Another winter storm March 28-30?

[Chicago WX]

I think the 12z NAM swipes you just enough for that slushy inch you've been looking for.

It does, but just a quick look at the other guidance from 0z says the NAM is on its own...and most likely wrong. Man what a struggle to get one more inch of snow.

Gonna have to visit the winter grade thread and do a readjustment...

[The_Global_Warmer]

the 12z nam drops a band of heavy snowfall here.

but it is extremely borderline.

Soundings for my city are borderline.

but the entire column does wet bulb below freezing for much of the event.

Surface temps suck.

But this is at night. There is an easterly fetch of dry cool air.

The nam has impressive UVV's threw the column but exp between 500-700mb with high moisture.

Basically the nam would give us another hampster flake wet snow mess.

[Chicago WX]

the 12z nam drops a band of heavy snowfall here.

but it is extremely borderline.

Soundings for my city are borderline.

but the entire column does wet bulb below freezing for much of the event.

Surface temps suck.

But this is at night. There is an easterly fetch of dry cool air.

The nam has impressive UVV's threw the column but exp between 500-700mb with high moisture.

Basically the nam would give us another hampster flake wet snow mess.

Early congrats again. STL making a nice late run at 40" and a top 5 season.

1) 67.6" - 1911/12

2) 66.0" - 1977/78

3) 43.2" - 1913/14

4) 42.4" - 1973/74

5) 38.4" - 1905/06

6) 36.8" - 2010/11 (through yesterday)

7) 36.6" - 1981/82

8) 36.3" - 1976/77

9) 35.2" - 1959/60

10) 33.7" - 1909/10

[RobertSul]

Well, just keep in mind, Detroit's biggest snowstorm in its recorded history occurred in April.

I already know I am a fool hoping for a snowstorm in april. This cold sux.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Early congrats again. STL making a nice late run at 40" and a top 5 season.

1) 67.6" - 1911/12

2) 66.0" - 1977/78

3) 43.2" - 1913/14

4) 42.4" - 1973/74

5) 38.4" - 1905/06

6) 36.8" - 2010/11 (through yesterday)

7) 36.6" - 1981/82

8) 36.3" - 1976/77

9) 35.2" - 1959/60

10) 33.7" - 1909/10

It would be great to get to 3rd overall.

[Hoosier]

Another miss to the south. What is this, mid January?

We're willing our way to an inch by any means necessary...

[Chicago WX]

We're willing our way to an inch by any means necessary...

We're not going to make it.

[Hoosier]

We're not going to make it.

Looks like we might have favorable overnight timing and it's been rather chilly lately so ground temps may only be a mild concern at best. Biggest issue is actually getting substantial precip in here.

[Chicago WX]

Looks like we might have favorable overnight timing and it's been rather chilly lately so ground temps may only be a mild concern at best. Biggest issue is actually getting substantial precip in here.

All things look favorable other than the most important missing piece...actual precip. Oh well, congrats STL...again.

[cyclone77]

the 12z nam drops a band of heavy snowfall here.

but it is extremely borderline.

Soundings for my city are borderline.

but the entire column does wet bulb below freezing for much of the event.

Surface temps suck.

But this is at night. There is an easterly fetch of dry cool air.

The nam has impressive UVV's threw the column but exp between 500-700mb with high moisture.

Basically the nam would give us another hampster flake wet snow mess.

Quit hogging all the exciting weather dammit!! Haha, jk. Hope to see at least someone get a nice snow from this. Funny thing is though in a week you guys will be roasting in the 80s, while we're stuck in the upper 40s with east winds.

[Hoosier]

All things look favorable other than the most important missing piece...actual precip. Oh well, congrats STL...again.

18z NAM gets the job done.

[cyclone77]

DVN not impressed.

THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EARLY WEEK SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH

EACH MODEL RUN DEPICTING A WEAKER MID LEVEL WAVE. AT THE

SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING FROM S CENTRAL CANADA TO THE GREAT

LAKES LIMITS ANY INTRUSION OF THE INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A

SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY AND

WEDNESDAY. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED TO SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION CHANCES

FROM LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE

CENTRAL AND NORTH REMAINING DRY.

[Chicago WX]

18z NAM gets the job done.

Meh. Time to punt.

[Hoosier]

Meh. Time to punt.

In all seriousness, while I have nothing to back this up, it seems like the NAM has been performing better than the GFS with these waves lately. I'd like to see more model support but I don't think all hope is lost yet.

[Harry]

The April Fools (describes us more than it does the storm) storm is spawned by a separate s/w.

Pretty much.

Another miss to the south. What is this, mid January?

