JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 just big wet snowflakes here now. no rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Not really an epic win, they busted huge in Central-Northern NJ where people got like 8" last night. Also, the idea of temperatures keeping accumulations down has been patently false in Westchester. It's been all snow all day with some sleet mixing in, BL has basically been fine oscillating btwn 32-34. Upton may be right for the right reasons. Upton was right with the mid levels drying out. This was evident yesterday. When you have disorganized pockets of high RH and forcing..it probably won't gel to our likings. Sure the convection came through, but after this, I'm not sure will see much. Maybe as the low develops we'll get some moisture thrown back, but we better see the echoes develop quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx.1028 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 changed to all snow now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 24, 2011 Author Share Posted March 24, 2011 Too bad Morris & Warren counties arent in their FA.. Upton did a pretty good job. If anything they were too heavy on the snow for us up here.. Ill be lucky to hit 5" They went too light for southern areas like the South Shore of LI where people had like 2" and too heavy for northern areas. Storm is way south of where everyone expected, I think. In any case it is too early to say "bust" or "epic win"...let's see what happens tonight as the coastal develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Upton was right with the mid levels drying out. This was evident yesterday. When you have disorganized pockets of high RH and forcing..it probably won't gel to our likings. Sure the convection came through, but after this, I'm not sure will see much. Maybe as the low develops we'll get some moisture thrown back, but we better see the echoes develop quick. I remember you mentioned this possibility even before Upton did yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 They went too light for southern areas like the South Shore of LI where people had like 2" and too heavy for northern areas. Storm is way south of where everyone expected, I think. In any case it is too early to say "bust" or "epic win"...let's see what happens tonight as the coastal develops. Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 I doubt that. Precip is way back in mid PA and also coastal will take over soon and that might also throw some precip back. We shall see. HRRR and ruc have precip past midnight. look at the radar, its going to be over, things are crashing south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Wow, it's crazy out there. A short while ago we had frequent lightning and thunder with heavy sleet falling (some of the ice pellets were huge and milky white so there might have been some small hail mixed in also; not really sure), and now it seems to have transitioned over to mainly heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 24, 2011 Author Share Posted March 24, 2011 Upton was right with the mid levels drying out. This was evident yesterday. When you have disorganized pockets of high RH and forcing..it probably won't gel to our likings. Sure the convection came through, but after this, I'm not sure will see much. Maybe as the low develops we'll get some moisture thrown back, but we better see the echoes develop quick. The WAA snows weren't lacking in dynamics for the areas that got them though...some people in NNJ measured like 8-10". There was a nice band of 30-35dbz over those areas last night and eventually it impacted the South Shore of LI where 2" piled up despite no accumulations expected. Upton also called for a lot of mixing/rain here and it's been almost all frozen. Haven't seen a raindrop today. Problem is I also haven't seen any precip today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Precip back near central PA, near Harrisburg for instance, starting to fill in and move more NE. Will be interesting too see how this unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 look at the radar, its going to be over, things are crashing south and east Yeah. Not looking too hot right now. Let's see if coastal can throw back some Precip as coastal stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Mix of everything here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Not really an epic win, they busted huge in Central-Northern NJ where people got like 8" last night. Also, the idea of temperatures keeping accumulations down has been patently false in Westchester. It's been all snow all day with some sleet mixing in, BL has basically been fine oscillating btwn 32-34. Upton may be right for the right reasons. Yeah how's it sticking at 33F? Did you read what I posted.. their issue was with mid-level drying and lack of precip which is exactly what has happened. You just said yourself the issue was lack of precip.. which if you read their forecast is exactly what they forecasted. Long duration light event that doesn't stick well at 33F. central and northern NJ isn't part of the upton forecast area. Did they nail it? No. It was a tough forecast. But the general idea of mid-level drying and poor precip has been correct. That and the bad ratios/difficulty to accumulate at 33-34F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 The WAA snows weren't lacking in dynamics for the areas that got them though...some people in NNJ measured like 8-10". There was a nice band of 30-35dbz over those areas last night and eventually it impacted the South Shore of LI where 2" piled up despite no accumulations expected. Upton also called for a lot of mixing/rain here and it's been almost all frozen. Haven't seen a raindrop today. Problem is I also haven't seen any precip today. Leading edge WAA snows can be surprising. I can't fault someone for a renegade mesoscale band that dumped 8"+. I honestly didn't look too hard at what was going to transpire down there during last night, but there were signs of the leading edge WAA snows. I don't think anyone could have predicted those snows well in advance, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 central and northern NJ isn't part of the upton forecast area. Northeast NJ is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 This is an observation thread. Please keep the Upton busting or not in another thread. