Wet Pattern Likely Soon for Tenn Valley/ Southeast

[FoothillsNC]

The pattern shown on the models is a classic wet, early Spring pattern beginning Saturday. The slow moving, nearly stationary vortex in Eastern Canada and the central Canada closed high will help stall a stationary, baroclinic boundary somewhere in the Southeast/Tenn Valley. Meanwhile several pockets of energy will get ejected and forced south across the I-40 corridor, or slightly either side approximately, and help focus rainfall and severe Wx as Cheeznado mentioned. The event probably won't be continuous, but could morph more or less into a prolonged event as the final southwest 4 Corners low comes east around Sunday or Monday. Well before then though, I think antecedent conditions could be very wet in some areas, and finally when the bulk of the low comes east, it will throw a large rain event down again. Some areas could end up with over 6" of rain over a pretty large region, but it depends on where initial training sets up. Meanwhile of course convection could rob other areas, and dump even more if the training continues to repeat, but mesoscale features like that can't be pinpointed yet, so I broad brushed the Southeast and Lower Miss. Valley as possible candidates. I'd lean toward the interior Gulf States as hardest hit to the Southern Apps region as the area with the most rain when said and done. The northern shield of this toward Ohio Valley (if it makes it there) could be a snow/rain mix, or even end as snow at some point in the Appalachians, depending on how much cold air is forced south.

[LithiaWx]

Awesome, just as the weather was getting stagnant and boring around here I have this to look forward to. Bring on the rains!

[buckeyefan1]

I don't trust those totals for mby...it would be sweet..but the last 3 systems to cross this area only about 1/4 to 1/3 of what was shown actually fell. If anything I will welcome the cool,cloudy, with some occasional sprinkles/showers that next week brings. I'm already tired of the upper 80's, but thankful there is no nasty humidity to go along with it.......for now

[Gastonwxman]

I feel quite optimistic about this upcoming pattern that's coming our way. It's about time we entered a period where a parade of systems bring in precipitation instead of the usual where we seem to stay dry for a good chunk of Spring until Summer arrives with its afternoon pop-up thunderstorms. Now if we can just sort of hold on to this scenario as shown by the GFS/Euro when we get close to the last few days of March, I think we can safely say that things are looking promising as far as rain totals go for those of us who have been missing out recently from past rain events (like myself). Hopefully we can move the bulk of that rainfall (refer to Robert's map) further east so everyone can get in on something. Even if what is shown by GFS doesn't come out to be as much as it shows, for some people 75% of those predicted totals would be a big help regardless. The ground here has got to where dust kicks up even when a light breeze blows on by and thus could really use some rain right about now before the fire danger gradually worsens. Let's see where we go from here with our developing change in the pattern.

[FoothillsNC]

I don't trust those totals for mby...it would be sweet..but the last 3 systems to cross this area only about 1/4 to 1/3 of what was shown actually fell. If anything I will welcome the cool,cloudy, with some occasional sprinkles/showers that next week brings. I'm already tired of the upper 80's, but thankful there is no nasty humidity to go along with it.......for now

I don't trust the models' placement either, which is why I took the liberty to shift it west and nw some, away from central Carolinas. Atleast the heaviest of the heavy, but I do think we have a shot at a real rain event even in this area that misses a lot of the events , but I was just pointing out the possibility that this could get into a really heavy rain event with training for some areas, probably the Apps and west. I'd love to see things shift east some. Either way, a lot of us are due some rain I think, and like you, I'd take half the totals shown on Euro and GFS.

[superjames1992]

We have what appears to be a halfway decent rain-maker for some of us coming in tomorrow night per some of the models, but I am concerned about donwsloping, which should keep totals down <0.25" for almost all of us, I think, barring convective activity.

The bulk of the rain is going to be further north with the associated low pressure system, of course.

[FoothillsNC]

We have what appears to be a halfway decent rain-maker for some of us coming in tomorrow night per some of the models, but I am concerned about donwsloping, which should keep totals down <0.25" for almost all of us, I think, barring convective activity.

The bulk of the rain is going to be further north with the associated low pressure system, of course.

yes this front will have some downsloping, but there could be a few areas that get some severe tonight in NC as the front crosses. Right now the models place nw NC as the most downsloped area, which is odd, usually its further south toward here. But after this event is when our chances of rain really go up. The models still show Saturday as the beginning of it. The New NAM looks good and matches the others, with a cool or cold rain in VA and NC, and overrunning and dynamics screaming in from the west which is usually a good precip maker here.

[NCSNOW]

yes this front will have some downsloping, but there could be a few areas that get some severe tonight in NC as the front crosses. Right now the models place nw NC as the most downsloped area, which is odd, usually its further south toward here. But after this event is when our chances of rain really go up. The models still show Saturday as the beginning of it. The New NAM looks good and matches the others, with a cool or cold rain in VA and NC, and overrunning and dynamics screaming in from the west which is usually a good precip maker here.

