CooL Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 well the gfs finally nailed it (6hrs before the actually onset)...South and less precip, another awful display by the models. You really can't blame anyone for being wrong with this storm..Tornadoes, thunder, sleet, snow, hail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 This event was very, very difficult to forecast. Large model spread even right up to now. I don't think Upton or Mt. Holly did a poor job with this one. The snow was definitly there but it looks like I will be falling short of 7" unless something major happens. When I got home I found out that the 2-3" that fell overnight had melted so its impossible to figure out what the final outcome would have been. Fun storm to track though. Edit - Areas within my own county saw 7" + so I don't think you can say either one of us won Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duality Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 we actually got a couple of scrapings in and salted some walks and parking lots. Marginal events like this can be easy money. and scrape you did,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Great, great job by upton. Stellar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Great, great job by upton. Stellar. Joe, I mean Litchfield, You have said that 100 times already. We know. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeInNJ Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Is this really over? News12 was saying 10am on the 6pm newscast, and I thought this was supposed to go to at least 2-3am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Great, great job by upton. Stellar. I think we've made our point no need to go overboard now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Is this really over? News12 was saying 10am on the 6pm newscast, and I thought this was supposed to go to at least 2-3am? I think some snow/mix tries to hang back over NYC/LI and south for a while as the coastal low gets going, but north of there it's hard to see much more happening. The focus clearly seems to be south of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Saw lightning on the L.I.E. and the snow picked up rather markedly on intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Joe, I mean Litchfield, You have said that 100 times already. We know. Thanks. My name is Joe, you can say it. And I said it 4 times. And all 4 times deserve it after the filth that was spewed towards our own NWS site. Is that ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 My name is Joe, you can say it. And I said it 4 times. And all 4 times deserve it after the filth that was spewed towards our own NWS site. Is that ok? But u made your point. This is an observation thread Joe. Let it go already. Go argue with Nate somewhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 just light rain/sleet/snow mixture here now in Morganville, NJ Monmouth county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 whats with those returns in the south? on the national nws radar,look weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 So, Nate, the fat lady seems to be warming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 There is another band forming in easternPA/WesternNJ. Let's see if that can grow a bit as it heads east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 24, 2011 Author Share Posted March 24, 2011 My name is Joe, you can say it. And I said it 4 times. And all 4 times deserve it after the filth that was spewed towards our own NWS site. Is that ok? Joe, all the forecasts were off for this storm, including the NWS. They have advisories/warnings to the north where they won't see much at all. They didn't expect accumulations at JFK/LI when they got them. No one pinpointed the band that nailed NE NJ. Instead of trying to single me out for busting, how about just admitting that our models let us down? I busted and so did most everyone...how can you not when the GFS/ECM/NAM are all showing .75" QPF and you get .1"? Even the excellent ECM was too far north with the storm. Upton has made a lot of mistakes in my area this winter including Boxing Day (first calling for flurries, then forecasting double what fell in Westchester) and Monday's storm (forecasting all rain when it was classic front-end snow dump). They have also had some excellent forecast discussions, so there is clearly some talent on the staff. The problem is really that our models suck; all of them let us down for 12/26 and all of them let us down today. We have a long ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 this is a weird storm...I had over an inch of wet snow before daybreak...rain/sleet/snow in all combination's...I even had thunder and lightning...wet snow now with a slushy coating and the temp has dropped to 33... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 To be honest, I think I won the bet for the wrong reasons. I anticipated the lack of significant accumulations to be mainly due to warm boundary layer temps, not lack of precip, so I definitely agree with Nate there. Modelling did terribly at predicting this event, and in reality, surface temperatures are cold enough to support accumulating snow if mod-hvy pcpn moved overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 this is a weird storm...I had over an inch of wet snow before daybreak...rain/sleet/snow in all combination's...I even had thunder and lightning...wet snow now with a slushy coating and the temp has dropped to 33... It feels like a slightly milder and less intense version of Jan 26-27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Joe, all the forecasts were off for this storm, including the NWS. They have advisories/warnings to the north where they won't see much at all. They didn't expect accumulations at JFK/LI when they got them. No one pinpointed the band that nailed NE NJ. Instead of trying to single me out for busting, how about just admitting that our models let us down? I busted and so did most everyone...how can you not when the GFS/ECM/NAM are all showing .75" QPF and you get .1"? Even the excellent ECM was too far north with the storm. Upton has made a lot of mistakes in my area this winter including Boxing Day (first calling for flurries, then forecasting double what fell in Westchester) and Monday's storm (forecasting all rain when it was classic front-end snow dump). They have also had some excellent forecast discussions, so there is clearly some talent on the staff. The problem is really that our models suck; all of them let us down for 12/26 and all of them let us down today. We have a long ways to go. Yeah, everyone was too extreme-- in both directions. The ground "truth" was somewhere in between-- with some areas getting much more than expected, and others less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 To be honest, I think I won the bet for the wrong reasons. I anticipated the lack of significant accumulations to be mainly due to warm boundary layer temps, not lack of precip, so I definitely agree with Nate there. Modelling did terribly at predicting this event, and in reality, surface temperatures are cold enough to support accumulating snow if mod-hvy pcpn moved overhead. I think its best to declare this one a draw, plus locations 15 miles to my west saw well over 6"+ overnight. Had nothing to do with temps or elevation, they just got lucky enough to be under the best banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 I think its best to declear this one a draw, plus locations 15 miles to my west saw well over 6"+ overnight. Had nothing to do with temps or elevation, they just got lucky enough to be under the best banding. A draw? Besides the waa snows over nj, this was nothing. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 That band in eastern PA continues to expand. Let's wait until storm is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 To be honest, I think I won the bet for the wrong reasons. I anticipated the lack of significant accumulations to be mainly due to warm boundary layer temps, not lack of precip, so I definitely agree with Nate there. Modelling did terribly at predicting this event, and in reality, surface temperatures are cold enough to support accumulating snow if mod-hvy pcpn moved overhead. How about we wait for out #27... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Band in NE PA continues to intensify, should bring another 30 mins of moderate/heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 How about we wait for out #27... William! Greetings friend, its over. Hard to believe the models were that bad, but its over. In my humble opinion it seems like we have ALL relied too much on model data and not enough on common sense and human intuition as of late..........maybe that will change, what a horrific model bust. .7 of snow here. yay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 At least JFK got the daily record... ...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT KENNEDY NY...A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 0.8 INCHES WAS SET AT KENNEDY NY TODAY. THISBREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.5 SET IN 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 A draw? Besides the waa snows over nj, this was nothing. Sorry. lack of snow was not for the reasons that caused the bet. Its my understanding that they felt it would either rain or day or snow all day but not stick. Plus, WAA snow was part of the equation so you cant take that away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Band in NE PA continues to intensify, should bring another 30 mins of moderate/heavy snow. well see, i havent had anything besides light snow all evening even with 30 dbz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 How about we wait for out #27... I think it's over William, we've got that last band in PA which may add on another coating to 0.5" at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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