Mr Torchey Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 nyc has to be pumped about the convection firing across ohio and heading ene, good sign imo. screw the europeans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 By the way, snow has really picked up in intensity here in Ramsey over the past 10 minutes, temperature has also dropped to 33. Snowing nicely here too. 34.8/33 Missed the nighttime WAA completely with almost nothing on the ground this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Back and fourth from rain and snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Strong convection. Hopefully will mean something in a few hours for our area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 where is the rain/snow line supposed to set up tonight ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 If I get a repeat of this morning when I wake up tomorrow, I'll be ecstatic. It was so beautiful, but now with the rain and the melt its just a slushy mess outside. Temps are around 36 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Snowing nicely here too. 34.8/33 Missed the nighttime WAA completely with almost nothing on the ground this morning. Most modeling was too wet in SENY and WCT overnight into this morning. Most spots have received a few hundreds to about a tenth of precip. There has been light snow around but it's a bit too warm to accumulate right now. Tonight's precip should be heavier and steadier with temps near freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 new ruc is just awful from the city east, good for jersey, but looking at that convection across the midwest, its hard not to get excited about something more substantial tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 Most modeling was too wet in SENY and WCT overnight into this morning. Most spots have received a few hundreds to about a tenth of precip. There has been light snow around but it's a bit too warm to accumulate right now. Tonight's precip should be heavier and steadier with temps near freezing. We basically had 10-mile visibility snow grains for a couple hours last night, finally got a dusting this morning but not very impressive when people in NJ and PA are getting 4-8"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 JFK and Central Park have already seen close to 0.50" liquid, while the Long Island airports have seen generally less than 0.10"...so at least not much was wasted out here so far. Snow is currently falling here in Port Jefferson. No accumulation today. Sunset is at 7:07 PM here...which should help a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 New srefs still think .50"-.75" additional tonight: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Never made it above 30* today.. Have had lgt snow all day but hasnt amounted to much... Still roughly 3" on the ground w/lgt snow...Temp of 29.7* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Most of the convection exploding over the OH valley right now should weaken considerably once it reaches this area, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 We just lost the NAM. It has gone the way of the euro, ukie and ggem. Almost no precip after 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 We just lost the NAM. It has gone the way of the euro, ukie and ggem. Almost no precip after 8pm. and the new RUC too. I cant believe how awful models were and still are in handling this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 1) They forecasted those totals based on the temperature being too warm, not because of lack of organized precip. 2) Those totals were for the entire storm, not just daytime accumulations. If the American model suite verifies, a trace to 2" will be too low even in the city. It's too early to declare victory with this one, especially since a majority of the guidance still has the main event several hours from now. The fact that the Euro is on the lower side of QPF guidance is no suprise, it's been that way all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The atmosphere here is way too stable for that convection to make it this far east. Energy should begin transfering to a coastal low which you can see has begun organizing off the VA capes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 HPN has had .12" QPF for this storm. Temps haven't been the problem in Westchester, there just hasn't been any storm to talk about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 We basically had 10-mile visibility snow grains for a couple hours last night, finally got a dusting this morning but not very impressive when people in NJ and PA are getting 4-8"... epic epic bust tubes. now the nam gives us nada, I am happy for those across nw jersey and ne pa, good for them, but for here, this will be one of the biggest model busts in years.......horrific! From sweetspot, to snowhole in less than 18 hours. Oh well, hopefully our friends down in new jersey can cash in tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 and the new RUC too. I cant believe how awful models were and still are in handling this storm. 19z RUC appears its bringing everything back. LOL. 18z lost it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 6-12 for all on the nam!!! Congrats guys! ...flakes that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 and the new RUC too. I cant believe how awful models were and still are in handling this storm. New RUC looks fine to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 latest NAM has really backed off for our area but how can you trust a model that has made such a large run to run change. By the way, moderate burst of snow now here in Ramsey, the hardest of the day so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 epic epic bust tubes. now the nam gives us nada, I am happy for those across nw jersey and ne pa, good for them, but for here, this will be one of the biggest model busts in years.......horrific! From sweetspot, to snowhole in less than 18 hours. Oh well, hopefully our friends down in new jersey can cash in tonight! Yeah, it's sort of ironic, our temps have been fine but we've been sitting under 15dbz returns for the whole storm. Brutal. I made the bet with the only expectation being that warm March temps would bring me down, now that turns out to be a non-issue with 2" accumulating on LI S Shore and 8" in NNJ at low elevation. I still think we might see some bands tonight but models are having a tough time with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Yeah latest ruc, 19z has impressive qpf in our area again after 18z lost it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Bustorama. Oh well. Bring spring back-today sucked with snow/rain mix and 34-35 all day.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 SPC WRF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I wonder if that convection over the midwest is robbing our coastal of moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The 18z NAM does not model the current precip over lake Erie and in Ohio very well. I'm not ready to throw in the towel on tonight. Spring overrunning systems with convection into cold air, without a well defined low center, frequently bust in both directions. Temps are starting to cool again, and that's always the hardest thing in spring. That said, it's hard to ignore that fact that the mid-level system is weakening/dampening, and the precip will weaken with it and slide southeast toward the developing coastal center. Some banding should set up somewhere between SENY and SNJ. With expectations dwindling, someone will get a pleasant surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I wonder if that convection over the midwest is robbing our coastal of moisture Very weird that 18z ruc lost the storm and now the new one, 19z is wettest yet. Hits our area pretty hard later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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