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March 22-23 OBS/Disco


nzucker

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Yes I realize that but they weren't expecting accumulations for areas like the South Shore where 2" fell, and Mt. Holly was also short on their map in NJ where Blairstown had 5" and farther north got pummeled. I didn't see the immediate suburbs expected to get 5" with 10" up in the northern hills. Also, they were calling for mostly a rain event here during the day when everything that fell was basically snow.

It's not really that the precipitation was lacking because a lot of areas did get their expected QPF, just not here. They had the reverse scenario with the northern areas like Middletown and Northern Westchester getting a ton of snow and my area getting almost nothing, clearly a forecast based on temps, but the cut-off in precip was just farther south than imagined. I don't think Northern Westchester has gotten more than here, probably less.

These WAA bands can be intense but thin...they always seem to be underforecast. I remember this happened in the 1/27 storm where we weren't supposed to get anything in the morning until the deformation axis came through, and then we ended up with 4" in the AM hours. I can't fault the NWS too much on this storm as basically everyone has busted for different reasons...this event has been all over the place with model mayhem, heavy thunderstorm, virga for areas expected to get snow, etc.

you owe okx an apology, you busted really, really bad

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So what your saying is that it didnt rain in Dobbs Ferry today? I was on the Saw Mill passing through Ardsley and I can assure you it was raining. I noticed the transition from frozen to liquid around Suffern.

I had very little rain here...there was about .5" of snow accumulation overnight and then the precip was very light with just an occasional flurry or mix during the day. It started back up as snow/sleet mix tonight and has flipped to snow quickly, but it's just light intensity..roads have a light coating in my neighborhood.

The problem with this storm has been that we're on the edge of all the banding. It is 32/32 here, could stick easily. But it just seems like the northern suburbs are getting screwed in favor of Central-Northern NJ. I can't really complain though with near 70" this season.

Ironically, Upton's call for 2.5" here tonight might bust. I thought they'd bust low but they might bust high with the crappy radar signature.

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. Also, they were calling for mostly a rain event here during the day when everything that fell was basically snow.

Really? From 4pm yesterday:

ISSUE IS HOW MUCH OF BOTH. PORTIONS OF THE LOWERHUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR CT MAY STAY ALL SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT

You are nitpicking a few meso bands from around the region to pick on them... the overall nature of the storm as being light and disorganized has been correct. It was a difficult forecast.

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Yeah what a crazy day of weather. I will not forget this....all types of preciep.......with thunder and lightning thrown in......welcome back to winter....:snowman:

Indeed.

Tonight was nuts, Timmy. Ihunder sleet while coming come from school and the roads were quite slick.

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I had very little rain here...there was about .5" of snow accumulation overnight and then the precip was very light with just an occasional flurry or mix during the day. It started back up as snow/sleet mix tonight and has flipped to snow quickly, but it's just light intensity..roads have a light coating in my neighborhood.

The problem with this storm has been that we're on the edge of all the banding. It is 32/32 here, could stick easily. But it just seems like the northern suburbs are getting screwed in favor of Central-Northern NJ. I can't really complain though with near 70" this season.

Ironically, Upton's call for 2.5" here tonight might bust. I thought they'd bust low but they might bust high with the crappy radar signature.

Is there any sign of a pivot or coastal taking over on radar? I think all that convection earlier in PA robbed us of all the moisture.

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you owe okx an apology, you busted really, really bad

I would say we both are going to end up busting badly, but the storm is not over yet Snowman.gif

I actually think my argument that the storm was cold enough for our area was good. All of the low forecasts were based on temps. But it's not a temp problem at all. The GFS with its warm/north track was wrong as I suspected.

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<br />Good-- I hope that back end stalls and we all get buried under a deformation band as the coastal develops <img src='http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':P' />  Seeing that back end race east just after you've changed over to all snow is the worst possible feeling lol.<br /><br /><br /><br />
<br /><br /><br />

AJ Burnett has a better chance of winning 25 games this year than that back end stalling.LOL!!

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I would say we both are going to end up busting badly, but the storm is not over yet Snowman.gif

I actually think my argument that the storm was cold enough for our area was good. All of the low forecasts were based on temps. But it's not a temp problem at all. The GFS with its warm/north track was wrong as I suspected.

dude the storm is over for us, and you called out upton, it was a disgrace what you said about them, there forecast was spot on for you and i let it go, and salvage something Nate, you are a good guy. let it go.

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dude the storm is over for us, and you called out upton, it was a disgrace what you said about them, there forecast was spot on for you and i let it go, and salvage something Nate, you are a good guy. let it go.

Forecast wasn't really spot on...they have like 2.5" snow accumulation here tonight, and where is that going to come from? We are under 0dbz right now.

They also didn't have any accumulation for South Shore LI/JFK area which did see like 2" last night...even warm JFK measuring on the roof got .7". No one imagined NJ would get 5-10"...

As much as I was wrong, so was the NWS. The storm just screwed with all the models and forecasts terribly. Most models had me getting like .75" QPF and I bet I haven't even seen .2" QPF. What's really a disgrace is how bad the computer models are at a 24-hour lead time, just terrible. Makes it hard to forecast when you are working with these models.

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