cyclone77 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Amazing that we were around 52-53" after the groundhog blizzard, and we still won't reach 60". Climo FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Amazing that we were around 52-53" after the groundhog blizzard, and we still won't reach 60". Climo FTW. In contrast, GHD was a debacle here, but I've seen 25" since. However, I'd still trade with you in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 DTX should make some feel slightly better THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY DEEP AND COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MON/MON NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY INCONSISTENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS TO THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS WAVE AS IT EMERGES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY. SEVERAL SOLUTIONS HAVE MAINTAINED A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO...WHICH WOULD ACT TO SHEAR THIS WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP TO THE SOUTH. THE 00Z AND 06Z GFS SOLUTIONS INDICATED THIS RIDGE BREAKING DOWN MORE QUICKLY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A DEEPER AND MUCH FARTHER NORTH UPPER WAVE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN SE MI BY WED MORNING. THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF HAVE ALSO TRENDED TOWARD THIS DIRECTION. THE 12Z GFS HOWEVER HAS TRENDED BACK TOWARD A MORE SHEARED AND FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION /MUCH LIKE THE CANADIAN/...SUGGESTING A DRY FORECAST FOR SE MI. SUSPECT THE MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS SYSTEM UNTIL THE UPPER WAVE ACTUALLY ENTERS THE NORTH AMERICAN RAOB NETWORK ON MONDAY. THE CURRENT SATELLITE DEPICTION OF THIS WAVE CERTAINLY ARGUES FOR THE STRONGER/MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTIONS. FOR THIS REASON...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE TUES NIGHT/WED TIME FRAME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 As well as IWX .LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/ CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GRTLKS EXPECTED TO WKN SUBSTANTIALLY BY MONDAY AS UPR LOW OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE SHIFTS NE TO THE LABRADOR COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW NEXT IN SERIES OF PACIFIC SHRTWV`S TO TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST TUE/WED. 12Z GFS WAS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SUGGESTING BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR CWA. PREVIOUS RUNS SEEMED MORE REASONABLE GIVEN STRONG CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TODAY... THUS MAINTAINED GOING POPS FOR TUE NGT/WED. SLOWER TREND IN GFS WRT THIS SYSTEM MORE GRADUAL AND PLAUSIBLE GIVEN SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS...THUS DID TRIM POPS FOR TUE AFTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 18Z NAM is just pitiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Mr. Izzi's thoughts LOT THE POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IS APPARENTLY OFF THE AGENDA IF YOU BUY THE LATEST GFS. AFTER SEEING MODELS ALL TREND TOWARD THE GFS FOR THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IN ADVERTISING A SNOWSTORM NEARBY...THE GFS HAS TAKEN A 180 TURN AND NOW HAS ONLY A LOW AMPLITUDE OPEN WAVE PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP. NEEDLESS TO SAY...ITS CHALLENGING TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO HANDLE THESE HUGE SWINGS IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE GRIDS. THE SUGGESTED "MODELED CONSENSUS" APPROACH RESULTED IN LIKELY POPS LAST NIGHT SWINGING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS MORNING'S GUIDANCE. DECIDED TO TEMPER THIS HUGE SWING AND JUST ADJUST POPS DOWN TO LIKELY TO CHANCE...SINCE ITS ANYONE'S GUESS WHERE THE SPINNING MODEL ROULETTE WHEEL WILL LAND WITH THE NEXT SET OF RUNS. MUCH LIKE THE OLD PRICE IS RIGHT GAME "PLINKO"...DETERMINING WHERE THE LITTLE PUCK (IE. OUR WEATHER) WILL END UP IS TOUGH TO KNOW WHEN WE DONT KNOW WHICH PEGS IT WILL BOUNCE AROUND EARLY ON. CONSENSUS OF 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS WAS FOR A REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE BY NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH IS WHAT IS IN THE GRIDS. HAVING SAID THAT THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH ISNT INCLUDED IN THE MAGICAL MODEL COCKTAIL WE INITIAL OUR GRIDS...KEEPS TEMPS MUCH COLDER LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AND HARD TO DISCOUNT THIS (OR ANY SOLUTION) AT THIS POINT. IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Mr. Izzi's thoughts LOT THE POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IS APPARENTLY OFF THE AGENDA IF YOU BUY THE LATEST GFS. AFTER SEEING MODELS ALL TREND TOWARD THE GFS FOR THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IN ADVERTISING A SNOWSTORM NEARBY...THE GFS HAS TAKEN A 180 TURN AND NOW HAS ONLY A LOW AMPLITUDE OPEN WAVE PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP. NEEDLESS TO SAY...ITS CHALLENGING TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO HANDLE THESE HUGE SWINGS IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE GRIDS. THE SUGGESTED "MODELED CONSENSUS" APPROACH RESULTED IN LIKELY POPS LAST NIGHT SWINGING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS MORNING'S GUIDANCE. DECIDED TO TEMPER THIS HUGE SWING AND JUST ADJUST POPS DOWN TO LIKELY TO CHANCE...SINCE ITS ANYONE'S GUESS WHERE THE SPINNING MODEL ROULETTE WHEEL WILL LAND WITH THE NEXT SET OF RUNS. MUCH LIKE THE OLD PRICE IS RIGHT GAME "PLINKO"...DETERMINING WHERE THE LITTLE PUCK (IE. OUR WEATHER) WILL END UP IS TOUGH TO KNOW WHEN WE DONT KNOW WHICH PEGS IT WILL BOUNCE AROUND EARLY ON. CONSENSUS OF 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS WAS FOR A REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE BY NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH IS WHAT IS IN THE GRIDS. HAVING SAID THAT THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH ISNT INCLUDED IN THE MAGICAL MODEL COCKTAIL WE INITIAL OUR GRIDS...KEEPS TEMPS MUCH COLDER LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AND HARD TO DISCOUNT THIS (OR ANY SOLUTION) AT THIS POINT. IZZI I'm loving The Price Is Right (greatst game show ever) simile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I'm loving The Price Is Right (greatst game show ever) simile. his AFD's tend to have some humor in them from time to time lol he also like to have hidden messages in them...take thursday's AFD for example, read down the most left column of letters.. .DISCUSSION... 