cyclone77 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I may try and make a run up to Chicago for a little vacation time this week if the storm pans out. I have not taken any since getting this job almost 3 years ago. Time for a break and a snowy one at that. No vacation time in 3 years? Jesus. Yeah I think you need a break man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 lolz at the suppression of the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Yeah, I would knock down my grade for the winter if what the 00z GFS shows actually happens. I can't go through that twice, sorry. Fortunately it's just one run and four days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 lolz at the suppression of the GGEM Usually the GFS and GGEM are opposites, well they are here still but opposite of their usual opposites. got it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 lolz at the suppression of the GGEM It may end up being correct, but I've lost all faith (what little I had to begin with) in that model. It's been very inconsistent this season. It seemed to do better last winter, but that may be just a casual observation. The NAM and the Euro seem to be doing pretty well lately, so I'll lean more in their direction for now. The GFS hasn't been all that good lately IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 climo suggests NW trend is legit, although I thought the confluence downstream was a bit stronger this run. We'll have to see how those two features interact. Not really--just looks like it with the leftover shear vorticity created by the departing jet streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 If the GFSish solution pans out, it will get the honors for this storm for sniffing it out earliest (especially considering the Euro from yesterday and beyond) It may end up being correct, but I've lost all faith (what little I had to begin with) in that model. It's been very inconsistent this season. It seemed to do better last winter, but that may be just a casual observation. The NAM and the Euro seem to be doing pretty well lately, so I'll lean more in their direction for now. The GFS hasn't been all that good lately IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Not really--just looks like it with the leftover shear vorticity created by the departing jet streak. your thoughts on this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 lolz at the suppression of the GGEM It may end up being correct, but I've lost all faith (what little I had to begin with) in that model. It's been very inconsistent this season. It seemed to do better last winter, but that may be just a casual observation. The NAM and the Euro seem to be doing pretty well lately, so I'll lean more in their direction for now. The GFS hasn't been all that good lately IMO. For now I would not bother with the CMC--it is showing its weird bias of turbulent wave breakdown/decay as the shortwaves progress the intermountain W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 GGEM still in land of suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 your thoughts on this storm? Looks promising with the recent trends of all globals regarding the breakdown of the blocking. Bigger question is the amplitude and strength of the ejecting S/W. 0Z GFS shows positive feedback with that rather beefy low level theta-e regime--so small amplitude changes will have large changes as a result. Recent trends with models is they have been too amplified/strong with these Pacific cyclones as they depart the intermountain W and eject into the plains. Were I forecasting I wouldn't pull the trigger on anything yet. An amped solution is possible--but the beefy wave the GFS ejects is a bit suspect at this juncture. Another "if" is the leading weaker and low amplitude wave ejecting ahead of the main system. That could throw a wrench into things as well. For now a mix between the 18Z GFS type solution and the 12Z Euro would be a smart solution until seeing the 0Z GEFS/Euro ensemble. CMC I would toss for the aforementioned reasons for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Looks promising with the recent trends of all globals regarding the breakdown of the blocking. Bigger question is the amplitude and strength of the ejecting S/W. 0Z GFS shows positive feedback with that rather beefy low level theta-e regime--so small amplitude changes will have large changes as a result. Recent trends with models is they have been too amplified/strong with these Pacific cyclones as they depart the intermountain W and eject into the plains. Were I forecasting I wouldn't pull the trigger on anything yet. An amped solution is possible--but the beefy wave the GFS ejects is a bit suspect at this juncture. Another "if" is the leading weaker and low amplitude wave ejecting ahead of the main system. That could throw a wrench into things as well. For now a mix between the 18Z GFS type solution and the 12Z Euro would be a smart solution until seeing the 0Z GEFS/Euro ensemble. CMC I would toss for the aforementioned reasons for now. smart man, i've been slapped in the face enough with the over amplification on the models, i'd go with the weaker solution until all the models converge on a further north solution then i'd still hedge the low track further south. (all seriousness that blocking is of concern, the omega block pattern is going to argue for a further south solution) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 smart man, i've been slapped in the face enough with the over amplification on the models, i'd