Crazy huh? Very frustrating to say the least.

It does, but just a quick look at the other guidance from 0z says the NAM is on its own...and most likely wrong. Man what a struggle to get one more inch of snow.

Gonna have to visit the winter grade thread and do a readjustment...

If we piss away all this potential and my backyard does not receive a decent dump my grade will be a F.

[cyclone77]

FWIW, the St. Louis WRF says congrats St. Louis to LAF.

[Chicago WX]

In all seriousness, while I have nothing to back this up, it seems like the NAM has been performing better than the GFS with these waves lately. I'd like to see more model support but I don't think all hope is lost yet.

:weenie: ...so there.

We shall see if the NAM wins this one.

[Chicago WX]

Crazy huh? Very frustrating to say the least.

If we piss away all this potential and my backyard does not receive a decent dump my grade will be a F.

Almost unbelievable.

At worst, I can't lower my grade to less than a B+ considering it was a top 10 season for LAF...and well winter generally sucks here. But with the misses to the north and south this March, well with just one inch to go for 50 and not getting there...I have to drop it from an A- to a B+.

[michsnowfreak]

Almost unbelievable.

At worst, I can't lower my grade to less than a B+ considering it was a top 10 season for LAF...and well winter generally sucks here. But with the misses to the north and south this March, well with just one inch to go for 50 and not getting there...I have to drop it from an A- to a B+.

Its a little different for me....winter gets an A+, no room for changes. So basically, whether we do piss away all this unseasonable cold, or simply add to the season snowfall total, its a moot point for my grade. But last night when I left a friends around 2am, i had a scarf and gloves on, it was crazy to think April is a few days away.

[Hoosier]

Its a little different for me....winter gets an A+, no room for changes. So basically, whether we do piss away all this unseasonable cold, or simply add to the season snowfall total, its a moot point for my grade. But last night when I left a friends around 2am, i had a scarf and gloves on, it was crazy to think April is a few days away.

What would you have given this winter if you got a 20" storm? A++?

[snowstormcanuck]

What would you have given this winter if you got a 20" storm? A++?

Yeah, I think Josh is a little loose with his grading. If I lived in Detroit I'd be in A- territory right now. But this stuff is all subjective and he's a snowcover hound, so I sort of see where he's coming from.

[Stebo]

Yeah, I think Josh is a little loose with his grading. If I lived in Detroit I'd be in A- territory right now. But this stuff is all subjective and he's a snowcover hound, so I sort of see where he's coming from.

Yeah A- is my grade, and unlike others that would take away if we miss now, I won't because its almost April and I know the chances of significant snow are there but much less compared to earlier.

[snowstormcanuck]

Yeah A- is my grade, and unlike others that would take away if we miss now, I won't because its almost April and I know the chances of significant snow are there but much less compared to earlier.

Yup, the potential over the next week to 10 days is nothing but gravy. If none of it materializes I'll hardly notice.

[snowstormcanuck]

Preliminary, but it appears the GGEM gets the gold for how it handled this one.

[Hoosier]

Yeah A- is my grade, and unlike others that would take away if we miss now, I won't because its almost April and I know the chances of significant snow are there but much less compared to earlier.

Hey, I'm going for a key milestone here. Being this close and in this pattern, if we can't muster an inch, the only option is to penalize.

[Harry]

Yeah, I think Josh is a little loose with his grading. If I lived in Detroit I'd be in A- territory right now. But this stuff is all subjective and he's a snowcover hound, so I sort of see where he's coming from.

If i lived there it would have been a B+. Yes it was a top 10 season and had decent snowcover and even some nice surprises but ala most of the old #1 snowfall records ( big storm/seasonal ) still sit and thus the oldest in the region and still lacking a big storm of over a foot. To get a A- or higher some decent snowfall record better fall if there is no big storm.

A winter that gets a A- or high needs this. See 08-09 ( A- ) here-Seasonal record smashed and tons of action, 95-96 A+ back east ( seaonal record smashed and big epic storms ) or 66-67 here ( Epic storms and seasonal snowfall record at that point )or even 77-78/81-82 which had a big bomb/sustain cold and very deep long lasting snowcover well into March and or April in the case of 1982.

I admit i am being a little harsh about this winter too as there has been far worse but in most cases all shared in it and thus did not have to go just a few miles to see above normal snows etc. Yes being just missed i count in my final grade. Thus a D+ is probably a more fair grade to give this winter.

[cyclone77]

The fact that I still give this winter an A+ even without a 1"+ snow since early Feb shows how remarkable a winter it was up until then. It's totally sucked since then, but Dec-Feb 2 was very nice.

