snowstormcanuck Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I'm not saying that it means much, considering how far south and suppressed most of the models were as of this afternoon, but we've just seen two models make noticeable NW shifts. I have a feeling this will be a NW shift for most of the models. Maybe, but remember these are the same models that came crashing SE at 12z. Things are fluid right now, I wouldn't get too attached to any one solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Maybe, but remember these are the same models that came crashing SE at 12z. Things are fluid right now, I wouldn't get too attached to any one solution. I thought it was primarily the GFS that came crashing south? I guess the SREFs did too, but the NAM has been on the southern end for awhile now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 RGEM much stronger sfc low coming into the plains.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I thought it was primarily the GFS that came crashing south? I guess the SREFs did too, but the NAM has been on the southern end for awhile now. The 21z SREF improved a bit from the 15z run The 18z GFS improved a bit from the 12z run The 0z NAM improved a good amount from the 12z/18z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 The 21z SREF improved a bit from the 15z run The 18z GFS improved a bit from the 12z run The 0z NAM improved a good amount from the 12z/18z runs. Yeah, hence the trend. We'll see though. I'm actually surprised temps will even be warm enough to produce a decent swath of 6 inches of snow south of the Great Lakes region like the models depict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I thought it was primarily the GFS that came crashing south? I guess the SREFs did too, but the NAM has been on the southern end for awhile now. 9z/15z SREFS were south of the previous 21z/3z runs. 12z NAM looked like it was south of the 6z run, although they were both pretty crappy. In any case, like I mentioned in a previous post, NW trend stuff is being cited too frequently, especially considering the trend on balance this winter if storms to be modelled too far NW in the D3-7 time period. Hopefully this storm is the exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Yeah, hence the trend. We'll see though. I'm actually surprised temps will even be warm enough to produce a decent swath of 6 inches of snow south of the Great Lakes region like the models depict. The "NW" trend is a much overused term. Just because a storm on a particular suite of models happens to sway N doesn't mean it is a "NW" trend. Here the models are simply flip-flopping N and S with the shortwave itself. A "NW" trending storm occurs during deep and rapid positive feedback cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 HUGE difference in the H7 low and UVV's between the 0z and 12z NAM runs 0z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 9z/15z SREFS were south of the previous 21z/3z runs. 12z NAM looked like it was south of the 6z run, although they were both pretty crappy. In any case, like I mentioned in a previous post, NW trend stuff is being cited too frequently, especially considering the trend on balance this winter if storms to be modelled too far NW in the D3-7 time period. Hopefully this storm is the exception. I should have said a NW "tick" in the last model cycle. Trend is too certain of a word, given the flip flopping nature, you are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 The 0z took a step back from the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Perfect example of the bs of crying NW trend from a couple models...just don't do it ever again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 The 00z gfs was useless. I would end with a bit of wet snow and everyone get's nothing. At least if the H5 vort is gonna be to far north for snow here then it might as well be strong enough for more precip in the cold sector. So at least someone can get snow. this is a great pretty much last chance for most if not all of us so I hope this thing is a bad boy for someone. I had the best snow event here since Dec 2000. We only had 5 inches. But it snowed as if we had a foot or more. Literally 3-4 hours of heavy snow 30-35 dbz that is very impressive and rare for here. To bad it wasn't January 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 GEM has a decently strong vort max over central Colorado, maybe a bit south of central. Either way it looks like it will end up much better then the gfs for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Nevermind, the gem does have a decent storm but it doesn't deepen enough to wrap in much cold..even though the northern side is probably snow somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 The UKMET shifted well south...however, develops a massive bomb that rides Apps later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 LOL, my bad again. The GEM develops a large cold east coast trough. and would bring rounds of snow with powerful vorts coming down around a closed H5 low in Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 euro looks better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 6z NAM is a central MO to LAF special with more QPF than the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 The Euro had little to nil for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Based on the 0z UKIE/EURO and 6z GFS, I think it's time to start to shift focus from this event to the April Fool's storm potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Based on the 0z UKIE/EURO and 6z GFS, I think it's time to start to shift focus from this event to the April Fool's storm potential. 06Z GFS FTW....00Z UKMET 967mb over PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 GRR WHAT CATCHES MY EYE NEXT IS THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM TO THAT ONE. AT 27/00Z IT WAS CROSSING THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THIS SYSTEM TRIES TO OVERWHELM THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. THAT BEING SO THE SYSTEM THAT IS NOW FORECAST TO GO UP THE EAST COAST COULD WELL BE MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN THAT. WHICH COULD MEAN A RATHER STORMY WEEKEND FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. SO I AM VERY NOT WARM AND FUSSY WITH ANY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEYOND THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES. I BELIEVE WHAT WILL REALLY HAPPEN IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM ANY CURRENT SOLUTIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 My 7 week old is warm and fussy, all the time I was surprised to see the swath the HPC painted for day three. Here I thought winter was over. Some colder temps would help if we are to see any of it stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 So the april fools storm is a secondary from this storm? Or it's a totally different system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 So the april fools storm is a secondary from this storm? Or it's a totally different system? The April Fools (describes us more than it does the storm) storm is spawned by a separate s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Another miss to the south. What is this, mid January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Another miss to the south. What is this, mid January? I think the 12z NAM swipes you just enough for that slushy inch you've been looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 The April Fools (describes us more than it does the storm) storm is spawned by a separate s/w. I already know I am a fool hoping for a snowstorm in april. This cold sux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Though I will admit if this gorgeous sunny weather is our consolation for missing these storms then I won't mind it at all. It's better than being socked in lake stratus (or cirro/altostratus) everyday while dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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