go with the weaker solution until all the models converge on a further north solution then i'd still hedge the low track further south. (all seriousness that blocking is of concern, the omega block pattern is going to argue for a further south solution) Well yeah--I should have said the recent trends regarding blocking are positive--but it is still a concern haha. But I agree--a lot of things can squash the potential wrapped beast storm at this juncture. Certainly a realistic threat though--start throwing in self-development/positive feedback and this could be a nail biter type of forecast till the bitter end haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 00Z UKMET: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 About as good of a run as u can ask for on the ukmet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 About as good of a run as u can ask for on the ukmet. I wouldn't mind it a tick Southeast but that isn't bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 that Ukmet run is getting close here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 26, 2011 Author Share Posted March 26, 2011 Hoosier FTW? I might be the key for you guys. Now I might have to find the person who brings LAF the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Euro through 72 looks much less ambitious with the ejecting wave than the GFS. Looks like it will stay similar to the 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Euro through 72 looks much less ambitious with the ejecting wave than the GFS. Looks like it will stay similar to the 12Z. A good deal south of the 12z run at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 A good deal south of the 12z run at the surface. Yeah I guess the shortwave is even less amplified. Will have to wait until 96 to see what it does--either way it isn't amped up like the GFS that is for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Honestly, I would not buy what the gfs is advertising....Gfs likes to overhype, and then at the end it ends up a rain storm.. not enough cold air.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Maybe another December 11-12, 2000 Some of the cpc analogs...ALL good snows here *February 22, 2010 - 7.7" *December 19, 2008 - 8.2" *March 5, 2008 - 10.3" *December 16, 2007 - 9.8" *February 12, 2008 - 4.1" *March 27, 2008 - 5.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I am talking about the city itself and more about the bigger events. I should have been more specific. Detroit was right on the border (they were expecting mostly sleet and ice) line of that 10 inch storm. Totals of 15-20 were found further west in the plains so detroit wasn't in the bullseye. Also the track of that storm was up in the air (more than most storms this winter) until it happened. As far as the bigger storms (8 inches plus) detroit hasn't gotten close to the bullseye. BY no means is this complaining, but just saying. Seems like this is getting nitpicky lol. We have not "sideswiped" our way to a nice winter. Detroit was the bullseye area of the region with the Feb 20th event. Also the Feb 5th event, though it wasnt 8+ inches. Detroit saw what, almost 3 feet while Chicago saw 3 inches since the GHD blizzard? If anything, Detroit is in the overall bullseye for moderate snowstorms as I dont think ANY area in our entire region other than metro-Detroit has seen seasonal snowfall eclipse 150% of average FIVE out of the last NINE winters. We need to get that damn epic storm already for everyone here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 LOL... Izzi with one of his gems. Another wall hanger. AFDLOT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1258 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011 .DISCUSSION... 310 PM CDT JANUARY-ESK WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE AD NAUSEAM WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND SPORADIC BOUTS OF LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS IF THE DISMAL WINTRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEKEND OF SPRING WASNT BAD ENOUGH...HAVE TO ACTUALLY DISCUSS WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEK... SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING THE WEATHER PICTURE IS PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DAMPENING SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED ACCUMULATING SNOW BYPASS OUR CWA WELL TO THE SOUTH. AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT LOCALLY FROM THIS SYSTEM. OTHERWISE WILL SEE THE POLAR VORTEX OVER EASTERN CANADA WOBBLE AROUND AND PULSATE SENDING WEAK RE-ENFORCEMENTS TO THE ALREADY VERY CHILLY AIRMASS IN PLACE. UNFORTUNATELY MESOSCALE...MORE SPECIFICALLY LAKE EFFECT...DETAILS ARE MORE TROUBLESOME. FAVORABLE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS SETS THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES OR POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW. MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR LAKE EFFECT SEEMS TO BE LATE NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS WHEN LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED...WITH FLURRIES/-SN CHANCES POSSIBLY PUSHING INLAND WITH AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES. DESPITE THE MENTION OF -SN OR FLURRIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXPECT ANY BOUTS OF SNOW TO BE MORE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE. BY FAR THE NICEST...OR PROBABLY MORE APPROPRIATELY WORDED LEAST MISERABLE...OF THE NEXT 5 DAYS LOOKS TO BE MONDAY. THE POLAR AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO LOOSEN ITS GRIPS EVER SO SLIGHTLY AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE WE COULD SEE TEMPS WARM TO *ONLY* SINGLE DIGIT VALUES BELOW AVERAGE (ABOVE 40F)! OF COURSE THIS RELATIVELY HEAT WAVE WILL BE FOR INLAND AREAS AS WINDS OFF THE LAKE PROBABLY HOLD TEMPS IN THE 30S. RELUCTANT TO EVEN BRING IT UP...PARTIALLY DUE TO DENIAL AND PARTIALLY DUE TO SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDWEST. ID BE REMISS TO NOT DISCUSS THE DIFFICULTIES IN SEEING A WINTER STORM THIS TIME OF YEAR AS HIGHER SUN ANGLE/INSOLATION MAKE ACCUMS DIFFICULT DURING THE DAYTIME AND WARM PAVEMENT/SOIL TEMPS ALSO MAKE ACCUMS MORE DIFFICULT. THOUGH NOT IMPOSSIBLE (SEE CHIPNSLOT)...CLIMO CERTAINLY ARGUES AGAINST A SIGNIFICANT SNOW THIS LATE IN THE SEASON...HOWEVER ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BOTH COME INTO LINE WITH A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM THAT WOULD DEFINITELY POSE A LATE SEASON SNOW STORM THREAT. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION AT THIS DISTANCE IS WHERE IT WILL TRACK AND JUST HOW STRONG IT WILL BE AND AT THIS DISTANCE ITD BE IRRESPONSIBLE TO LATCH ONTO A SINGLE MODEL OR ENSEMBLE SOLUTION. ABOUT THE ONLY THING CAN BE SAID WITH ANY DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE AT THIS DISTANCE IS THAT A STORM SYSTEM THAT BARES WATCHING COULD THREATEN THE REGION NEXT WEEK. JUST FOR GRINS AND GIGGLES COULD MENTION THAT THE ECMWF HAS ANOTHER POTENTIAL SNOW AFFECTING AREAS NEARBY BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND AS WINTER 2010-2011 SEEMINGLY STRUGGLES TO BECOME THE WINTER OF 2010-2011-2012! IZZI this was posted a few pages back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 this was posted a few pages back. oops, guess I should read the entire thread. Fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I didn't think it was possible for the GFS to get any worse up here.. Just a matter of time until the gfs and euro meet in the middle leaving it nothing to see up here. I do really hope somebody can pull out the 6"+ storm yet to come I predicted for somewhere between here to LAF. North woods already got their big one out of the way. Detroit will be due again when this one rolls around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 omaha wins on 6z gfs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Euro ends up with 1004 SLP on OH/PA border, not a lot of QPF for many...Generally in the 0.1-0.3 Range for many. This was a nice hit for then N/NE OH folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmountainwx Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 DSM LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL TEN TO HOLD BACK THE ONSET OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND LESSEN THE CHANCES OF ANY LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE EURO AND NAM ARE DRIER THAN THE GFS AND WILL LEAN WITH THE DRIER SOLUTIONS FOR NOW AS EAST WINDS CONTINUE TO HOLD DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVER IOWA THIS MORNING. ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME SUN TOMORROW ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40. LOWS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT OF A CHALLENGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION. NOT LONG AFTER THIS SHORT BREAK THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH STILL IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...A SIMILAR SETUP IS LIKELY WITH THE OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY OVERCOMING THE DRIER AIR OVER OUR AREA. GFS IS STILL RATHER ADAMANT WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL R/S CHANGING TO SNOW OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THE EURO MODEL HAS NOW PULLED THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH BY TUESDAY WITH THE ONLY SNOW OCCURRING IN IOWA FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...GENERALLY MOISTURE STARVED AND RATHER FAR REMOVED FROM THE H850 LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE GFS IS STILL PROJECTING NEARLY 8 INCHES IN DSM AND NEARLY 18 INCHES IN OTTUMWA. NEEDLESS TO SAY THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS...BUT AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AS THE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK IS NOW FAVORED WITH THE ONSET OF COLDER AIR OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT PLAINS FOLLOWING LAST WEEKS SVR WX OUTBREAK AND SUBSEQUENT BUCKLING OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. SO...LIKELY THAT ANY SNOW AMTS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN THE CURRENT GFS COBB OUTPUT SUGGESTS. WITH THAT COLDER TREND STILL IN MIND...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK UNTIL LATE...WHEN A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM AIR RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AND RASN MIX BY THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER BY LATE WEEK INTO THE 40S AND 50S ONCE THE WARM AIR ARRIVES ON FRIDAY. THOUGH THIS IS BASED ON BOTH EURO THICKNESS AND H850 TEMPS BY THAT TIME...THE GFS MEXMOS GUIDANCE ALSO PROJECTS HIGHS IN THE 50S OR LOWER 60S...THAT FOR AN INDEPENDENT COMPARISON. TOWARD THE END OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK THE LONG WAVE PATTER AGAIN SHIFTS BACK TO A MORE ZONAL REGIME...SO WARMER TEMPS AND A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY FOLLOW. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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