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March 22-23 OBS/Disco


nzucker

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Agree 100%. Radar starting to build nicely now back in central Pennsylvania and this is all going to move east and be snow by the time it gets here.

Things are starting to jell. Becoming more and more confident that the abrupt cut back in the models was convective feedback from the ohio valley explosion.

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Overnight runs of the GFS printed out nearly 1" liquid for HPN, POU, SWF, and DXR with .75 nearly to ALB. If current GFS run verifies fairly close, most of these stations will received less than .3" for a storm total. I'm not sure if ALB has even registered measurable precip yet. Dewpoints are in the low teens up there.

I don' t think the problems are just feedback related.

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Also encourage how the convective precip has transitioned to a stratorm rain north and east of Pitt. Still plenty of convection firing in the southern portion of the state but having a nice solid blob of precip towards the cold sector is good.

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Overnight runs of the GFS printed out nearly 1" liquid for HPN, POU, SWF, and DXR with .75 nearly to ALB. If current GFS run verifies fairly close, most of these stations will received less than .3" for a storm total. I'm not sure if ALB has even registered measurable precip yet. Dewpoints are in the low teens up there.

I don' t think the problems are just feedback related.

gfs has been junk for days.

The other models that were more aggressive but backed off around 12z may still have the right idea. There is going to be a 4-5 hour of craziness tonight. Total liquid could still be in the .5 to .75 range when all is said and done.

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To be honest I dont really know what the hell it was. But it wasn't snow or sleet

I just had a 60 second pelting of something that sounded way too loud to be regular sleet. It was less numerous than regular sleet and much louder.

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gfs has been junk for days.

The other models that were more aggressive but backed off around 12z may still have the right idea. There is going to be a 4-5 hour of craziness tonight. Total liquid could still be in the .5 to .75 range when all is said and done.

for NENJ, NYC, and LI, yes. North of there, I don't think so.

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