Mr Torchey Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 A little early for accolades and you sir flip flopped all day going from bust, to 3-6 back to bust... Im a weenie, and im talking about the daylight hours today, does not matter what i think, there forecast for today was spot on. Enjoy your mood flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 kudos to okx, great call for the city lower westchester, ct shore and long island, no accumulations during the day today, and it looks like there numbers may actually have been too high, they took a lot of heat yesterday, I also doubted them, in the end it looks like they were dead on for those areas, WELL DONE UPTON!!!!! And what happens if NYC gets 4" tonight? And thats a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 kudos to okx, great call for the city lower westchester, ct shore and long island, no accumulations during the day today, and it looks like there numbers may actually have been too high, they took a lot of heat yesterday, I also doubted them, in the end it looks like they were dead on for those areas, WELL DONE UPTON!!!!! 1) They forecasted those totals based on the temperature being too warm, not because of lack of organized precip. 2) Those totals were for the entire storm, not just daytime accumulations. If the American model suite verifies, a trace to 2" will be too low even in the city. It's too early to declare victory with this one, especially since a majority of the guidance still has the main event several hours from now. The fact that the Euro is on the lower side of QPF guidance is no suprise, it's been that way all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 1) They forecasted those totals based on the temperature being too warm, not because of lack of organized precip. 2) Those totals were for the entire storm, not just daytime accumulations. If the American model suite verifies, a trace to 2" will be too low even in the city. It's too early to declare victory with this one, especially since a majority of the guidance still has the main event several hours from now. The fact that the Euro is on the lower side of QPF guidance is no suprise, it's been that way all year. You can say whatever you want, some people totally trashed upton yesterday and were out of line, if you read there afd, you would have seen that they mentioned limited moisture in the snow growth region and lack of forcing as to why they were thinking what they were. Both have come to fruition, as far as 4" in nyc proper tonight, if that happens thats fantastic for everyone, but a very unlikely outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 You can say whatever you want, some people totally trashed upton yesterday and were out of line, if you read there afd, you would have seen that they mentioned limited moisture in the snow growth region and lack of forcing as to why they were thinking what they were. Both have come to fruition, as far as 4" in nyc proper tonight, if that happens thats fantastic for everyone, but a very unlikely outcome. you are doing the same thing you are complaining about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 You can say whatever you want, some people totally trashed upton yesterday and were out of line, if you read there afd, you would have seen that they mentioned limited moisture in the snow growth region and lack of forcing as to why they were thinking what they were. Both have come to fruition, as far as 4" in nyc proper tonight, if that happens thats fantastic for everyone, but a very unlikely outcome. well I was not part of the NWS trashing crew yesterday, I've been downplaying this for the city all along. This was always a much more significant event 20 miles west of the city. Right now it's 34 degrees here in Ramsey wih a light snow falling, Absolutly picturesque. Nothing to speak of on the roadways but ~ 3" on the grass. Trees covered since early AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 And maybe even lower if it snows-- do you think the chances are good that storm might come up the coast? The Yankee home opener on March 31 might be interesting if so. Guidance for JFK Saturday morning is looking like low's 20's now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Guidance for JFK Saturday morning is looking like low's 20's now. Coldest this late since April 1982? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Does anyone else find it strange that Mt. Holly has a Winter Storm Warning for 4-8 inches tonight for Sussex, Warren, and Morris counties and yet not even an advisory for the counties just the the south? I mean it doesn't look like temps/precip-type will really be the main issue in this area with whatever falls tonight (it should be primarily snow)...the bigger issue is how much precip actually falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Does anyone else find it strange that Mt. Holly has a Winter Storm Warning for tonight for Sussex, Warren, and Morris counties and yet not even an advisory for the counties just the the south? I mean it doesn't look like temps/precip-type will really be the main issue in this area with whatever falls tonight (it should be primarily snow)...the bigger issue is how much precip actually falls. That's been my biggest question with regards to the NWS for this event. My thinking is, if they could split those counties in half they would keep the NW sections under the warning and put up advisories for the southern and eastern sections. I really can't kill the NWS here, lets be honest, nobody cares if a foot of snow falls on the grass as long as nothing sticks to the roads. It will be fun to see who is caught off guard if the snowier solutions verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Coldest this late since April 1982? Yeah,if it dipped below 24 degrees which is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 New ruc continues to develop moderate to heavy precip over NYC around 9pm lasting all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Sleet and drizzle right now with a temp of 35. Most of the models have heavier precip coming into the area later tonight and the overnight hours .Hopefully the area can cash in on some accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Coldest this late since April 1982? we have seen low 20's in late March in 1964, 1970 and 1982... here are the Aprils with below freezing minimums in NYC... year.....min.....total days 32 or lower... 