uncle W Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I have over an inch on grassy surfaces and exposed objects...33 degrees... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I have over an inch on grassy surfaces and exposed objects...33 degrees... What time did you measure? We should have very similar amounts (same latitude). Temp is the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Overnight stuff wasn't based in elevation. It was a strict who got into heavier banding. For instance. Jamaica Queens area has a good amount of snow covering almost everything. And a few miles north in northern and eastern Queens, almost nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Webcam at Jones Beach (Point Lookout) shows a slushy dusting on roof tops, but the beach itself looks wet. Temp there is 34F, up from a low of 33F. http://www.lishore.org/jones/latest.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Snow has changed to drizzle here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Overnight stuff wasn't based in elevation. It was a strict who got into heavier banding. For instance. Jamaica Queens area has a good amount of snow covering almost everything. And a few miles north in northern and eastern Queens, almost nothing. Yes it was weird-- basically NW Queens did a lot better than NE Queens and the mix line was going NW to SE, so the further East you went the more Rain you saw. It was snowing here pretty hard for a few hours while it was raining east of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I'm posting the SREF maps below with the caveat that it is doing poorer than other guidance (6z NAM and RGEM, SPC WRF) on the ongoing overrunning snow this morning. In fact, it has less than an inch for the entire NYC area through 15z, with the exception of NE NJ where it has 1-2". The main takeaway here from the SREF is that NW NJ, most of the lower Hudson Valley, all of southern CT, as well as the North Fork of LI are likely to receive warning criteria snow tonight. The SREF is likely a bit too warm on low-level temps so it's probably too low on snowfall on the southern fringe of the huge snowfall gradient it shows - i.e. Bergen County and Westchester County as well as much of LI away from the immediate South Shore. Here's the SREF probability of reaching warning criteria (6"+ snow in a 12 hour period) for 9z tonight. Here's the SREF mean snow accumulation. There's going to possibly be a big gradient between areas in the city like JFK to areas where Nate lives in Dobbs Ferry. Maybe even the north shore of LI. I think I-80..maybe down to I-78 (away from the very high spots) may be the line of demarcation here. You brought up the point about convection mucking up things as well. I think the best mid level RH and frontogenesis will be in this area to up to the Catskills and CT. The precip should organize to the west, but we'll have to see how organized it becomes. Also, as was witnessed up here the other day, elevation of just 200' could make a 2-3" difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 What time did you measure? We should have very similar amounts (same latitude). Temp is the same. Not necessarily, it was streaming NW to SE and weakening as it crawled east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I take it back...were up to two inches on the grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 There's going to possibly be a big gradient between areas in the city like JFK to areas where Nate lives in Dobbs Ferry. Maybe even the north shore of LI. I think I-80..maybe down to I-78 may be the line of demarcation here. You brought up the point about convection mucking up things as well. I think the best mid level RH and frontogenesis will be in this area to up to the Catskills and CT. The precip should organize to the west, but we'll have to see how organized it becomes. Also, as was witnessed up here the other day, elevation of just 200' could make a 2-3" difference. Hopefully the gradient sets up in coastal NJ -- last night, Nate unfortunately ended up in the screw zone as most of it shunted south of him. I don't put much stock in time of year -- as I've seen many times the confluence be strong enough to screw us even into April... it's all dependent on how strong that is as far as how far south that gets. There might be some mixed precip at the start, but I doubt it rains or mixes once past 8 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Not necessarily, it was streaming NW to SE and weakening as it crawled east.. Going by the echoes it was pretty good right up into western Nassau and then for some reason it was raining in eastern Nassau and Suffolk county, as well as coastal CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I take it back...were up to two inches on the grass LOL and it just started snowing again-- albeit very lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Overnight stuff wasn't based in elevation. It was a strict who got into heavier banding. For instance. Jamaica Queens area has a good amount of snow covering almost everything. And a few miles north in northern and eastern Queens, almost nothing. They definitely got more snow more south in Queens than where I am by the bridge, despite more urbanity. It's all about where the precip sets up. Cunningham park looked amazing driving to work today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 37 and light rian here now in Long Beach.I still have a light coating of snow on the grass and cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 37 and light rian here now in Long Beach.I still have a light coating of snow on the grass and cars. The mix/changeover line is somewhere between the 2 mile distance between LB and Woodmere.... very light snow here and now 33.8....1 inch of snow measured at JFK.... JC.... can you check the snowfall totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The mix/changeover line is somewhere between the 2 mile distance between LB and Woodmere.... very light snow here and now 33.8 There is barely anything on radar. We have to now wait a few hours for the low to travel east. For next few hours, spotty drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The mix/changeover line is somewhere between the 2 mile distance between LB and Woodmere.... very light snow here and now 33.8....1 inch of snow measured at JFK.... JC.... can you check the snowfall totals? Just a light coating left and melting off the grass and cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 There is barely anything on radar. We have to now wait a few hours for the low to travel east. For next few hours, spotty drizzle. Is this spotty light snow from onshore flow? It's falling so lightly you can count the individual flakes as they fall lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Hopefully the gradient sets up in coastal NJ -- last night, Nate unfortunately ended up in the screw zone as most of it shunted south of him. I don't put much stock in time of year -- as I've seen many times the confluence be strong enough to screw us even into April... it's all dependent on how strong that is as far as how far south that gets. There might be some mixed precip at the start, but I doubt it rains or mixes once past 8 PM. The one thing that sucks, is that it will warm aloft without the dynamics and lift to fight it back. This will also have somewhat of a