302 PM CDT NO BIG CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AS UNSEASONABLY COLD NW FLOW LOCKS IN RESULTING IN FEBRUARY LIKE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERES STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING OUR SNOW POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY SEEING LAKE EFFECT PLUME WEAKEN BUT MAY REDEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND AGAIN TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. FLURRY CHANCES TONIGHT LOOK LOWER AS INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN FROM THIS MORNINGS LEVELS. LOOKING AHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT EAST OUT OF WESTERN TROUGH AND WEAKEN RUNNING INTO CONFLUENT FLOW IN OUR VICINITY. MODELS TRENDING SOUTH/WEAKER WITH SATURDAY SYSTEM WITH EACH RUN INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SNOW MOSTLY MISSING ALL BUT OUR SOUTHERN MOST CWA...AND EVEN THERE ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS AT BEST (WORST). OLD MAN WINTER`S ENCORE PERFORMANCE WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK BEFORE MAYBE SOME MODERATION FROM MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TO JUST BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS MUCH OUT OF PHASE WITH REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE GENERALLY DISCOUNTED IT AND FOLLOWED ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NEXT WEEK. IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Well, at least the 18z GFS is an improvement from the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Well, at least the 18z GFS is an improvement from the 12z run. Which doesn't say much, it's still pretty awful compared to the runs before 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Which doesn't say much, it's still pretty awful compared to the runs before 12z. Take any improvements you can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 26, 2011 Author Share Posted March 26, 2011 his AFD's tend to have some humor in them from time to time lol he also like to have hidden messages in them...take thursday's AFD for example, read down the most left column of letters.. .DISCUSSION... 302 PM CDT NO BIG CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AS UNSEASONABLY COLD NW FLOW LOCKS IN RESULTING IN FEBRUARY LIKE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERES STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING OUR SNOW POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY SEEING LAKE EFFECT PLUME WEAKEN BUT MAY REDEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND AGAIN TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. FLURRY CHANCES TONIGHT LOOK LOWER AS INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN FROM THIS MORNINGS LEVELS. LOOKING AHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT EAST OUT OF WESTERN TROUGH AND WEAKEN RUNNING INTO CONFLUENT FLOW IN OUR VICINITY. MODELS TRENDING SOUTH/WEAKER WITH SATURDAY SYSTEM WITH EACH RUN INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SNOW MOSTLY MISSING ALL BUT OUR SOUTHERN MOST CWA...AND EVEN THERE ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS AT BEST (WORST). OLD MAN WINTER`S ENCORE PERFORMANCE WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK BEFORE MAYBE SOME MODERATION FROM MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TO JUST BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS MUCH OUT OF PHASE WITH REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE GENERALLY DISCOUNTED IT AND FOLLOWED ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NEXT WEEK. IZZI I remember that "send supercells north" one or whatever it was. Gonna have to start paying more attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I remember that "send supercells north" one or whatever it was. Gonna have to start paying more attention. yep that was hilarious lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Our site was down last night so didn't get a chance to look at the GFS with our graphics but had to put up the differences between the 0z and 12z runs of the GFS, just laughable. 0z GFS 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 We will get some sampling tonight (maybe 25% of the entire system?). The main portion of the system is still way out in the Pacific ufnortunately. We won't have a full sampling until 12z Monday. That low up in Eastern Canada is going to wreak havoc too as the models try to get a handle on how much confluence we'll have to contend with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I remember that "send supercells north" one or whatever it was. Gonna have to start paying more attention. This guy is a genius. The best thing to happen to meteorology in this century... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 any thoughts csnavy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Looks like the 21Z SREF is an improvement from the 15Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 The models theme song for this storm ( and for most winter storms lol) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DwQbPgouUYo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 00z NAM may be an improvement from the 12z run. But again, it's not saying much. Relatively speaking we have a ways to go until we reach the solutions we had yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 00z NAM may be an improvement from the 12z run. But again, it's not saying much. Relatively speaking we have a ways to go until we reach the solutions we had yesterday. Significant changes from the 12/18z runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Significant changes from the 12/18z runs... Big time, pops a 1010mb sfc low at 78hr that goes over PAH with some decent snow in southern/eastern IA moving into northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Hmm, it almost did go back to yesterday's solution. It'll be interesting to see what the on the models shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 just how much better the s/w looks on this run compared to the 12z NAM 0z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Partial Sampling FTW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Partial Sampling FTW... The wave in question is not being sampled yet by the RAOB network. It is still well out in the Pacific south of Alaska. The current wave just moving onshore will be sampled--but the big discrepancy amongst guidance comes with the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 It does seem like a NW trend is beginning. Considering the last storm had many minor adjustments NW in the few days prior, it certainly seems possible for the Lower Great Lakes region to get in on this action. One can only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 It does seem like a NW trend is beginning. Considering the last storm had many minor adjustments NW in the few days prior, it certainly seems possible for the Lower Great Lakes region to get in on this action. One can only hope. I wouldn't go that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I wouldn't go that far. ya def not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I wouldn't go that far. I'm not saying that it means much, considering how far south and suppressed most of the models were as of this afternoon, but we've just seen two models make noticeable NW shifts. I have a feeling this will be a NW shift for most of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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