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March 22-23 OBS/Disco


nzucker

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A little early for accolades and you sir flip flopped all day going from bust, to 3-6 back to bust...:whistle:

Im a weenie, and im talking about the daylight hours today, does not matter what i think, there forecast for today was spot on. Enjoy your mood flakes :thumbsup:

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kudos to okx, great call for the city lower westchester, ct shore and long island, no accumulations during the day today, and it looks like there numbers may actually have been too high, they took a lot of heat yesterday, I also doubted them, in the end it looks like they were dead on for those areas, WELL DONE UPTON!!!!!

And what happens if NYC gets 4" tonight? And thats a possibility.

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kudos to okx, great call for the city lower westchester, ct shore and long island, no accumulations during the day today, and it looks like there numbers may actually have been too high, they took a lot of heat yesterday, I also doubted them, in the end it looks like they were dead on for those areas, WELL DONE UPTON!!!!!

1) They forecasted those totals based on the temperature being too warm, not because of lack of organized precip.

2) Those totals were for the entire storm, not just daytime accumulations. If the American model suite verifies, a trace to 2" will be too low even in the city.

It's too early to declare victory with this one, especially since a majority of the guidance still has the main event several hours from now.

The fact that the Euro is on the lower side of QPF guidance is no suprise, it's been that way all year.

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1) They forecasted those totals based on the temperature being too warm, not because of lack of organized precip.

2) Those totals were for the entire storm, not just daytime accumulations. If the American model suite verifies, a trace to 2" will be too low even in the city.

It's too early to declare victory with this one, especially since a majority of the guidance still has the main event several hours from now.

The fact that the Euro is on the lower side of QPF guidance is no suprise, it's been that way all year.

You can say whatever you want, some people totally trashed upton yesterday and were out of line, if you read there afd, you would have seen that they mentioned limited moisture in the snow growth region and lack of forcing as to why they were thinking what they were. Both have come to fruition, as far as 4" in nyc proper tonight, if that happens thats fantastic for everyone, but a very unlikely outcome.

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You can say whatever you want, some people totally trashed upton yesterday and were out of line, if you read there afd, you would have seen that they mentioned limited moisture in the snow growth region and lack of forcing as to why they were thinking what they were. Both have come to fruition, as far as 4" in nyc proper tonight, if that happens thats fantastic for everyone, but a very unlikely outcome.

you are doing the same thing you are complaining about.

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You can say whatever you want, some people totally trashed upton yesterday and were out of line, if you read there afd, you would have seen that they mentioned limited moisture in the snow growth region and lack of forcing as to why they were thinking what they were. Both have come to fruition, as far as 4" in nyc proper tonight, if that happens thats fantastic for everyone, but a very unlikely outcome.

well I was not part of the NWS trashing crew yesterday, I've been downplaying this for the city all along. This was always a much more significant event 20 miles west of the city.

Right now it's 34 degrees here in Ramsey wih a light snow falling, Absolutly picturesque. Nothing to speak of on the roadways but ~ 3" on the grass. Trees covered since early AM.

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And maybe even lower if it snows-- do you think the chances are good that storm might come up the coast? The Yankee home opener on March 31 might be interesting if so.

Guidance for JFK Saturday morning is looking like low's 20's now.

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Does anyone else find it strange that Mt. Holly has a Winter Storm Warning for 4-8 inches tonight for Sussex, Warren, and Morris counties and yet not even an advisory for the counties just the the south? I mean it doesn't look like temps/precip-type will really be the main issue in this area with whatever falls tonight (it should be primarily snow)...the bigger issue is how much precip actually falls.

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Does anyone else find it strange that Mt. Holly has a Winter Storm Warning for tonight for Sussex, Warren, and Morris counties and yet not even an advisory for the counties just the the south? I mean it doesn't look like temps/precip-type will really be the main issue in this area with whatever falls tonight (it should be primarily snow)...the bigger issue is how much precip actually falls.

That's been my biggest question with regards to the NWS for this event. My thinking is, if they could split those counties in half they would keep the NW sections under the warning and put up advisories for the southern and eastern sections.

