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March 22-23 OBS/Disco


nzucker

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Not really an epic win, they busted huge in Central-Northern NJ where people got like 8" last night.

Also, the idea of temperatures keeping accumulations down has been patently false in Westchester. It's been all snow all day with some sleet mixing in, BL has basically been fine oscillating btwn 32-34. Upton may be right for the right reasons.

Upton was right with the mid levels drying out. This was evident yesterday. When you have disorganized pockets of high RH and forcing..it probably won't gel to our likings. Sure the convection came through, but after this, I'm not sure will see much. Maybe as the low develops we'll get some moisture thrown back, but we better see the echoes develop quick.

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Too bad Morris & Warren counties arent in their FA.. Upton did a pretty good job. If anything they were too heavy on the snow for us up here.. Ill be lucky to hit 5"

They went too light for southern areas like the South Shore of LI where people had like 2" and too heavy for northern areas. Storm is way south of where everyone expected, I think.

In any case it is too early to say "bust" or "epic win"...let's see what happens tonight as the coastal develops.

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Upton was right with the mid levels drying out. This was evident yesterday. When you have disorganized pockets of high RH and forcing..it probably won't gel to our likings. Sure the convection came through, but after this, I'm not sure will see much. Maybe as the low develops we'll get some moisture thrown back, but we better see the echoes develop quick.

I remember you mentioned this possibility even before Upton did yesterday.

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Guest Pamela

They went too light for southern areas like the South Shore of LI where people had like 2" and too heavy for northern areas. Storm is way south of where everyone expected, I think.

In any case it is too early to say "bust" or "epic win"...let's see what happens tonight as the coastal develops.

Correct.

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Wow, it's crazy out there. A short while ago we had frequent lightning and thunder with heavy sleet falling (some of the ice pellets were huge and milky white so there might have been some small hail mixed in also; not really sure), and now it seems to have transitioned over to mainly heavy snow.

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Upton was right with the mid levels drying out. This was evident yesterday. When you have disorganized pockets of high RH and forcing..it probably won't gel to our likings. Sure the convection came through, but after this, I'm not sure will see much. Maybe as the low develops we'll get some moisture thrown back, but we better see the echoes develop quick.

The WAA snows weren't lacking in dynamics for the areas that got them though...some people in NNJ measured like 8-10". There was a nice band of 30-35dbz over those areas last night and eventually it impacted the South Shore of LI where 2" piled up despite no accumulations expected.

Upton also called for a lot of mixing/rain here and it's been almost all frozen. Haven't seen a raindrop today. Problem is I also haven't seen any precip today. gun_bandana.gif

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Not really an epic win, they busted huge in Central-Northern NJ where people got like 8" last night.

Also, the idea of temperatures keeping accumulations down has been patently false in Westchester. It's been all snow all day with some sleet mixing in, BL has basically been fine oscillating btwn 32-34. Upton may be right for the right reasons.

Yeah how's it sticking at 33F? Did you read what I posted.. their issue was with mid-level drying and lack of precip which is exactly what has happened. You just said yourself the issue was lack of precip.. which if you read their forecast is exactly what they forecasted. Long duration light event that doesn't stick well at 33F.

central and northern NJ isn't part of the upton forecast area.

Did they nail it? No. It was a tough forecast. But the general idea of mid-level drying and poor precip has been correct. That and the bad ratios/difficulty to accumulate at 33-34F.

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The WAA snows weren't lacking in dynamics for the areas that got them though...some people in NNJ measured like 8-10". There was a nice band of 30-35dbz over those areas last night and eventually it impacted the South Shore of LI where 2" piled up despite no accumulations expected.

Upton also called for a lot of mixing/rain here and it's been almost all frozen. Haven't seen a raindrop today. Problem is I also haven't seen any precip today. gun_bandana.gif

Leading edge WAA snows can be surprising. I can't fault someone for a renegade mesoscale band that dumped 8"+. I honestly didn't look too hard at what was going to transpire down there during last night, but there were signs of the leading edge WAA snows. I don't think anyone could have predicted those snows well in advance, however.

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Not really an epic win, they busted huge in Central-Northern NJ where people got like 8" last night.

Also, the idea of temperatures keeping accumulations down has been patently false in Westchester. It's been all snow all day with some sleet mixing in, BL has basically been fine oscillating btwn 32-34. Upton may be right for the right reasons.

where in Central Jersey did they get 8 inches...more like 2 inches

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Yeah how's it sticking at 33F? Did you read what I posted.. their issue was with mid-level drying and lack of precip which is exactly what has happened. Long duration light event that doesn't stick well at 33F.

central and northern NJ isn't part of the upton forecast area.

Yes I realize that but they weren't expecting accumulations for areas like the South Shore where 2" fell, and Mt. Holly was also short on their map in NJ where Blairstown had 5" and farther north got pummeled. I didn't see the immediate suburbs expected to get 5" with 10" up in the northern hills. Also, they were calling for mostly a rain event here during the day when everything that fell was basically snow.

It's not really that the precipitation was lacking because a lot of areas did get their expected QPF, just not here. They had the reverse scenario with the northern areas like Middletown and Northern Westchester getting a ton of snow and my area getting almost nothing, clearly a forecast based on temps, but the cut-off in precip was just farther south than imagined. I don't think Northern Westchester has gotten more than here, probably less.

Leading edge WAA snows can be surprising. I can't fault someone for a renegade mesoscale band that dumped 8"+. I honestly didn't look too hard at what was going to transpire down there during last night, but there were signs of the leading edge WAA snows. I don't think anyone could have predicted those snows well in advance, however.

These WAA bands can be intense but thin...they always seem to be underforecast. I remember this happened in the 1/27 storm where we weren't supposed to get anything in the morning until the deformation axis came through, and then we ended up with 4" in the AM hours. I can't fault the NWS too much on this storm as basically everyone has busted for different reasons...this event has been all over the place with model mayhem, heavy thunderstorm, virga for areas expected to get snow, etc.

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The WAA snows weren't lacking in dynamics for the areas that got them though...some people in NNJ measured like 8-10". There was a nice band of 30-35dbz over those areas last night and eventually it impacted the South Shore of LI where 2" piled up despite no accumulations expected.

Upton also called for a lot of mixing/rain here and it's been almost all frozen. Haven't seen a raindrop today. Problem is I also haven't seen any precip today. gun_bandana.gif

So what your saying is that it didnt rain in Dobbs Ferry today? I was on the Saw Mill passing through Ardsley and I can assure you it was raining. I noticed the transition from frozen to liquid around Suffern.

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