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March 22-23 OBS/Disco


nzucker

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I have my camera ready. Dude I think I am gonna get like 8" and you won't even need a picture, but I will take 20 shots of my beautiful snow if your heart desires.

i think thats going to be tough at your elevation.  maybe if you were 1000 ft up.  4-5 is a safer guess

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I'll be happy if we can squeeze out a slushy coating here. A warm wet ground ... temps above freezing ... east winds ... lack of dynamics. Too much going against this, especially for so late in the season. I agree with the folks that are calling for only a trace to an inch for north-central Jersey to NYC. I think there's a decent possibility that I'll end up with no snow on the ground here. I'm glad people in the colder spots to the north and west will get to enjoy some decent accumulations though.

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Was checking out the NAM text soundings for KSMQ and it does appear that the 0z run made a pretty significant warm trend from 18z. The 18z run kept all of the layers other than the surface at or below freezing almost the entire time, while the 0z run has significant warming between 750 and 800 mb during the time that most of the precip falls (with temps ranging from 1-2 degrees C). Surface temps also appeared to warm slightly.

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