Saturn510 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Thunder Snow and Sleet in North Brunswick NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 in a La Nina? sorry to burst your bubble but with the NAO going back positive and the La Niña weakening, spring weather is right around the corner. Enjoy this while it lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 some of the precip around the DC area is starting to move in more of a NE motion instead of east per the Dover Air Force Base radar. I would expect our radar to continue to fill in based on the RUC. Yeah. Ruc and hrrr show heaviest precip around 10pm and lasting past midnight, with a more NNE movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 <br />sorry to burst your bubble but with the NAO going back positive and the La Niña weakening, spring weather is right around the corner. Enjoy this while it lasts.<br /><br /><br /><br />Last year we nearly had the warmest MARCH on record and we had 92 degrees on APRIL 7th.I am enjoying this now whatever we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Switched to snow now in Astoria with thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 all snow now 10 miles west of NYC, poor snow structure tho, not sure how fast this will accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 sorry to burst your bubble but with the NAO going back positive and the La Niña weakening, spring weather is right around the corner. Enjoy this while it lasts. I know that, but spring will be pretty weak compared to last year, I wouldn't be surprised if April goes below normal temp wise due to Nina climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Yeah. Ruc and hrrr show heaviest precip around 10pm and lasting past midnight, with a more NNE movement. 100% Moderate to Heavy snow now, with a new coating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 sorry to burst your bubble but with the NAO going back positive and the La Niña weakening, spring weather is right around the corner. Enjoy this while it lasts. this pattern that set in won't break as easy as you may think... you will have to wait for spring for a few weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Sleet and snow now. 33 - dusting on everything except blacktop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Thundersnow and Thundersleet here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Upton pretty much nailed it in their 4pm AFD yesterday... drying in the mid-levels and BL issues make this a minor event for most. They were a little too far north with the precip and the warmth (this forecast was made before the south trend on a lot of the models that occurred at 18z and overnight yesterday). But the overall conservative nature of the forecast due to concerns over mid-level drying leading to poor snow growth and BL issues pretty much everywhere. A long duration light event with little accumulation. Epic win for Upton, and I say this as someone that thought they were a little too conservative (I was thinking 2-4 for most). 4pm Tuesday: ONE CONCERN IN REGARDS TO BUFKITSOUNDINGS...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS NOT OPTIMAL IN THE SNOWGROWTH REGION TO LEAD TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWS...AS DRY MID-LEVELAIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. ONE THING FOR SURE IS THAT THERE WON`T BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPERFORCING TO COUPLE WITH THE PROGGED LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.THE MAIN 500 MB TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX WILL BEPOSITIVELY TILTED AND SLOWLY GETTING ABSORBED BY THE VORTEX. H3-5 FVECTOR CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL. SO FORCING WILL BE PROVIDEDBY WARM AIR ADVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND MODELS AREHINTING AT SOME LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WEDNESDAY TO ENHANCE SNOW ORRAIN RATES. CURRENT MODEL DISCREPANCIES ARE MAKING IT TOODIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE AND WHEN THIS BANDING WILL DEVELOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Thundersleet/thundersnow here now. Wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Some of us are wishcasting now, its move east, take what you have and be thankful, its almost April and everything is white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 rain and snow mix right now here in morganville, nj monmouth county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 is the precipitation expected to fill in? -- back edge seems to be approaching quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Radar is ugly for those who got big snows this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 24, 2011 Author Share Posted March 24, 2011 Upton pretty much nailed it in their 4pm AFD yesterday... drying in the mid-levels and BL issues make this a minor event for most. They were a little too far north with the precip and the warmth (this forecast was made before the south trend on a lot of the models that occurred at 18z and overnight yesterday). But the overall conservative nature of the forecast due to concerns over mid-level drying leading to poor snow growth and BL issues pretty much everywhere. A long duration light event with little accumulation. Epic win for Upton, and I say this as someone that thought they were a little too conservative. 4pm Tuesday: ONE CONCERN IN REGARDS TO BUFKITSOUNDINGS...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS NOT OPTIMAL IN THE SNOWGROWTH REGION TO LEAD TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWS...AS DRY MID-LEVELAIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.ONE THING FOR SURE IS THAT THERE WON`T BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPERFORCING TO COUPLE WITH THE PROGGED LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.THE MAIN 500 MB TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX WILL BEPOSITIVELY TILTED AND SLOWLY GETTING ABSORBED BY THE VORTEX. H3-5 FVECTOR CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL. SO FORCING WILL BE PROVIDEDBY WARM AIR ADVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND MODELS AREHINTING AT SOME LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WEDNESDAY TO ENHANCE SNOW ORRAIN RATES. CURRENT MODEL DISCREPANCIES ARE MAKING IT TOODIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE AND WHEN THIS BANDING WILL DEVELOP. Not really an epic win, they busted huge in Central-Northern NJ where people got like 8" last night. Also, the idea of temperatures keeping accumulations down has been patently false in Westchester. It's been all snow all day with some sleet mixing in, BL has basically been fine oscillating btwn 32-34. Upton may be right for the right reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 That nice warm tongue at 750 provided the elevated Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Radar is ugly for those who got big snows this AM everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 thunder sleet and snow...awsome... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.I.Pete Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Light to moderate snow in Port Jeff Station...ground coated. One flash of lightning about ten minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Thundersnow and Thundersleet here! Same here! This is uncanny-- thundersleet happened right around this same time on Jan 26! And we all know what happened afterwards! There's been three bright flashes of lightning and loud booms of thunder in the last 15 min or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx.1028 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Wow 43 dbz blossoming over middlesex county right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Not really an epic win, they busted huge in Central-Northern NJ where people got like 8" last night. Also, the idea of temperatures keeping accumulations down has been patently false in Westchester. It's been all snow all day with some sleet mixing in, BL has basically been fine oscillating btwn 32-34. Upton may be right for the right reasons. Too bad Morris & Warren counties arent in their FA.. Upton did a pretty good job. If anything they were too heavy on the snow for us up here.. Ill be lucky to hit 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 thundersnow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 WWA for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Yeah, radar not looking too hot right now. Precip is breaking up and racing east fast. Either way, It's been a fun day with thundersleet, hail and now some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Back edge sinking S and E off the CT coast-nice little dusting here...Upton's 3 inches for BDR won't verify though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 the radar weenies are out!! its late march, enjoy your possible last contact with snow for months and shuddup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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