out. But I can understand Upton's conservatism given climatology for the shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 BL temps definitely a concern here at the shoreline...although HVN now reporting snow at 38, and with the dewpoint at 24 temps should certainly fall several degrees as long as there's steady precip. Still, might be hard to see anything more than some slush on the grass during the daytime. Tonight could be interesting as there's the possibility of a band of moderate snow setting up somewhere. FWIW, for the shoreline at least, I like a compromise between your forecast and NWS...2-4" could work out. But I can understand Upton's conservatism given climatology for the shoreline. This seems like quite a complicated forecast, lots of model variability with not a great deal of agreement, however, I really have not had the time to spend a great deal of effort into following the system and all the details and such. Perhaps the 3-7'' range is a bit too high...maybe something like 2-5'' would have been better but we'll see what happens. I don't really have any issues with my totals, it's just figuring out the northward extent of the highest totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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