I really can't kill the NWS here, lets be honest, nobody cares if a foot of snow falls on the grass as long as nothing sticks to the roads. It will be fun to see who is caught off guard if the snowier solutions verify.

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Coldest this late since April 1982?

we have seen low 20's in late March in 1964, 1970 and 1982...

here are the Aprils with below freezing minimums in NYC...

year.....min.....total days 32 or lower...

2007....30....4

2004....29....3

2003....30....3

2002....30....3

2000....30....1

1997....28....3

1995....23....3

1992....31....1

1987....31....1

1985....28....2

1982....21....5

1980....32....1

1979....32....1

1978....31....1

1977....25....3

1976....25....2

1975....27....6

1974....28....2

1972....26....4

1970....31....1

1969....29....1

1968....32....1

1967....29....3

1965....29....1

1964....28....3

1958....29....1

1954....23....3

1950....26....8

1948....32....1

1944....26....4

1943....24....9

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That's been my biggest question with regards to the NWS for this event. My thinking is, if they could split those counties in half they would keep the NW sections under the warning and put up advisories for the southern and eastern sections.

If they wanted to do that I think they could...Upton is splitting Union, Essex, and Bergen counties by only putting the western parts under advisories. Don't see why Mt. Holly couldn't do the same thing if it wanted to.

There also seems to be some discrepancy between Upton and Mt. Holly as Upton has western Union county getting 4.2 inches and yet Mt. Holly doesn't even have Somerset county (just to the west) under an advisory.

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If they wanted to do that I think they could...Upton is splitting Union, Essex, and Bergen counties by only putting the western parts under advisories. Don't see why Mt. Holly couldn't do the same thing if it wanted to.

There also seems to be some discrepancy between Upton and Mt. Holly as Upton has western Union getting 4.2 inches and yet Mt. Holly doesn't even have Somerset county (just to the west) under an advisory.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --SLOW WARMING CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS SOME

UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHAT WILL HAPPEN WHEN THE NEXT BATCH OF

PRECIPITATION INTERSECTS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NJ AND THE SRN

POCONOS. THE WSW WARNING WILL CONTINUE WHERE IT IS. THERE MAY ALSO

BE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS TONIGHT WHEN THE STORM

DEPARTS. WE WILL LEAVE THE SNOW STORM TOTAL GRAPHIC ON THE WEB AND

CONSIDER IT SNOW THAT BOTH ALREADY HAS OCCURRED AND FUTURE SNOW

(TONIGHT). THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS CAN BE SEEN ON THE

PHLPNSPHI PRODUCT.

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I would assume the stuff that is supposed to hit tonight is the complex developing in Ohio currently...anyone else see that happening?

Every single American model, even the high-res ones and the RGEM (Canadian), all have .50"-.75" of qpf after 8pm tonight.

The 4DVAR global models (euro, ukie + ggem) have very little.

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I feel pretty confident as of now. I'm at work in Ramsey but judging by the ~2" already on the ground when I left at 7:30 and estimating what has fallen since per the radar I'm probably half way home. A 3-4 hour burst tonight would probably get it done. Now If I lived in western Morris County instead of eastern, I would have already come close to 7".

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Every single American model, even the high-res ones and the RGEM (Canadian), all have .50"-.75" of qpf after 8pm tonight.

The 4DVAR global models (euro, ukie + ggem) have very little.

I almost never trust the UKIE or Euro on QPF inside of 12 hours if those other models are showing something grossly different, also considering the insane run the RUC has had this winter overall in addition to those high res models I'll take my chances saying there will be a few inches tonight in NYC.

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I almost never trust the UKIE or Euro on QPF inside of 12 hours if those other models are showing something grossly different, also considering the insane run the RUC has had this winter overall in addition to those high res models I'll take my chances saying there will be a few inches tonight in NYC.

If I am forecasting for NYC, I would stress accumulations for colder surfaces only. Main roads in Manhattan to remain wet.

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