wnw-ese tilt to the cold...i.e. it will be colder northeast, warmer to the southwest in areas near and above 850mb. However if some of the dynamics progged moves in, it should help borderline areas near the city. At that point, it could flip to a 200mb isothermal snowbomb. Big day of watching radar trends. If the dynamics and lift develop as some models have, it could be something like a slushy coating..maybe an inch at JFK, but places near 200' in Washinghton Heights get 3 or 4". Maybe more just to the north. Spring storms are very difficult because they are dynamic with a lot of + bust potential..as well as screw potential. Still looks like areas in NRN NJ near 1000' close to the NY border and esp just north may clean up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Your thermometer is probably running about 2F too warm. At 8AM, JFK was only 34F, and surrounding Weather Underground stations (S. Freeport, Long Beach) are at 34.5F and 34.1F, respectively. http://classic.wunde...sp?ID=KNYFREEP2 http://classic.wunde...sp?ID=KNYLONGB5 37 and light rian here now in Long Beach.I still have a light coating of snow on the grass and cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The one thing that sucks, is that it will warm aloft without the dynamics and lift to fight it back. This will also have somewhat of a wnw-ese tilt to the cold...i.e. it will be colder northeast, warmer to the southwest in areas near and above 850mb. However if some of the dynamics progged moves in, it should help borderline areas near the city. At that point, it could flip to a 200mb isothermal snowbomb. Big day of watching radar trends. If the dynamics and lift develop as some models have, it could be something like a slushy coating..maybe an inch at JFK, but places near 200' in Washinghton Heights get 3 or 4". Maybe more just to the north. Spring storms are very difficult because they are dynamic with a lot of + bust potential..as well as screw potential. Still looks like areas in NRN NJ near 1000' close to the NY border and esp just north may clean up. Yup, N NJ got 8-10 inches of snow-- I bet they woke up to a HUGE surprise today. Looks like JFK came in with 1" last night, so maybe they add another inch tonight pending how the heavier banding sets up. If the heavier banding sets up in the right way, it should make up for borderline temps. I remember April 1996, when we had 1 inch of snow per hour and like 6-12 inches of snow and it was just above freezing (33-34) the entire time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The one thing that sucks, is that it will warm aloft without the dynamics and lift to fight it back. This will also have somewhat of a wnw-ese tilt to the cold...i.e. it will be colder northeast, warmer to the southwest in areas near and above 850mb. However if some of the dynamics progged moves in, it should help borderline areas near the city. At that point, it could flip to a 200mb isothermal snowbomb. Big day of watching radar trends. If the dynamics and lift develop as some models have, it could be something like a slushy coating..maybe an inch at JFK, but places near 200' in Washinghton Heights get 3 or 4". Maybe more just to the north. Spring storms are very difficult because they are dynamic with a lot of + bust potential..as well as screw potential. Still looks like areas in NRN NJ near 1000' close to the NY border and esp just north may clean up. some areas of north nj have 5-10 inches already. narrow heavy band formed over night. I was just to the north of it and have a big inch lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 some areas of north nj have 5-10 inches already. narrow heavy band formed over night. I was just to the north of it and have a big inch lol Thats crazy lol-- did you ever think you might be too far north? lol, if anything we thought the higher totals would be further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Your thermometer is probably running about 2F too warm. At 8AM, JFK was only 34F, and surrounding WeatherBug stations (S. Freeport, Long Beach) are at 34.5F and 34.1F, respectively. http://classic.wunde...sp?ID=KNYFREEP2 http://classic.wunde...sp?ID=KNYLONGB5 Nope,I live a little over a block from the ocean.That wunderground site that you linked is calibrated too low. This one is usually with in .5 a degree of me.It' was 36.5 earlier and in a different location to the water than I am and am 36.9 at the moment. http://www.wundergro...sp?ID=KNYLONGB6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Looks like we're getting one final burst of somewhat heavier snow before Part 1 completely pulls out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Nope,I live a little over a block from the ocean.That wunderground site that you linked is calibrated too low. Maybe you're both right and you're just too close to the Ocean... could be a marine influence that only extends a couple of blocks inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 What was your temp at 7AM? Jones Beach was only 34F at 7AM - they should have very similar temps to you. http://www.lishore.org/jones/latest.htm Nope,I live a little over a block from the ocean.That wunderground site that you linked is calibrated too low. This one is usually with in .5 a degree of me. http://www.wundergro...sp?ID=KNYLONGB6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 HUGE half dollar sized flakes falling right now -- BW you're not getting this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 What was your temp at 7AM? Jones Beach was only 34F at 7AM - they should have very similar temps to you. http://www.lishore.o...ones/latest.htm Here right at the shore it's not unusual to see these variations by a degree of two especially in a light wind pattern. The Jones Beach Coast Guard instruments are seated in a grassy area near some pines. This station tracks very close to me: http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KNYLONGB6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Yup, N NJ got 8-10 inches of snow-- I bet they woke up to a HUGE surprise today. Looks like JFK came in with 1" last night, so maybe they add another inch tonight pending how the heavier banding sets up. If the heavier banding sets up in the right way, it should make up for borderline temps. I remember April 1996, when we had 1 inch of snow per hour and like 6-12 inches of snow and it was just above freezing (33-34) the entire time. That goes to show you how tricky these storms are. Dynamics are everything. JFK got into that good band. It's those bands mdt to hvy snow that really are what pile up the snow. It looks like areas that didn't get the benefit of that were more lighter snows or a mix, based on the obs here. The same deal for the April 1996 storm. Recall that had a mega deformation band that pivoted into LI, during the overnight hours. That's how you pile it up. So you can see why people are conservative for borderline areas. It's tough to make a weenie-cast and bash people being conservative when you have to bank on a renegade band of mdt to hvy snow to really pile it up. It's the type of snows that may be difficult to stick where vis is a mile or greater. Temps aloft were very cold this morning, which helped the cause for the city. It will be interesting to see how things go today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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