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March 22-23 OBS/Disco


nzucker

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Snowing nicely here too.

34.8/33

Missed the nighttime WAA completely with almost nothing on the ground this morning.

Most modeling was too wet in SENY and WCT overnight into this morning. Most spots have received a few hundreds to about a tenth of precip. There has been light snow around but it's a bit too warm to accumulate right now. Tonight's precip should be heavier and steadier with temps near freezing.

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Most modeling was too wet in SENY and WCT overnight into this morning. Most spots have received a few hundreds to about a tenth of precip. There has been light snow around but it's a bit too warm to accumulate right now. Tonight's precip should be heavier and steadier with temps near freezing.

We basically had 10-mile visibility snow grains for a couple hours last night, finally got a dusting this morning but not very impressive when people in NJ and PA are getting 4-8"...

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Guest Pamela

JFK and Central Park have already seen close to 0.50" liquid, while the Long Island airports have seen generally less than 0.10"...so at least not much was wasted out here so far. Snow is currently falling here in Port Jefferson. No accumulation today. Sunset is at 7:07 PM here...which should help a little.

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1) They forecasted those totals based on the temperature being too warm, not because of lack of organized precip.

2) Those totals were for the entire storm, not just daytime accumulations. If the American model suite verifies, a trace to 2" will be too low even in the city.

It's too early to declare victory with this one, especially since a majority of the guidance still has the main event several hours from now.

The fact that the Euro is on the lower side of QPF guidance is no suprise, it's been that way all year.

hotdog.gifhotdog.gif

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We basically had 10-mile visibility snow grains for a couple hours last night, finally got a dusting this morning but not very impressive when people in NJ and PA are getting 4-8"...

epic epic bust tubes. now the nam gives us nada, I am happy for those across nw jersey and ne pa, good for them, but for here, this will be one of the biggest model busts in years.......horrific! From sweetspot, to snowhole in less than 18 hours.

Oh well, hopefully our friends down in new jersey can cash in tonight!:snowman::thumbsup:

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epic epic bust tubes. now the nam gives us nada, I am happy for those across nw jersey and ne pa, good for them, but for here, this will be one of the biggest model busts in years.......horrific! From sweetspot, to snowhole in less than 18 hours.

Oh well, hopefully our friends down in new jersey can cash in tonight!:snowman::thumbsup:

Yeah, it's sort of ironic, our temps have been fine but we've been sitting under 15dbz returns for the whole storm. Brutal.

I made the bet with the only expectation being that warm March temps would bring me down, now that turns out to be a non-issue with 2" accumulating on LI S Shore and 8" in NNJ at low elevation. I still think we might see some bands tonight but models are having a tough time with this storm.

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The 18z NAM does not model the current precip over lake Erie and in Ohio very well. I'm not ready to throw in the towel on tonight. Spring overrunning systems with convection into cold air, without a well defined low center, frequently bust in both directions. Temps are starting to cool again, and that's always the hardest thing in spring.

That said, it's hard to ignore that fact that the mid-level system is weakening/dampening, and the precip will weaken with it and slide southeast toward the developing coastal center. Some banding should set up somewhere between SENY and SNJ. With expectations dwindling, someone will get a pleasant surprise.

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