2007....30....4 2004....29....3 2003....30....3 2002....30....3 2000....30....1 1997....28....3 1995....23....3 1992....31....1 1987....31....1 1985....28....2 1982....21....5 1980....32....1 1979....32....1 1978....31....1 1977....25....3 1976....25....2 1975....27....6 1974....28....2 1972....26....4 1970....31....1 1969....29....1 1968....32....1 1967....29....3 1965....29....1 1964....28....3 1958....29....1 1954....23....3 1950....26....8 1948....32....1 1944....26....4 1943....24....9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 That's been my biggest question with regards to the NWS for this event. My thinking is, if they could split those counties in half they would keep the NW sections under the warning and put up advisories for the southern and eastern sections. If they wanted to do that I think they could...Upton is splitting Union, Essex, and Bergen counties by only putting the western parts under advisories. Don't see why Mt. Holly couldn't do the same thing if it wanted to. There also seems to be some discrepancy between Upton and Mt. Holly as Upton has western Union county getting 4.2 inches and yet Mt. Holly doesn't even have Somerset county (just to the west) under an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duality Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 If they wanted to do that I think they could...Upton is splitting Union, Essex, and Bergen counties by only putting the western parts under advisories. Don't see why Mt. Holly couldn't do the same thing if it wanted to. There also seems to be some discrepancy between Upton and Mt. Holly as Upton has western Union getting 4.2 inches and yet Mt. Holly doesn't even have Somerset county (just to the west) under an advisory. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion --SLOW WARMING CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHAT WILL HAPPEN WHEN THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION INTERSECTS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NJ AND THE SRN POCONOS. THE WSW WARNING WILL CONTINUE WHERE IT IS. THERE MAY ALSO BE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS TONIGHT WHEN THE STORM DEPARTS. WE WILL LEAVE THE SNOW STORM TOTAL GRAPHIC ON THE WEB AND CONSIDER IT SNOW THAT BOTH ALREADY HAS OCCURRED AND FUTURE SNOW (TONIGHT). THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS CAN BE SEEN ON THE PHLPNSPHI PRODUCT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 According to Euro, GGEM and UKIE earthlight and Isotherm both will win their bets. I must have missed it, what was John's bet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I must have missed it, what was John's bet? He said that if noreaster85 gets 7"+ he wont post for 2 weeks. HRRR and RUC seem to think NYC will recieve 4"+ and Noreaster85, 6"+ tonight. RUC very aggressive as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I would assume the stuff that is supposed to hit tonight is the complex developing in Ohio currently...anyone else see that happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 He said that if noreaster85 gets 7"+ he wont post for 2 weeks. HRRR and RUC seem to think NYC will recieve 4"+ and Noreaster85, 6"+ tonight. RUC very aggressive as well. wouldn't they lose their bets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I would assume the stuff that is supposed to hit tonight is the complex developing in Ohio currently...anyone else see that happening? Every single American model, even the high-res ones and the RGEM (Canadian), all have .50"-.75" of qpf after 8pm tonight. The 4DVAR global models (euro, ukie + ggem) have very little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 wouldn't they lose their bets? Right now, they are looking good. Especially if euro, ukie or ggem verifies. Which basically give us 0 tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Right now, they are looking good. Especially if euro, ukie or ggem verifies. Which basically give us 0 tonight. yeah, 12z euro takes low and the majority of the precip well south. We'll see, its only 6-8 hrs away now, just nowcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 yeah, 12z euro takes low and the majority of the precip well south. We'll see, its only 6-8 hrs away now, just nowcast Yeah pretty much using HRRR and RUC now and both are pretty aggressive tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 17z HRRR hour 9... Hour 10: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I feel pretty confident as of now. I'm at work in Ramsey but judging by the ~2" already on the ground when I left at 7:30 and estimating what has fallen since per the radar I'm probably half way home. A 3-4 hour burst tonight would probably get it done. Now If I lived in western Morris County instead of eastern, I would have already come close to 7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Snowing quite well right now. Still no accumulation though some slush gathering on the car tops in the NW Bron. Temperature is 32.7. Edit: Precip intensity let up and the temperature rose to 33.3. That's kinda cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Every single American model, even the high-res ones and the RGEM (Canadian), all have .50"-.75" of qpf after 8pm tonight. The 4DVAR global models (euro, ukie + ggem) have very little. I almost never trust the UKIE or Euro on QPF inside of 12 hours if those other models are showing something grossly different, also considering the insane run the RUC has had this winter overall in addition to those high res models I'll take my chances saying there will be a few inches tonight in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 By the way, snow has really picked up in intensity here in Ramsey over the past 10 minutes, temperature has also dropped to 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I almost never trust the UKIE or Euro on QPF inside of 12 hours if those other models are showing something grossly different, also considering the insane run the RUC has had this winter overall in addition to those high res models I'll take my chances saying there will be a few inches tonight in NYC. If I am forecasting for NYC, I would stress accumulations for colder surfaces only. Main roads in Manhattan to remain wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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