Robert what are your thougts on the rest of spring/summer. I appreciate thie thread/heads up. Several on here are in the same camp as me and rely heavily on growing the groceries, Late April through mid July is crunch time. You seeing any clues that stand out as far as pattern recognition that might tip your hand as to how things may turn out relative to normal climo wise. Thanks in advance.

[FoothillsNC]

Right now the models place nw NC as the most downsloped area, which is odd, usually its further south toward here.

I receieved .06" from the front, wasn't expecting much. The models missed the downsloping area, indeed it was east of the southern mtns of NC, not northern mtns.

Robert what are your thougts on the rest of spring/summer. I appreciate thie thread/heads up. Several on here are in the same camp as me and rely heavily on growing the groceries, Late April through mid July is crunch time. You seeing any clues that stand out as far as pattern recognition that might tip your hand as to how things may turn out relative to normal climo wise. Thanks in advance.

I really haven't studied the Nina much lately since Winter, but if its waning I think the Southeast could be getting back to a little wetter pattern in general. But that still may not be quite enough to get NC , esp. central and eastern Carolinas out of the drought. By Summer, I do believe the central Carolinas will do much better relative to their normals in rainfall, when Summer convection season kicks in.

[Isopycnic]

With this convective activity last night I am doing better than last spring when it did not rain at ALL...

[FoothillsNC]

With this convective activity last night I am doing better than last spring when it did not rain at ALL...

Looks like a cold damp weekend in NC statewide, I'm looking forward to it.

[Lookout]

Good post robert. Didn't see this post until now but will pin it. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. I sure hope we get a good soaker so we can wash away this damn pollen.

[ATL_Militarypolice]

12Z GFS has another system roll through next Wednesday-Friday.

[FoothillsNC]

the next week to 8 days is still looking wet across a good chunk of the Southeast. Will be a cool rain on the north side/damming areas of the front, with that big high over the Lakes and southern Canada, and the boundary across the Tenn. Valley waffling back and forth. There's even snow likely in the north end from Missouri to Virginia. Next week the same thing roughly, several ripples come in from the west and any of these could make it rain, the models have trouble with timing and which s/w, but overall it looks cloudy and damp. Some areas could get severe south of the front. Its a good pattern for grass to grow and get water into the ground. Atleast a break from the pollen, but once this period passes the pollen will explode.

[JQPublic]

I'm ready for a nice prolonged green and rainy spring!

[FoothillsNC]

The NAM is staying really cold in the damming areas, pretty much all of NC in the east-west stratification of the 850 and surface cold. The snow line is going to get extremely close to the higher northwest NC mtns in addition to western VA mtns at some point, maybe right before ending. Otherwise, a solid, cold rainy day will overspread the Tenn Valley rapidly early predawn Saturday and reach across most of the northern part of GA and upper SC and all of NC by midday or sooner Saturday, helping lock in the cold low levels. I won't be suprised to see forecast high temps Saturday come down more than 15 degrees from where they're currently forecast across the board in NC. The NAM looks even colder at the surface and up through 925 and 850, so its a cold Spring rain. The models are primed for another good event following this one, and more extremely cold rain north of the boundary (snow very north shield)

[FoothillsNC]

This is way down the line, about 168 hours now, but for a few days the GFS has been showing a major Gulf low coming north. Lately the ECMWF has followed its lead, so far its weaker though.

[Mencken_Fan]

Awesome, just as the weather was getting stagnant and boring around here I have this to look forward to. Bring on the rains!

Has the Tennessee drought ended? (Or am I way behind the times...)

[griteater]

Has the Tennessee drought ended? (Or am I way behind the times...)

[Lookout]

the 12z nam is a major winter storm for southern va, pretty much right down to the nc border. Major snow in a thin stripe across central va (due to warm temps around 800mbs) but it has a very cold boundary layer with 900 to 950mb temps down in the -4 to -5c range. It even has 900 to 950mb temps of around -1 to -2c at GSO...although it has a significant warm layer above that and surface temps just above freezing...but it is very very close to freezing rain there..especially considering the models usually bust by 1 to 3 degrees on surface temps in damming situations. It would be pretty insane to see a major freezing rain event this late in the year in these areas but it's very possible that there will be a stripe of it, with significant sleet/snow to the north.

[Lookout]

Forgot to mention, even RDU seems to end in light freezing precip as it drops RDU below freezing by hour 60 (hovering just above freezing all day sunday). A pretty amazing setup and situation here if this materializes given the time of year.

[Lookout]

Here is the 42 to 48 hour mecklanburg va's sounding. Front end snow changing to potentially a lot sleet or freezing rain per these soundings. So needless to say there is some potential here for this to make it into nc too.

Of course this is the 48 hour nam and Gfs isn't nearly as cold and it's further north and is easily all rain. Will be interesting to see what the 12z run shows. Such an unusual setup though for so late in the year..this setup is something you would expect to see in the middle of winter..not the last week of march.

