A-L-E-K Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I didn't think it was possible for the GFS to get any worse up here.. Just a matter of time until the gfs and euro meet in the middle leaving it nothing to see up here. I do really hope somebody can pull out the 6"+ storm yet to come I predicted for somewhere between here to LAF. North woods already got their big one out of the way. Detroit will be due again when this one rolls around. I really can't believe how our zone of the country has been snubbed by so many systems this winter. I mean I made out well with lake enhanced snow in January which REALLY bumped up my snow totals. But of all the tens and tens of systems that moved through this winter, we really only got "pounded" by two of them, with all the others leaving us right on the edge with a dustng or with a few snowflakes and mostly rain. Detroit has a lot more synoptic snow than us. In fact, they did better last winter with that too. I keep reminding myself to look at Chicago and see they only average 35 inches or so of snow, and then say realistically, this zone just isn't in a good spot for snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 0z GFS lol yesterday this was your expression for the 6z run, now the 0z run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 12z NAM's going to come in further south and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 NAM seems pretty weak, doesn't develop too much QPF until after hr 84 most likely judging by the sudden expansion of the precipitation on the SIM radar....looks like the weak low will take off to the NE around this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 9z SREF mean at 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Starting to look like a repeat of the current system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 NAM is an outlier... MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1108 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2011 VALID MAR 26/1200 UTC THRU MAR 30/0000 UTC 12Z NAM EVALUATION ...SYSTEM REACHING THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY... ...LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY EVENING... THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE 00Z CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE AS IT MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THE ENERGY FROM THIS WAVE EXITS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS LATE MONDAY...THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER RELATIVE TO THE 00Z GUIDANCE...DEPICTING A FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE...RESULTING IN A FASTER AND MORE SUPPRESSED PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 And the GFS caves... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 And the GFS caves... It's going to be squashed with this system, but the trailing s/w looks stronger. Maybe it tries to do something with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 All that energy coming ashore and this is what it becomes? what a waste as of right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 12z GFS is significantly further south and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I loled this morning reading GRR THE CURRENT VERSION OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD GIVE US ACCUMULATING SNOW.THIS SHOULD BE A WINDY STORM TOO. ANOTHER CONSIDERATION IS THAT TYPICALLY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME IN THE FORECAST CYCLE THE LOW ENDS UP TRACKING FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THE CURRENT MODELS SHOW. THUS IT MAY WELL END UP BEING A RAIN STORM FOR GRR AND SNOW STORM FOR ROUTE 10 AND NORTH BUT FOR NOW LETS NOT TRY TO GET TOO FAR AHEAD OF THE MODELS JUST YET. SO I WENT FOR ALL SNOW NOW AND CALLED THAT GOOD. WE SHALL SEE HOW THIS WORKS OUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 26, 2011 Author Share Posted March 26, 2011 Compare the 12z GFS to the 00z run and the differences are laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 If the GGEM comes in super amped, I'll lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I loled this morning reading GRR ha, I was going to post the same thing. Time after time WFOs have been falling back on the "NW trend" to justify their forecasts and then be subsequently burned. Truly think that bias has been worked out of the models. It was one thing when we had the -NAO/-AO blocking throughout 2009-10 and December of this winter to suggest the NW trend was only temporarily gone, but we've been out of that pattern for a few months now and if anything there's been a propensity amongst the models to be too far NW in the D3-7 time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Good 'Ole Consistent UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Euro QPF?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 26, 2011 Author Share Posted March 26, 2011 Euro QPF?? Might as well wait for the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Euro QPF?? You're forgetting about DST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 You're forgetting about DST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 You're forgetting about DST Oops lmfao... I just realized that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 weak, QPF is low and not worth sharing per Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 weak, QPF is low and not worth sharing per Euro Yeah... Looks suppressed solution to me on the euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 weak, QPF is low and not worth sharing per Euro Looks like it at least gets a primary up into E OH/W PA, which is better than what the GFS does. Even the GGEM looked like an improvement over its 0z run. Not close to throwing in the towel with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Looks like it at least gets a primary up into E OH/W PA, which is better than what the GFS does. Even the GGEM looked like an improvement over its 0z run. Not close to throwing in the towel with this one. YYZ: 0.23 DET: 0.14 ORD: 0.03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 YYZ: 0.23 DET: 0.14 ORD: 0.03 Enough to get me over 60". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Enough to get me over 60". Just enough to get us a top 5 season too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Sizeable shift south on the 15z SREFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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