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March 22-23 OBS/Disco


nzucker

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some of the precip around the DC area is starting to move in more of a NE motion instead of east per the Dover Air Force Base radar. I would expect our radar to continue to fill in based on the RUC.

Yeah. Ruc and hrrr show heaviest precip around 10pm and lasting past midnight, with a more NNE movement.

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<br />sorry to burst your bubble but with the NAO going back positive and the La Niña weakening, spring weather is right around the corner.  Enjoy this while it lasts.<br />
<br /><br /><br />

Last year we nearly had the warmest MARCH on record and we had 92 degrees on APRIL 7th.I am enjoying this now whatever we get.

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sorry to burst your bubble but with the NAO going back positive and the La Niña weakening, spring weather is right around the corner. Enjoy this while it lasts.

I know that, but spring will be pretty weak compared to last year, I wouldn't be surprised if April goes below normal temp wise due to Nina climatology.

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sorry to burst your bubble but with the NAO going back positive and the La Niña weakening, spring weather is right around the corner. Enjoy this while it lasts.

this pattern that set in won't break as easy as you may think... you will have to wait for spring for a few weeks!

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Upton pretty much nailed it in their 4pm AFD yesterday... drying in the mid-levels and BL issues make this a minor event for most. They were a little too far north with the precip and the warmth (this forecast was made before the south trend on a lot of the models that occurred at 18z and overnight yesterday). But the overall conservative nature of the forecast due to concerns over mid-level drying leading to poor snow growth and BL issues pretty much everywhere. A long duration light event with little accumulation. Epic win for Upton, and I say this as someone that thought they were a little too conservative (I was thinking 2-4 for most).

4pm Tuesday:

ONE CONCERN IN REGARDS TO BUFKITSOUNDINGS...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS NOT OPTIMAL IN THE SNOWGROWTH REGION TO LEAD TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWS...AS DRY MID-LEVELAIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

ONE THING FOR SURE IS THAT THERE WON`T BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPERFORCING TO COUPLE WITH THE PROGGED LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.THE MAIN 500 MB TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX WILL BEPOSITIVELY TILTED AND SLOWLY GETTING ABSORBED BY THE VORTEX. H3-5 FVECTOR CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL. SO FORCING WILL BE PROVIDEDBY WARM AIR ADVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND MODELS AREHINTING AT SOME LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WEDNESDAY TO ENHANCE SNOW ORRAIN RATES. CURRENT MODEL DISCREPANCIES ARE MAKING IT TOODIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE AND WHEN THIS BANDING WILL DEVELOP.

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Upton pretty much nailed it in their 4pm AFD yesterday... drying in the mid-levels and BL issues make this a minor event for most. They were a little too far north with the precip and the warmth (this forecast was made before the south trend on a lot of the models that occurred at 18z and overnight yesterday). But the overall conservative nature of the forecast due to concerns over mid-level drying leading to poor snow growth and BL issues pretty much everywhere. A long duration light event with little accumulation. Epic win for Upton, and I say this as someone that thought they were a little too conservative.

4pm Tuesday:

ONE CONCERN IN REGARDS TO BUFKITSOUNDINGS...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS NOT OPTIMAL IN THE SNOWGROWTH REGION TO LEAD TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWS...AS DRY MID-LEVELAIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.ONE THING FOR SURE IS THAT THERE WON`T BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPERFORCING TO COUPLE WITH THE PROGGED LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.THE MAIN 500 MB TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX WILL BEPOSITIVELY TILTED AND SLOWLY GETTING ABSORBED BY THE VORTEX. H3-5 FVECTOR CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL. SO FORCING WILL BE PROVIDEDBY WARM AIR ADVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND MODELS AREHINTING AT SOME LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WEDNESDAY TO ENHANCE SNOW ORRAIN RATES. CURRENT MODEL DISCREPANCIES ARE MAKING IT TOODIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE AND WHEN THIS BANDING WILL DEVELOP.

Not really an epic win, they busted huge in Central-Northern NJ where people got like 8" last night.

Also, the idea of temperatures keeping accumulations down has been patently false in Westchester. It's been all snow all day with some sleet mixing in, BL has basically been fine oscillating btwn 32-34. Upton may be right for the right reasons.

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Thundersnow and Thundersleet here!

Same here! This is uncanny-- thundersleet happened right around this same time on Jan 26! And we all know what happened afterwards! There's been three bright flashes of lightning and loud booms of thunder in the last 15 min or so.

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Not really an epic win, they busted huge in Central-Northern NJ where people got like 8" last night.

Also, the idea of temperatures keeping accumulations down has been patently false in Westchester. It's been all snow all day with some sleet mixing in, BL has basically been fine oscillating btwn 32-34. Upton may be right for the right reasons.

Too bad Morris & Warren counties arent in their FA.. Upton did a pretty good job. If anything they were too heavy on the snow for us up here.. Ill be lucky to hit 5"

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