Edge Weather Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 NAM snowfall map on StormVista has everyone from Rt. 78 North in the 8-12 inch band and from Trenton to Asbury Park north in the 4-8 inch band. And the 2-4 inch band about 10 miles south of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I'll take the 6z NAM and a clean pair of shorts... In other news, wet snow continues here with a little sign of accumulation on the cars. Hoping my friend gets in KHPN at 6... We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 only on occasion does the 6/18z guidance trump the soundings model runs. I wouldnt take them to heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 only on occasion does the 6/18z guidance trump the soundings model runs. I wouldnt take them to heart. Yes, but if that happened, Upton is going to be going ape@#%! trying to get word out. At night that would be damn close to Warning criteria everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Im out. enjoy your snow before sunup weenies! It's a grass event today, trust me. Stay tuned to our blog for info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Yeah boy. lol If only........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 6z NAM is about perfect if you like snow. I just checked the soundings and if you like snow the only time the upper levels above 850 get above freezing to change things over to sleet is between both main pushes of precipitation this afternoon. When that next push of moisture comes in tonight, the column cools completely below freezing again. This storm will be at least 90% snow for everyone in Northern New Jersey and both main pushes of precipitation will happen after or near dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 It's so pretty outside. The parking lot is getting slushy, and some parts of it are white. The trees look great--especially in the streetlights. And of course, the grass is covered. I just love it when the trees are covered in snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 NAM finally got a clue - for several runs prior to this one, it's been showing a rather amplified shortwave entering the base of the trough tonight, and a nice consolidated 850 mb low, but lackluster QPF. One caveat, however, convection to our south over the mid-Atlantic may rob some of the precip. up here. SPC WRF shows this possibility, although it's still wetter than the 0Z NAM. Here's the SPC WRF 1-hour precip valid 0z tonight: Why, hello there, 6z NAM. http://www.nco.ncep....am_pcp_024l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 NAM finally got a clue - for several runs it's been showing a rather amplified shortwave entering the base of the trough tonight, and a nice consolidated 850 mb low, but lackluster QPF. So you agree with its solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The timing of the heavier periods of precipitation correspond with the colder periods, talk about timing. Still like my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Unfortunately, the ongoing snow right now makes for a rough commute in northern NJ and extreme western LI, even if the snow doesn't stick much after dawn. Most people in those areas went to bed expecting light snow or a mix beginning around dawn with no snow on the roads during the morning commute aside from the most elevated areas, and what's going on now is quite different. In fairness, I think OKX is factoring the sunup forecast. What we are seeing now is not what they are forecasting for. they are forecasting for the daylight hours. And once the sun comes up, most areas will see marginal snow sticking save the higher terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 NAM finally got a clue - for several runs prior to this one, it's been showing a rather amplified shortwave entering the base of the trough tonight, and a nice consolidated 850 mb low, but lackluster QPF. One caveat, however, convection to our south over the mid-Atlantic may rob some of the precip. up here. SPC WRF shows this possibility, although it's still wetter than the 0Z NAM. Here's the SPC WRF 1-hour precip valid 0z tonight: Yeah, often times, models don't handle convective feedback very well, but in a lot of cases, convective feedback is a real process that needs to be considered. Do you think convective feedback could also have an effect on the surface low's track, as well as the precip shield? I would think it would want to place the surface low closest to the convection? If that's true, it could be a reason why the GFS had been so insistent in being so far north, since it might not have been picking up on the convection so well. I mean, we have mod risks in the Ohio Valley! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 The banding is really having trouble moving north. Snowing here but intensity is poor, everything just wet at 35.6F. Westchester might get some good banding soon but places in the immediate NJ suburbs are going to do best with this overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 On the whole, yes, but I think precip. will be more banded/convective than suggested by the NAM (meaning some areas will get shafted a bit), and with the caveat that convection over southern PA/NJ/MD/DE may rob us of some of the precip. shown by the NAM. So you agree with its solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 ETA comes through for the overnight crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 On the whole, yes, but I think precip. will be more banded/convective than suggested by the NAM (meaning some areas will get shafted a bit), and with the caveat that convection over southern PA/NJ/MD/DE may rob us of some of the precip. shown by the NAM. What do you think happens tonight for the general NYC area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 33.8*/30* w/ Lgt-Mod Snow.. Sticking to all surfaces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 ETA comes through for the overnight crew I'm getting more excited about this now. What a winter if it can snow, or it might snow it seems it will and usually a lot more than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 RUC valid at 07Z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 ETA is too weak and too slow on this morning's overrunning precip - yesterday's 15z run was better (though likely overdone). Many areas have already had significantly more QPF through 9z than the ETA indicates through 15z (lower right panel of image below). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 RUC valid at 07Z Thursday. Nice.... 0.5 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The main period of accumulating snow tonight will be from around 8PM to 3AM, but due to the convective nature of precip. there will likely be periods of moderate/heavy snow interspersed with lighter snow from around 8PM to 3AM. Total accumulations on grassy surfaces ranging from: 3-5" in NE Queens and far northern Bronx 1-3" in Manhattan, southern Bronx, the rest of Queens away from immediate coast, and northern Brooklyn Trace to 2" in southern Brooklyn, the Rockaway peninsula, and JFK airport. What do you think happens tonight for the general NYC area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The main period of accumulating snow tonight will be from around 8PM to 3AM, but due to the convective nature of precip. there will likely be periods of moderate/heavy snow interspersed with lighter snow from around 8PM to 3AM. Total accumulations on grassy surfaces ranging from 3-5" in NE Queens and N Bronx to 1-3" in Manhattan as well as Queens and Brooklyn away from immediate coast, to a trace to 2" in southern Brooklyn, the Rockaway peninsula, and JFK airport. That doesnt include what's happening right now, does it JC? The roads are already covered here and this morning's commute will be tough lol. Might end up with 1-2" just with what's falling right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Light drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Yes, it does include what's falling now. My forecast for JFK reflects the fact that it's a mini heat island surrounded by jet exhaust where snow has a lot of trouble sticking. Your area, though only about 5 miles from JFK, is suburban and thus will likely see more than JFK - probably about 2-5". Out of curiosity, how much did you get in the April Fools 1997 storm? JFK had only 1.7" and LGA only 0.4". That doesnt include what's happening right now, does it JC? The roads are already covered here and this morning's commute will be tough lol. Might end up with 1-2" just with what's falling right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Close to 2 inches. Coming down good. Okay who did this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Close to 2 inches. Coming down good. Okay who did this You makin it over to Holmdel at any point? keep me posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Blairstown, Warren County 5am 4.5 inches of accumulation Liquid equivalent is .33 Temperature 31.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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