RutgersWx92 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Anyone whining about a couple of inches of snow/sleet in late March needs to have their weenie license revoked. Tonight, I drove from Metuchen to RU's Busch Campus in Piscataway for a grad school/industry panel discussion (eng'g) between 7:45 pm and 8:05 pm and I drove through an amazing band of serious thundersleet the whole way. The sleet was pouring down and I could hear the rumble of thunder and see the flashes of lightning overhead - amazing. Roads got icy quickly. Our discussion was over by about 9:45 pm and when I came out there was about 1/2" of sleet/snow on the ground (looks like it must've snowed some) and the drive home was pretty slick. Temps were 32F the whole drive back and it was a mixture of light freezing rain and snow falling - could be a little icy tomorrow am (before sunrise, mostly) if temps drop another degree or two and we get some more freezing rain. All in all, 2.5" of snow this morning and 1/2" of sleet/snow this evening is a pretty damn good "spring" day. It was a good event for late March - I agree - but considering the expectations going into this storm and the amount of QPF the models were spitting out for areas that barely received a third of that, I can see why some would be disappointed. Incidentally I was on Busch Campus at that time as well and it was really amazing. Frequent flashes of lightning and rumbles of thunder with heavy sleet/hail pouring down. It was hard to tell whether what was falling was sleet or hail because the ice pellets seemed to have a milky white color when I saw them on the sidewalk, and they were quite big to be just regular sleet pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 you really have no business talking....If I had been lucky enough to be under the best WAA precip last night I would have easily had my 7" just like most places did just to my SW. Either way, it doesn't really matter seeing how I had nothing on the line anyway. Earthlight was so certain he was correct he didn't even care to see if I would match his bet. This is the last time I'll mention it tonight. Was a very interesting storm to track from start to finish with lots of unpredicted variables. I didn't like earthlight's certainty that big snows couldn't happen but I also thought 7"-14" was too aggressive and too broad for a two day forecast. You were much luckier than all of the Hudson Valley, CT, and LI. Your area received around .75" liquid, and 6"+ snows were still relatively isolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 It was a good event for late March - I agree - but considering the expectations going into this storm and the amount of QPF the models were spitting out for areas that barely received a third of that, I can see why some would be disappointed. Incidentally I was on Busch Campus at that time as well and it was really amazing. Frequent flashes of lightning and rumbles of thunder with heavy sleet/hail pouring down. It was hard to tell whether what was falling was sleet or hail because the ice pellets seemed to have a milky white color when I saw them on the sidewalk, and they were quite big to be just regular sleet pellets. Yeah, I can definitely see why some people are disappointed. We did very well, however, IMO. I'm content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 I think a big issue was some people claiming that the time of year wasn't important in this set up. The time of year is pretty much always important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 So Central Park finishes this event with a T, correct? We'd better hope something comes of either the potential weekend storm or next week's storm; otherwise Central Park will record its second consecutive snowless March, and it would be its fourth consecutive snowless March if the 3/1-2/09 storm had happened like 2 days earlier. Just...yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 24, 2011 Author Share Posted March 24, 2011 So Central Park finishes this event with a T, correct? We'd better hope something comes of either the potential weekend storm or next week's storm; otherwise Central Park will record its second consecutive snowless March, and it would be its fourth consecutive snowless March if the 3/1-2/09 storm had happened like 2 days earlier. Yeah despite all the excitement lately it's been a terrible March here with 2.25" in the books. Of course we still have the 3/27 and 3/30 events to track, and the airmass does look colder so that's always a plus for late-season snows. Of course the time of year is important but the synoptics of the event usually dictate what you get. I'm one of the people who was in the real screwzone since my 850s and BL did stay pretty good throughout the event. It's not like we're struggling to accumulate tonight at 31.9/31 downtown. QPF for this area was just horrid given the strength of this system and widespread reports of thundersnow and heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Yeah, QPF definitely wasn't the issue here, it was too warm surface and mid-level temps as well as light precip intensity that caused a lot of our QPF to be wasted as rain/sleet/non-accumulating snow. For you temps weren't the issue, your issue was simply lack of QPF. So it was basically a lose-lose situation for everyone except for that narrow band in northern NJ that got nailed by the WAA snows last night. There were definitely warning signs on the models that temps would be a big problem for areas near the coast. These areas really needed a bombing coastal low, since temps were very borderline. This is why I called for only a trace to an