A-L-E-X Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 You'll go over to snow quickly as the echoes intensify. You and I are always much colder than JFK/NYC. Precip type is a function of intensity.... as long as you get good rates it will snow. Temp dropped like 10 degrees in an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 INTESITY is KEY, especially after sunup folks. I dont care what the colder NAM has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 HRRR total snowfall through 20Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 INTESITY is KEY, especially after sunup folks. I dont care what the colder NAM has You think this might be like Jan 26-27? Strong early hit which was a surprise, then a lull in the middle when it mixes, then another strong hit tonight? Im wondering if we can get convective snow out of this -- lots of reports of thundersnow and thundersleet to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 You think this might be like Jan 26-27? Strong early hit which was a surprise, then a lull in the middle when it mixes, then another strong hit tonight? Im wondering if we can get convective snow out of this -- lots of reports of thundersnow and thundersleet to our west. it's possible. the air mass to our W is very unstable. If that runs into our area, we could see TSSN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Still think you'll get more than NYC's immediate suburbs in NNJ? Yes.. even more so now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 but, i will say, any convection will try to warm the column, so with marginal temps, it will be a battle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 ALL SNOW here as of 3:25 AM coming down moderately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 It's been ripping here for the past half hour or so! Grass is covered, cars are white, and the parking lots are starting to get slushy. This is awesome!!! 33/32 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The early precip. start makes this a very tricky forecast. I still think temps will warm enough once the initial precip. band moves past to change to a light rain/snow mix or non-accumulating snow in most of NYC and the South Shore of Nassau and western Suffolk. Then the main show associated with the coastal low arrives between 5 and 8PM tonight from west to east and exits between 2 and 5AM. Most of this should be snow, but areas like JFK and EWR will likely see a mix with sleet or rain for a few hours at the beginning. Here are my forecast accumulations: BDR: 4-7" HVN: 3-6" GON: 3-6" DXR: 5-8" MMK: 4-8" EWR: 1-3" TEB: 3-5" West Milford, NJ: 6-9" SWF: 6-9" HPN: 4-7" NYC: 1-3" LGA: 1-3" JFK: 0-2" FRG: 2-4" ISP: 2-4" FOK: 3-5" OKX: 3-6" Port Jefferson, NY: 3-6" Orient Point, NY: 4-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 but, i will say, any convection will try to warm the column, so with marginal temps, it will be a battle It might be better tonight when the temps drop again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The early precip. start makes this a very tricky forecast. I still think temps will warm enough once the initial precip. band moves past to change to a light rain/snow mix or non-accumulating snow in most of NYC and the South Shore of Nassau and western Suffolk. Then the main show associated with the coastal low arrives between 5 and 8PM tonight from west to east and exits between 2 and 5AM. Most of this should be snow, but areas like JFK and EWR will likely see a mix with sleet or rain for a few hours at the beginning. Here are my forecast accumulations: BDR: 4-7" HVN: 3-6" GON: 3-6" DXR: 5-8" MMK: 4-8" EWR: 1-3" TEB: 3-5" West Milford, NJ: 6-9" SWF: 6-9" HPN: 4-7" NYC: 1-3" LGA: 1-3" JFK: 0-2" FRG: 2-4" ISP: 2-4" FOK: 3-5" OKX: 3-6" Port Jefferson, NY: 3-6" Orient Point, NY: 4-7" This really does sound somewhat like Jan 26-27. Im hoping any mix with that second band doesnt last more than two hours like last time and the high snowfall rates make up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 It's been ripping here for the past half hour or so! Grass is covered, cars are white, and the parking lots are starting to get slushy. This is awesome!!! 33/32 here. New Brunswick? Nice...drove through the area about 45 mins ago and it was just changing to snow it seemed. grass coverings started once I got to Peapack/Gladstone on 206.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Yes, it does have some similarities - I am expecting the main show to be tonight, with at least 2/3 of the QPF from the entire storm falling between 5PM Wed and 7AM Thu. This system isn't as dynamic as 1/26-27, but thundersnow isn't out of the question given the elevated instability and ongoing convection to our west. However, unlike 1/26-27, I don't expect snowfall rates more than 1" per hour in NYC and most of LI. For NYC/LI, tonight could be one of those situations where 0.10 to 0.15" of liquid per hour is falling but visibility is only around 1 mile and only about 1/2" per hour of snow accumulates. I could see >1" per hour for a few hours where the best snow growth will be - in elevated areas from around Passaic County through lower Hudson Valley into interior SW CT, and perhaps extending to the North Fork of LI. You think this might be like Jan 26-27? Strong early hit which was a surprise, then a lull in the middle when it mixes, then another strong hit tonight? Im wondering if we can get convective snow out of this -- lots of reports of thundersnow and thundersleet to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 It might be better tonight when the temps drop again. That is the main show, plain and simple, in