[Stebo]

Hey, I'm going for a key milestone here. Being this close and in this pattern, if we can't muster an inch, the only option is to penalize.

I suppose under that circumstance sure.

[michsnowfreak]

What would you have given this winter if you got a 20" storm? A++?

My grade is based on all things considered. So is that a 20" storm and not much else? Or is it 20" storm in addition to everything else? Many on here claim all that matters is a big storm. Based on that, we could have a 24" storm and 5" more snow the rest of the winter (never would happen, Im just using as an example)...they would give winter an A, I would give it a D (though the storm Im sure would get an A+).

This is our 5th winter of the past 9 to see 60+ inches of snow. Before the 2002-03 winter you had to go back to 1981-82 to see 60+. So needless to say, that is insane in itself. However, there were a few things about this winter that were not seen in the other 4 recent winters to exceed 60"+.

~Whitest winter since 1981-82. Never before had I seen a winter with snow on the ground as many days as I had seen this year. In fact, this winter beat the other superb winters of recent years by 1-2 weeks of snowcover, not to mention a LOT of those days were deep snow. As many know, snowcover is my biggest thing. For instance, say we had a crummy 25-30" winter with no big storms but bitterly cold and snowcovered the whole winter, Id give that winter probably a B/B- while I can guarentee EVERYONE else here would give it an F. On the flip side, a winter like 2001-02 which saw over 40" of snow but tons of warm air and snowcover never lasted longer than a week at a time, Id probably give a C at best, despite the fact that we had several good storms (worst snow+ice storm combo Ive ever seen) and the fact that MI was one of the few areas to not have a horrendous winter did not increase that grade either (Im one of the few who does not give bonus points or demerits to HIS winter because of what goes on elsewhere, I personally think thats silly, but to each his own).

~Surprises. Never ever have we come CLOSE to seeing as many surprise snowstorms as weve seen this winter. In a typical winter, if you would take the model qpf forecasts from 48 hours out, youd probably see predictions of twice as much snow as you received. This year I guarentee model qpf 48 hours out would give us less snow than we actually got. Even the smaller scale snows in January performed as expected or slightly better. Only the GHD storm underperformed.

~Thundersnow three different storms

~6th snowiest winter so far, including the 2nd snowiest feb/3rd snowiest month on record, and my snowiest month Ive seen, with 31.8" (this beats out my old personal best Jan 2005's 31.2")

[Stevo6899]

My grade is based on all things considered. So is that a 20" storm and not much else? Or is it 20" storm in addition to everything else? Many on here claim all that matters is a big storm. Based on that, we could have a 24" storm and 5" more snow the rest of the winter (never would happen, Im just using as an example)...they would give winter an A, I would give it a D (though the storm Im sure would get an A+).

This is our 5th winter of the past 9 to see 60+ inches of snow. Before the 2002-03 winter you had to go back to 1981-82 to see 60+. So needless to say, that is insane in itself. However, there were a few things about this winter that were not seen in the other 4 recent winters to exceed 60"+.

~Whitest winter since 1981-82. Never before had I seen a winter with snow on the ground as many days as I had seen this year. In fact, this winter beat the other superb winters of recent years by 1-2 weeks of snowcover, not to mention a LOT of those days were deep snow. As many know, snowcover is my biggest thing. For instance, say we had a crummy 25-30" winter with no big storms but bitterly cold and snowcovered the whole winter, Id give that winter probably a B/B- while I can guarentee EVERYONE else here would give it an F. On the flip side, a winter like 2001-02 which saw over 40" of snow but tons of warm air and snowcover never lasted longer than a week at a time, Id probably give a C at best, despite the fact that we had several good storms (worst snow+ice storm combo Ive ever seen) and the fact that MI was one of the few areas to not have a horrendous winter did not increase that grade either (Im one of the few who does not give bonus points or demerits to HIS winter because of what goes on elsewhere, I personally think thats silly, but to each his own).

~Surprises. Never ever have we come CLOSE to seeing as many surprise snowstorms as weve seen this winter. In a typical winter, if you would take the model qpf forecasts from 48 hours out, youd probably see predictions of twice as much snow as you received. This year I guarentee model qpf 48 hours out would give us less snow than we actually got. Even the smaller scale snows in January performed as expected or slightly better. Only the GHD storm underperformed.

~Thundersnow three different storms

~6th snowiest winter so far, including the 2nd snowiest feb/3rd snowiest month on record, and my snowiest month Ive seen, with 31.8" (this beats out my old personal best Jan 2005's 31.2")

Once we do get that 20+ snowstorm, you will then admit that it's better than snowcover, etc