inch for NYC, and it looks as if that's working out well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 So Central Park finishes this event with a T, correct? We'd better hope something comes of either the potential weekend storm or next week's storm; otherwise Central Park will record its second consecutive snowless March, and it would be its fourth consecutive snowless March if the 3/1-2/09 storm had happened like 2 days earlier. Just...yikes. I'm guessing they will record .1 or .2, there's actually a thin layer of sneet over everything now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Elevation was pretty much everything with this storm...latitude helped a little bit too. Drove on Route 6 from around Goshen, NY to Bear Mtn and there was a solid 3-5 depending on the elevation. Once I started driving down the Palisades Parkway the 3-5 gave way to a general 1-2 south of 287. As I got on 9w working my way back home, there wasn't even an inch once I lost the elevation of the Palisades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Yeah, I can definitely see why some people are disappointed. We did very well, however, IMO. I'm content. We did very well with the first round. As cool as the thundersleet was, the second round did disappoint as far as snow accums go. I thought we'd at least pick up another couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 24, 2011 Author Share Posted March 24, 2011 Elevation was pretty much everything with this storm...latitude helped a little bit too. Drove on Route 6 from around Goshen, NY to Bear Mtn and there was a solid 3-5 depending on the elevation. Once I started driving down the Palisades Parkway the 3-5 gave way to a general 1-2 south of 287. As I got on 9w working my way back home, there wasn't even an inch once I lost the elevation of the Palisades. It wasn't just elevation though, places farther south along the Palisades Parkway didn't see the type of banding that further north near Bear Mtn did. I think it was just a banding issue. Even Queens was accumulating snow last night and we've basically stayed all snow here. Even over 400' here there's only been an inch total, comparable to many places' elevations you are describing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 It wasn't just elevation though, places farther south along the Palisades Parkway didn't see the type of banding that further north near Bear Mtn did. I think it was just a banding issue. Even Queens was accumulating snow last night and we've basically stayed all snow here. Even over 400' here there's only been an inch total, comparable to many places' elevations you are describing. The snow just picked back up-- but this event is strictly a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Anything that whitens the ground for me in late March is sincerely a win. We ended up with probably a little over 3 inches and it was just gorgeous. Hopefully, next week we can get something similar to today's totals; just a little something to put the winter spirit back into my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 And not to mention, I saw something similar to this today. Robins in the snow! Spring snow is incredible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 It wasn't just elevation though, places farther south along the Palisades Parkway didn't see the type of banding that further north near Bear Mtn did. I think it was just a banding issue. Even Queens was accumulating snow last night and we've basically stayed all snow here. Even over 400' here there's only been an inch total, comparable to many places' elevations you are describing. Route 6 comes close to touching 1000' so it definitely made a big difference compared to the 300-500 cliffs of the Palisades. On the NYS thruway, which is pretty low in elevation, there wasn't much either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 It wasn't just elevation though, places farther south along the Palisades Parkway didn't see the type of banding that further north near Bear Mtn did. I think it was just a banding issue. Even Queens was accumulating snow last night and we've basically stayed all snow here. Even over 400' here there's only been an inch total, comparable to many places' elevations you are describing. Your area is not "comparable" to Rt 6 near Bear Mtn. Long Mtn Pkwy ( Rt.6) averages 1000'.. We were never in the banding but still managed to accumulate simply cause of elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 24, 2011 Author Share Posted March 24, 2011 Your area is not "comparable" to Rt 6 near Bear Mtn. Long Mtn Pkwy ( Rt.6) averages over 1000'.. We were never in the banding but still managed to accumulate simply cause of elevation. Oh I agree your elevation helped some. But the banding was purely on a NW-SE trajectory that clearly favored your area over places directly north of the City. I'd be interested to know how much places at 800'+ in northern Westchester/Putnam saw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Oh I agree your elevation helped some. But the banding was purely on a NW-SE trajectory that clearly favored your area over places directly north of the City. I'd be interested to know how much places at 800'+ in northern Westchester/Putnam saw... How much do you have so far? I had an inch last night and so far half an inch tonight with light snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 24, 2011 Author Share Posted March 24, 2011 How much do you have so far? I had an inch last night and so far half an inch tonight with light snow falling. I had .5" last night and .5" tonight. I've gotten less than .2" QPF so it's