ag3 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 That PA band is definitely expanding and intensifying. HRRR had a very heavy band over NYC around 11pm-2am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 well see, i havent had anything besides light snow all evening even with 30 dbz yeah, should be a sweet band. Just trying to stay on topic with all this win/loss bickering. People are so weird, its just weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 At least JFK got the daily record... ...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT KENNEDY NY...A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 0.8 INCHES WAS SET AT KENNEDY NY TODAY. THISBREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.5 SET IN 2005. This record is likely being added to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 yeah, should be a sweet band. Just trying to stay on topic with all this win/loss bickering. People are so weird, its just weather You are talking to one of the most hardcore weather people in the community.... It's not just weather with us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 I think its best to declare this one a draw, plus locations 15 miles to my west saw well over 6"+ overnight. Had nothing to do with temps or elevation, they just got lucky enough to be under the best banding. I don't think a draw is a reasonable conclusion. Widespread 6"+ storms in spring are rare. Near misses, like this one, are much more common. That's why I'd almost always downplay a moderate or greater accumulating snowfall this time of year in this region until the short term. There were problems with mid-level warmth and lift (overall weakening dynamics) as well as surface temperatures during the day. Several models highlighted these possibilities over the past few days and raised enough doubt to warrant a more conservative approach. As it turned out, the conservative approach was the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Some people in this thread really need a vacation to Kickwood, CA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 lack of snow was not for the reasons that caused the bet. Its my understanding that they felt it would either rain or day or snow all day but not stick. Plus, WAA snow was part of the equation so you cant take that away. Most of NENJ and NYC metro received near or in excess of .75" liquid over 20 hours or so with temperatures slightly above freezing for the duration. However, snowfall accumulations in excess of 3" were not widespread. The problems, as expected, were light intensity (lack of lift/dynamics/saturation), and warm surface temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 I think its best to declare this one a draw, plus locations 15 miles to my west saw well over 6"+ overnight. Had nothing to do with temps or elevation, they just got lucky enough to be under the best banding. How's your 7-14" in your backyard?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 William! Greetings friend, its over. Hard to believe the models were that bad, but its over. In my humble opinion it seems like we have ALL relied too much on model data and not enough on common sense and human intuition as of late..........maybe that will change, what a horrific model bust. .7 of snow here. yay. Hey Joe, good to see you around...just want to allow for everything to clear east of here before declaring Upton's general one inch or less forecast for the City and Island on target...I went for 1 -6 inches for those two areas...need someone to get to 3.5"...time for the Hail Mary pass... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 That PA band is definitely expanding and intensifying. HRRR had a very heavy band over NYC around 11pm-2am. Fuggedaboutit. It's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Fuggedaboutit. It's over. Yeah. Pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Fuggedaboutit. It's over. the weeniesm in this thread is out of control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 How's your 7-14" in your backyard?? LOL, but there are plenty of people with that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 LOL, but there are plenty of people with that much. It was my understanding that the area of those accumulations was pretty small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Fuggedaboutit. It's over. There was a Yankee who said "It ain't over 'till its over". Oh yeah Yogi Berra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 the weeniesm in this thread is out of control. You can say that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Fuggedaboutit. It's over. <Realizes he will need to call on his power over the elements> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 24, 2011 Author Share Posted March 24, 2011 You can say that again. You can't blame people for disappointment when a widespread model consensus showed .75" QPF and we ended up with like 1/3 of that at most. Where is all the precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 It was my understanding that the area of those accumulations was pretty small. wasnt that small, parts warren,sussex,morris and essex counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 You can't blame people for disappointment when a widespread model consensus showed .75" QPF and we ended up with like 1/3 of that at most. Where is all the precip? A) The models were all over the place It's Spring, so a betting man this time of year bets on a bust. Yes there have been widespread snows here this time of year and no it isn't RARE, but this late in the game everything has to basically go perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 wasnt that small, parts warren,sussex,morris and essex counties Small enough; it wasn't widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 It was my understanding that the area of those accumulations was pretty small. you really have no business talking....If I had been lucky enough to be under the best WAA precip last night I would have easily had my 7" just like most places did just to my SW. Either way, it doesn't really matter seeing how I had nothing on the line anyway. Earthlight was so certain he was correct he didn't even care to see if I would match his bet. This is the last time I'll mention it tonight. Was a very interesting storm to track from start to finish with lots of unpredicted variables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Fuggedaboutit. It's over. that band is just one county wide.... meanwhile the band over the city and long island has mostly dried up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 you really have no business talking....If I had been lucky enough to be under the best WAA precip last night I would have easily had my 7" just like most places did just to my SW. Either way, it doesn't really matter seeing how I had nothing on the line anyway. Earthlight was so certain he was correct he didn't even care to see if I would match his bet. This is the last time I'll mention it tonight. Was a very interesting storm to track from start to finish with lots of unpredicted variables. So you were wrong; that's cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 So you were wrong; that's cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Well I mean, we didn't even have a -NAO in place for this event, there's no western ridge, in fact the upper pattern is pretty poor overall, on top of the fact that it's late march. So my expectations were extremely low with this storm even when some models showed us getting hammered. Gradient / overunning systems usually disappoint most in mid winter nevermind early spring. I have more faith that the pattern will produce for us mid next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 24, 2011 Author Share Posted March 24, 2011 A) The models were all over the place It's Spring, so a betting man this time of year bets on a bust. Yes there have been widespread snows here this time of year and no it isn't RARE, but this late in the game everything has to basically go perfectly. The usual problem in spring is the temps though, and that clearly wasn't the issue in this storm with Blairstown NJ getting like 6" and the South Shore of LI seeing up to 2" in the banding last night. I'm at 31.9F, I'd be getting dumped on with snow if the models had had any grasp of how this storm was going to go. It was snowing all day here in Westchester but never got above 5SM snow grains. Let's hope we get some from the band in PA and then have a nice finale with the Nor'easter for either Sunday or Tuesday being hinted at by the GFS and ECM. We'll have less of a marginal airmass with 850s declining to -12C, and a coastal storm with CCB precipitation would be a much surer bet at this point than banded overrrunning snows that usually screw everyone outside a small area. I guess it was basically the same thing with the 2/21 storm where Westchester got 7-8" with the City coming in at 3" despite cold temperatures...the banding is often narrow but intense in these events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Well, it looks like we're probably about finished. Total precip here in New Brunswick from this storm was 0.78''. Definitely a decent amount, but as has already been stated, the warm temperatures at the surface and aloft, as well as a lack of a real organized heavy precip shield, caused a lot of the QPF to be wasted, and thus our hopes for a widespread moderate snowstorm were dashed. For places further north like SE NY and SW CT, their problem wasn't as much temps as it was lack of QPF. So it was basically a lose-lose situation for everyone except for that narrow band in northern NJ that got nailed by the WAA snows last night. Oh well, the WAA snows last night were nice and exceeded my expectations (especially for the places in northern NJ that got 8-10 inches), and the thundersleet/snow we had earlier was really cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 If a CCB forms with the next event, snow will have no problem sticking everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Well I mean, we didn't even have a -NAO in place for this event, there's no western ridge, in fact the upper pattern is pretty poor overall, on top of the fact that it's late march. So my expectations were extremely low with this storm even when some models showed us getting hammered. Gradient / overunning systems usually disappoint most in mid winter nevermind early spring. I have more faith that the pattern will produce for us mid next week. The power of timing, Tom can do wonders. Like February 1983 blizzard and January 26-27th snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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