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March 22-23 OBS/Disco


nzucker

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A few people were chatting about it yesterday, but it's just incredible that we're getting frozen precipitation. The gradient is ridiculous.

Yeah, this is something you might expect in late February, but we're lucky to have the gradient in our favor this time of year.

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A few people were chatting about it yesterday, but it's just incredible that we're getting frozen precipitation. The gradient is ridiculous.

It is quite remarkable.. you're absolutely right! If someone showed you some maps in that particular area and then hid the Northeast part of the country, you would almost certainly guess that a broad southwesterly flow would be pushing it's way northeastward into the northeast and we would eventually be getting warm sectored, big time... that confluent flow coming in from the north and west really was able to firmly entrech some cold air our way.

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It is quite remarkable.. you're absolutely right! If someone showed you some maps in that particular area and then hid the Northeast part of the country, you would almost certainly guess that a broad southwesterly flow would be pushing it's way northeastward into the northeast and we would eventually be getting warm sectored, big time... that confluent flow coming in from the north and west really was able to firmly entrech some cold air our way.

I think this is what we expected to happen last March-- but the warmth overcame the pattern. We ended the season with a 20" retrograding snowstorm at the end of February and never saw another measurable accumulation after that.

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Euro has .16" thru 8pm and almost nothing after. Only .11" Not good for NYC posters. Lets hope NAM, GFS, SREFS are correct.
Looking at radar, I can see how the Euro verifies--if it does this will be one heck of a bust for some of the models and a tip of the cap to some folks and Upton who have downplayed this one all the way....
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Euro has .24" tonight.

The whole setup is complicated because even yesterday, we have disorganized areas of precip with pockets of mid level drying. That disorganized appearance usually means the forcing is out of place or rather light. We had a strong burst of WAA whic dumped on nw NJ last night, but models seem to lack a redevelopment of additional moisture. It probably will later on, but the question remains as to how organized will it be.

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Kind of ugly. Shifted south again with about 0.3" additional QPF from 18Z. Forcing is meager.

Yeah, forcing really doesn't look that great . Looking at 700mb on the GFS/NAM at 18 hours the best omega forcing happens over the benchmark, and the dry air starts to punch through at that time cutting the precipitation off.

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The whole setup is complicated because even yesterday, we have disorganized areas of precip with pockets of mid level drying. That disorganized appearance usually means the forcing is out of place or rather light. We had a strong burst of WAA whic dumped on nw NJ last night, but models seem to lack a redevelopment of additional moisture. It probably will later on, but the question remains as to how organized will it be.

I edited. Euro only has .12" after 8pm. .16" from now thru 8pm.

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Looking at radar, I can see how the Euro verifies--if it does this will be one heck of a bust for some of the models and a tip of the cap to some who have downplayed this one all the way....

discounting it due to rain vs snow and discounting due lack of moisture are two different things....if it busts because of the latter, not many of the debbie downers would have been correct.

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The models are hinting that JFK may see its lowest temperature for the end of March since 2001 on Saturday.

And maybe even lower if it snows-- do you think the chances are good that storm might come up the coast? The Yankee home opener on March 31 might be interesting if so.

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Oh the new euro is out already? .30 total QPF and how much as snow with temps AOB 32?

Yes. New Euro

2pm-8pm - .16"

8pm-8am - .12"

850's are fine. Surface is 33-36.

American models are much more aggressive, including MM5, ARW and NMM which all have .50"-.75". As well as GFS, NAM and RGEM. The .50"-.75" comes AFTER 8pm, while euro drops only .12" after 8pm. GGEM and UKIE agree 100% with euro, btw.

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kudos to okx, great call for the city lower westchester, ct shore and long island, no accumulations during the day today, and it looks like there numbers may actually have been too high, they took a lot of heat yesterday, I also doubted them, in the end it looks like they were dead on for those areas, WELL DONE UPTON!!!!!

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kudos to okx, great call for the city lower westchester, ct shore and long island, no accumulations during the day today, and it looks like there numbers may actually have been too high, they took a lot of heat yesterday, I also doubted them, in the end it looks like they were dead on for those areas, WELL DONE UPTON!!!!!

A little early for accolades and you sir flip flopped all day going from bust, to 3-6 back to bust...:whistle:

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kudos to okx, great call for the city lower westchester, ct shore and long island, no accumulations during the day today, and it looks like there numbers may actually have been too high, they took a lot of heat yesterday, I also doubted them, in the end it looks like they were dead on for those areas, WELL DONE UPTON!!!!!

Its lack of precip. If the night event happens like some models have and .50"-.75" of qpf falls after 8pm, upton would be wrong.

We all knew nothing at all would accumulate during day time.

Right now, it appears that nothing is forming and radar is spotty.

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