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 the models that had little precip after 8pm are going to be right for most except off by one hour-maybe they are still on standard time--this one's ending fast for most folks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Strictly rain with some thunder and lightning here and there in SE Queens. The last little storm left what I like to call frost on the cars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Not really an epic win, they busted huge in Central-Northern NJ where people got like 8" last night. Also, the idea of temperatures keeping accumulations down has been patently false in Westchester. It's been all snow all day with some sleet mixing in, BL has basically been fine oscillating btwn 32-34. Upton may be right for the right reasons. where in Central Jersey did they get 8 inches...more like 2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Looks like it's changed over to 90% snow/10% sleet. Crazy day. I love weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 dont care what all you debbie downers say...the sleet/snow/thunder was awesome. snowing good now in nassau county. enjoy folks. last snow until december. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Looks like it's changed over to 90% snow/10% sleet. Crazy day. I love weather. Yeah what a crazy day of weather. I will not forget this....all types of preciep.......with thunder and lightning thrown in......welcome back to winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParsippanyWX Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 where in Central Jersey did they get 8 inches...more like 2 inches <b>No Where</b> in Central jersey. We had 8" here (8.3" to be exact) here close to me in Rockaway, NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Cool to see LGA report thundersnow in their latest observation. Cool storm depite not having big accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 24, 2011 Author Share Posted March 24, 2011 Yeah how's it sticking at 33F? Did you read what I posted.. their issue was with mid-level drying and lack of precip which is exactly what has happened. Long duration light event that doesn't stick well at 33F. central and northern NJ isn't part of the upton forecast area. Yes I realize that but they weren't expecting accumulations for areas like the South Shore where 2" fell, and Mt. Holly was also short on their map in NJ where Blairstown had 5" and farther north got pummeled. I didn't see the immediate suburbs expected to get 5" with 10" up in the northern hills. Also, they were calling for mostly a rain event here during the day when everything that fell was basically snow. It's not really that the precipitation was lacking because a lot of areas did get their expected QPF, just not here. They had the reverse scenario with the northern areas like Middletown and Northern Westchester getting a ton of snow and my area getting almost nothing, clearly a forecast based on temps, but the cut-off in precip was just farther south than imagined. I don't think Northern Westchester has gotten more than here, probably less. Leading edge WAA snows can be surprising. I can't fault someone for a renegade mesoscale band that dumped 8"+. I honestly didn't look too hard at what was going to transpire down there during last night, but there were signs of the leading edge WAA snows. I don't think anyone could have predicted those snows well in advance, however. These WAA bands can be intense but thin...they always seem to be underforecast. I remember this happened in the 1/27 storm where we weren't supposed to get anything in the morning until the deformation axis came through, and then we ended up with 4" in the AM hours. I can't fault the NWS too much on this storm as basically everyone has busted for different reasons...this event has been all over the place with model mayhem, heavy thunderstorm, virga for areas expected to get snow, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 The WAA snows weren't lacking in dynamics for the areas that got them though...some people in NNJ measured like 8-10". There was a nice band of 30-35dbz over those areas last night and eventually it impacted the South Shore of LI where 2" piled up despite no accumulations expected. Upton also called for a lot of mixing/rain here and it's been almost all frozen. Haven't seen a raindrop today. Problem is I also haven't seen any precip today. So what your saying is that it didnt rain in Dobbs Ferry today? I was on the Saw Mill passing through Ardsley and I can assure you it was raining. I noticed the transition from frozen to liquid around Suffern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Its ALL SNOW now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Snow and sleet in Long Beach. We had several rumbles of thunder earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Its ALL SNOW now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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