understandable. Been mostly flurries here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Your area is not "comparable" to Rt 6 near Bear Mtn. Long Mtn Pkwy ( Rt.6) averages 1000'.. We were never in the banding but still managed to accumulate simply cause of elevation. Yeah. Northern NJ took the brunt of the most intense banding while most of southern NY remained in a broad area of light to moderate snow. The higher elevations definitely cashed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Route 6 comes close to touching 1000' so it definitely made a big difference compared to the 300-500 cliffs of the Palisades. On the NYS thruway, which is pretty low in elevation, there wasn't much either. caldwell nj with 7 inches with little eleavtion while towns like wantage at 1200 ft had 2.5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 24, 2011 Author Share Posted March 24, 2011 Interesting to see the huge track error in the GFS on this system... 6z: Current 0z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Your area is not "comparable" to Rt 6 near Bear Mtn. Long Mtn Pkwy ( Rt.6) averages 1000'.. We were never in the banding but still managed to accumulate simply cause of elevation. either was i and i had 2.5, high temp was 33 today and im only 380 ft. this was not an elevation storm at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 caldwell nj with 7 inches with little eleavtion while towns like wantage at 1200 ft had 2.5 inches Of course banding was a factor, but you needed some kind of elevation to get more than an inch or two. I had .6" of precip which was all snow and didn't even break an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 either was i and i had 2.5, high temp was 33 today and im only 380 ft. this was not an elevation storm at all It was for us here in NY.. We didnt benefit from hvy precip rates or banding that areas in NJ had. Only thing that allowed us to accumulate was elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 - SN still, very nice and calm to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Curiously, Upton issued a winter weather advisory for NYC and it's environs, with up to 1 inch accum. by morning. In addition, am I just imagining things, but it looks like light precip. is trying to develop in se PA with a northeasterly orientation of it towards our area. NYZ072-240830- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)- 1151 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY... ...IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THURSDAY... .OVERNIGHT...OCCASIONAL RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET OR PATCHY DRIZZLE...THEN OCCASIONAL SNOW...SLEET...OR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. ICE ACCUMULATION AROUND A TRACE. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. OCCASIONAL SNOW OR PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. ICE ACCUMULATION AROUND A TRACE. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. .THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN CLEARING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. .FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. .FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. .SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. .SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. .SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN CLEARING. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. .MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 40. .MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. .TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 24, 2011 Author Share Posted March 24, 2011 It's snowing pretty nicely here now at 31.5/31. Definitely accumulating especially in the woods where I walked the dog. I'm up to .75" for this wave after .5" this morning, total snowfall of 1.25" and still going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 The thundersleet and snow today was amazing and I change my tone about this. Wow I have never seen it like this ever before. Picked up a coating sleet with little snow on top of it. Major bust with snow which is good for me. A big bang for winter and good preview for the thunderstorm season. This was just like a regular thunderstorm you would see in the spring and summer with fairly good amount of thunder and lightning which was impressive I have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 I think the problem with the NAM (and RGEM) had less to do with underestimating WAA than with failure to resolve the tendency for convection to remain in the warm sector and thus take most of the oomph out of precip. in the cold sector. 6z NAM had a huge hit for this evening and even the 12z NAM showed way more QPF than we actually got. It seems the models both overestimated the strength of the WAA to lift the banding north into the colder air in SE NY and SW CT, and then some of them made another mistake by showing deformation snows on the NW side of the coastal which have never really gotten going. This was just a non-storm up here, making up for the surprise on 2/21. I can't really complain as the 2" this week boosts my total to 68" seasonal, tying 09-10, something I thought impossible when we started with a strong La Niña. Also thought it was impossible when the pattern looked putrid and zonal in mid-March, and now we've seen two accumulating snowfalls this week and may have another one on our doorstep for the weekend with the possibility of a fierce Nor'easter Tuesday. You win some, you lose some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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