Date: 42 hour Eta valid 6Z SUN 27 MAR 11
Station: KAVC
Latitude:   36.70
Longitude: -78.05
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
    mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SFC 1004    94   2.9   0.3  83  2.5   1.8  64   8 275.7 276.4 274.8 286.3  3.90
 1 1000   125   2.3   0.2  86  2.1   1.4  64   9 275.5 276.1 274.6 286.0  3.88
 2  950   537  -0.8  -1.9  92  1.1  -1.3  74  21 276.4 277.0 274.5 286.0  3.49
 3  900   967  -2.1  -2.8  95  0.7  -2.3  86  19 279.4 280.0 276.2 289.0  3.46
 4  850  1422  -1.4  -1.5  99  0.1  -1.4 154   7 284.7 285.4 279.6 296.1  4.04
 5  800  1906  -0.8  -1.0  99  0.2  -0.9 216  22 290.3 291.1 282.7 303.1  4.45
 6  750  2422  -0.4  -0.5 100  0.0  -0.4 224  38 296.1 297.0 285.5 310.6  4.93
 7  700  2973  -2.0  -2.0 100  0.0  -2.0 231  48 300.3 301.1 286.9 314.4  4.71
 8  650  3561  -4.1  -4.1 100  0.0  -4.1 239  59 304.3 305.1 287.9 317.6  4.33
 9  600  4190  -6.7  -7.0  98  0.2  -6.8 247  69 308.3 309.0 288.8 320.1  3.78

Date: 48 hour Eta valid 12Z SUN 27 MAR 11
Station: KAVC
Latitude:   36.70
Longitude: -78.05
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
    mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SFC 1003    94   0.4  -0.5  94  0.9   0.1  43  12 273.4 274.0 273.1 283.3  3.68
 1 1000   117  -0.4  -1.0  95  0.7  -0.6  46  12 272.8 273.4 272.5 282.4  3.54
 2  950   524  -3.8  -3.8 100  0.0  -3.8  58  28 273.3 273.8 272.1 281.6  3.03
 3  900   950  -4.8  -5.1  98  0.3  -4.9  83  29 276.6 277.1 273.8 284.7  2.91
 4  850  1403  -1.1  -1.3  99  0.1  -1.2 150  15 284.9 285.7 279.8 296.5  4.09
 5  800  1890   1.9   1.9 100  0.0   1.9 211  34 293.2 294.1 284.9 309.1  5.48
 6  750  2412   2.7   2.7 100  0.0   2.7 239  51 299.5 300.6 288.1 317.9  6.20
 7  700  2968  -0.1  -0.1 100  0.0  -0.1 257  58 302.4 303.4 288.3 318.7  5.4

[FoothillsNC]

Forgot to mention, even RDU seems to end in light freezing precip as it drops RDU below freezing by hour 60 (hovering just above freezing all day sunday). A pretty amazing setup and situation here if this materializes given the time of year.

if the NAM is right, and I think it done ok lately with temps and precip in this region, versus GFS, then this is one extremely close call. There's no doubt some snow will fall on the ridges next to VA border, and the column is cold throughout even to the surface in the northern piedmont. Current forecasts are highs in upper 40's to upper 50's though.

[griteater]

Will be interesting to see how this shakes out as I find the NAM to typically be too cold with the GFS more in line with reality.

[Tullioz]

The 18Z NAM continues to trend colder here along the NC/VA Border. At least I have rain mixed with snow and sleet in the forecast for Saturday night into Sunday evening. I would like to see one more shot at Wintry weather this weekend so that there will not be such a long stretch before we see it again next Winter. I'm still not expecting much though.

[superjames1992]

I'm rather interested in this thing. I definitely wouldn't want to be forecasting for this system because there's a very fine line between plain old rain and SN/IP/ZR. Should be a close call. I will be in GSO this weekend, so I might stand a chance at seeing a little something wintry on the back side, per the major models.

The 18z NAM barely lifts GSO's 850 temps above freezing throughout the whole event. Of course, surface temps likely can and will be a problem, but it's looking like something to watch.

[eyewall]

Definitely an interesting setup to watch. Too bad this didn't happen in Feb.

[JQPublic]

Forgot to mention, even RDU seems to end in light freezing precip as it drops RDU below freezing by hour 60 (hovering just above freezing all day sunday). A pretty amazing setup and situation here if this materializes given the time of year.

Fishel is now calling for sleet in Northern counties. Perhaps even into the Triangle. We'll see?

[buckeyefan1]

What a spread in the models still on qpf amounts and timing. The NAM gives me .28, not starting until early Sunday, and the GFS says 1.45 starting around lunchtime.

I'm pulling for the GFS

[FoothillsNC]

What a spread in the models still on qpf amounts and timing. The NAM gives me .28, not starting until early Sunday, and the GFS says 1.45 starting around lunchtime.

I'm pulling for the GFS

the radar this morning shows the elements moving due east across n GA and Al heading for n. SC, but south of I-40, so somewhere between 20 and 40 looks like jackpot today. Good luck to both of us.