jconsor Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 The fact that lower resolution models like the GGEM and Ukie outperformed higher-resolution ones like the NAM, RGEM and HRRR is in this case has to do with the high-res models being too sensitive to convection. Euro, UKIE and Ggem all nailed this at 12z today. They all had very little tonight and they were 100% correct. American models failed until the 18z NAM which also took away tonights event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 24, 2011 Author Share Posted March 24, 2011 The fact that lower resolution models like the GGEM and Ukie outperformed higher-resolution ones like the NAM, RGEM and HRRR is in this case has to do with the high-res models being too sensitive to convection. Do you think that area of precip in NJ can hit us? Actually the best accumulations of the event here with consistent light snow at 31.5/30. Really sticking well in the elevated nature preserve behind my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 The event's definitely not over. Should see off and on light snow continue through around 11z. Do you think that area of precip in NJ can hit us? Actually the best accumulations of the event here with consistent light snow at 31.5/30. Really sticking well in the elevated nature preserve behind my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Just got home from the city, It's coming down pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 24, 2011 Author Share Posted March 24, 2011 Just got home from the city, It's coming down pretty good. It looks like there is a finger of precip that is trying to push towards NYC area. Temps are certainly supportive here. 31.3/30 and -SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Steady lgt snow continues here.. 4.5" on the ground w/ a temp of 26* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 The event's definitely not over. Should see off and on light snow continue through around 11z. Yeah its been snowing steadily here for hours-- might get another inch-- that would make JFK the local area jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 24, 2011 Author Share Posted March 24, 2011 Yeah its been snowing steadily here for hours-- might get another inch-- that would make JFK the local area jackpot Radar is really filling in over E PA and NJ so this may be the time for the coastal to swing some colder bands through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 There were definitely warning signs on the models that temps would be a big problem for areas near the coast. These areas really needed a bombing coastal low, since temps were very borderline. This is why I called for only a trace to an inch for NYC, and it looks as if that's working out well. No, you keep thinking temperature is the most impotant variable here - it's not, intensity is. I live a few miles from Raritan Bay, i.e., pretty damn near the coast, and received 2.5" of snow this morning. I just happened to be in a fortunate spot that received an hour or two of higher intensity snow when it was 33-34 at the surface - if Central Park had received the same intensity snow as I did before sunrise, they also would've accumulated a similar amount. Of course, temperature is important, as most places that received 0.5" or more of QPF during the daylight hours, but failed to accumulate much snow, would have accumulated low intensity snow at the same surface temps in January, but there's no question it wasn't too warm for accumulating snow, given a decent snowfall rate, meaning a coastal bomb, while nice, wasn't necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 No, you keep thinking temperature is the most impotant variable here - it's not, intensity is. I live a few miles from Raritan Bay, i.e., pretty damn near the coast, and received 2.5" of snow this morning. I just happened to be in a fortunate spot that received an hour or two of higher intensity snow when it was 33-34 at the surface - if Central Park had received the same intensity snow as I did before sunrise, they also would've accumulated a similar amount. Of course, temperature is important, as most places that received 0.5" or more of QPF during the daylight hours, but failed to accumulate much snow, would have accumulated low intensity snow at the same surface temps in January, but there's no question it wasn't too warm for accumulating snow, given a decent snowfall rate, meaning a coastal bomb, while nice, wasn't necessary. The night time timing + intensity is what did it... that's why we're closing in on 2" total here on the south shore also. It's actually been colder than progged the last 2 nights; around 32 here both nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Cool storm. Had about 2" of snow overnight last night. Then thundersleet and now its snowing again and will continue for another hour or 2. Im 10 miles west of NYC and will likely end up with 3" total roughly. Not bad for late march! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 nice to see it filling in a little to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 thus band rules, accumulating everywhere. probably 2" on grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 24, 2011 Author Share Posted March 24, 2011 thus band rules, accumulating everywhere. probably 2" on grass Yes, snowing very nicely here,even had some bursts of moderate intensity, best part of the storm. -SN 29.9/29 1.25" new tonight, 1.75" storm total Impressive to be snowing in the 20s in late March here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Yes, snowing very nicely here,even had some bursts of moderate intensity, best part of the storm. -SN 29.9/29 1.25" new tonight, 1.75" storm total Impressive to be snowing in the 20s in late March here. Yup snowing here moderately also-- looks like all those backbuilding ideas weren't so farfetched after all. It would be funny if we were the only people awake to witness this lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Been snowing nicely for a little while now. 32 degrees. There is a thick dusting on the grass, a whitening of the parking lot, and the cars are covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Been snowing nicely for a little while now. 32 degrees. There is a thick dusting on the grass, a whitening of the parking lot, and the cars are covered. 2 nights in a row.... not too bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 24, 2011 Author Share Posted March 24, 2011 Been snowing nicely for a little while now. 32 degrees. There is a thick dusting on the grass, a whitening of the parking lot, and the cars are covered. Looks like the area near Riverhead, Long Island is getting pounded, 35dbz returns there, must be some good shows for the N Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Yup snowing here moderately also-- looks like all those backbuilding ideas weren't so farfetched after all. It would be funny if we were the only people awake to witness this lol. If it's snowing, but no one is awake to see it, did it really snow? A bad parody of the "tree falling in the forest with no one there" thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 No, you keep thinking temperature is the most impotant variable here - it's not, intensity is. I live a few miles from Raritan Bay, i.e., pretty damn near the coast, and received 2.5" of snow this morning. I just happened to be in a fortunate spot that received an hour or two of higher intensity snow when it was 33-34 at the surface - if Central Park had received the same intensity snow as I did before sunrise, they also would've accumulated a similar amount. Of course, temperature is important, as most places that received 0.5" or more of QPF during the daylight hours, but failed to accumulate much snow, would have accumulated low intensity snow at the same surface temps in January, but there's no question it wasn't too warm for accumulating snow, given a decent snowfall rate, meaning a coastal bomb, while nice, wasn't necessary. yeah he drop the ball. I had a soil temp of 50 and ended up with 2 on the grass and close to a inch on paved surfaces. He said he be shock if his back yard got more then a slushy coating. It did and now he is trying to lobby his case with time square. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 If it's snowing, but no one is awake to see it, did it really snow? A bad parody of the "tree falling in the forest with no one there" thing. As long as it doesnt melt by the time people wake up, it did indeed snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 If it's snowing, but no one is awake to see it, did it really snow? A bad parody of the "tree falling in the forest with no one there" thing. Lol yes long as they wake up before sunrise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 2 nights in a row.... not too bad! Not bad at all for late March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 yeah he drop the ball. I had a soil temp of 50 and ended up with 2 on the grass and close to a inch on paved surfaces. He said he be shock if his back yard got more then a slushy coating. It did and now he is trying to lobby his case with time square. And we just got some more accumulating snow, too. Getting accumulating snow in late March is more common than getting 60"+ of snow in a strong La Nina. Oh hey, we did that too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 And we just got some more accumulating snow, too. Getting accumulating snow in late March is more common than getting 60"+ of snow in a strong La Nina. Oh hey, we did that too! yep how bout that to fresh snowfalls in two nights. But he said I need a colder 850 to get snow at the end of march. Tri stat met says the euro model was rain for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 yep how bout that to fresh snowfalls in two nights. But he said I need a colder 850 to get snow at the end of march. Tri stat met says the euro model was rain for the coast. Who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Who? Winterwx21. 32 light snow continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Fuggedaboutit. It's over. <Realizes he will need to call on his power over the elements> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 How are you enjoying the snow william? It usually does not snow here after feb 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 I'd say we have about a half inch now on the Upper West Side (on cartops etc--a coating on sidewalks now, streets still just wet). Light snow at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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