fact there may be a fairly good lull in the afternoon. Another key is if the severe squall line hinders moisture up here tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Starting to get a little heavier and a few flakes are mixing in... Just as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Nice!! MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0254 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY/N CENTRAL AND ERN PA/NRN NJ CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 230732Z - 231130Z WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR -- AND LOCALLY NEARING OR EXCEEDING TWO INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES -- CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION ATTM...AS SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET TRANSLATES EWD INTO THE AREA. A STEADY BAND OF HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO SET UP FROM SRN ONTARIO ESEWD INTO NRN NJ...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE WARMING FROM THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN -- AND THEN TO RAIN -- ALONG AND W OF THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...A BELOW-FREEZING ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND INTO DAYBREAK. ..GOSS.. 03/23/2011 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 41517766 42057919 42607992 43297936 43307885 42067580 41087403 40497422 40517497 40597581 41517766 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Nice!! MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0254 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY/N CENTRAL AND ERN PA/NRN NJ CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 230732Z - 231130Z WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR -- AND LOCALLY NEARING OR EXCEEDING TWO INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES -- CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION ATTM...AS SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET TRANSLATES EWD INTO THE AREA. A STEADY BAND OF HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO SET UP FROM SRN ONTARIO ESEWD INTO NRN NJ...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE WARMING FROM THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN -- AND THEN TO RAIN -- ALONG AND W OF THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...A BELOW-FREEZING ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND INTO DAYBREAK. ..GOSS.. 03/23/2011 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 41517766 42057919 42607992 43297936 43307885 42067580 41087403 40497422 40517497 40597581 41517766 looka good. it is ripping here in NW NJ now. Cant think that MD is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 i do feel this event right now is all night driven. i mean, once we get twds 8am, this stuff will melt on the roads, at least here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Yes, it does have some similarities - I am expecting the main show to be tonight, with at least 2/3 of the QPF from the entire storm falling between 5PM Wed and 7AM Thu. This system isn't as dynamic as 1/26-27, but thundersnow isn't out of the question given the elevated instability and ongoing convection to our west. However, unlike 1/26-27, I don't expect snowfall rates more than 1" per hour in NYC and most of LI. For NYC/LI, tonight could be one of those situations where 0.10 to 0.15" of liquid per hour is falling but visibility is only around 1 mile and only about 1/2" per hour of snow accumulates. I could see >1" per hour for a few hours where the best snow growth will be - in elevated areas from around Passaic County through lower Hudson Valley into interior SW CT, and perhaps extending to the North Fork of LI. This indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Where in NW NJ are you? What elevation? i do feel this event right now is all night driven. i mean, once we get twds 8am, this stuff will melt on the roads, at least here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 It's sticking to my driveway, but nobody elses..and no roads. driveway FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 It's sticking to my driveway, but nobody elses..and no roads. driveway FTW 32/32 in New Brunswick. Wow. Probably more like 32.5/32, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 This indeed. not too high. right along I78 in hunterdon county. N of here is the real elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 i do think the main precip or stead precip is today, then tonight is convective, or hit or miss as is usual with that. Meaniing, the stratiform precip is tdy, and covective is tnt, and has some breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Its sticking to the roadways heavy snow northern middlesex county NJ near edison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The 12-km NAM soundings do show significant low-level warming after sunrise and once precip. intensity lets up. INTESITY is KEY, especially after sunup folks. I dont care what the colder NAM has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 took a while, but it's all wet snow here in the NW Bronx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 -SN 37.1/32 Started out a little wet but rapidly transitioned to all flakes as it picked up in intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The 12-km NAM soundings do show significant low-level warming after sunrise and once precip. intensity lets up. is that the 12km NAM? idk if that source uses that res for that output. but even so, it is in the ballpark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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