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00z ECMWF buries NC/VA


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The new GooFuS(12Z),living up to it's bias of course, say's no such thing and totally squashes/ obliterate's the southern wave and then quickly anhilates the pattern!

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yup...

One thing I'm looking for is to see if the mega block from hell that's been showing up in that 6 to 10 day range holds in the modelling as the long range becomes the mid range. It looks like the 12z gfs has weakened it some making what would have been a clipper snow event here for late weekend, a rain event as the low goes much further north.

looks like the canadian 12z keeps the block bully.....clipper goes off virginia...much further south

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That's for next Sunday morning.. 6 days from today.

Yes, the new Euro has the clipper blowing up into a decent MA and New England storm, suppresses the second SW system. Does not really matter, the models remain comically different even at as early as day 4 and by days

7-10 we basically have chaos with all the flip-flops and extreme differences, Trying to be specific right now beyond day 4 is an exercise in futility.

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Kinda close in the time frame to another big snowstorm we had here on Dec 2-3 2000, it was one of the bigger storms of my life here in eastern NC and that was also a fairly strong La Nina winter I believe. RAH has a great case study on the system and it was way more localized than what the current Euro runs.

It was a heck of a storm a friend had a picnic table in the middle of his open backyard and at one point we measured 15" on it and this was after it had compacted a bit by far the most impressive snow I can remember other than the Dec 22 1989 storm and of course March 1980. I remember the storm was originally called for the triangle west and The Weatehr Channel sent crews to Raleigh and they ended up with a flizzard.

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20001203/

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CMC more in line with the Euro...GFS not at all. I'm liking this clipper system- I say that this thing does actually produce. I don't know, it's just a feeling. I think that the Euro may be overdoing it slightly, but wouldn't it make sense that this clipper system transfer its energy to the coast and make a storm? I mean, it's not that farfetched an idea. Certainly bears watching, as I think it's more realistic than the ridiculous thing the 00z Euro was showing.

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