kab2791 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Euro is an improvement but it's weak east of IA it seems from looking at some cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Looks like from the freebee site, the euro atleast has a more organized storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Euro DSM: 0.52 ORD: 0.20: DET: 0.08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Euro DSM: 0.52 ORD: 0.20: DET: 0.08 lol bullseye. bring on opening day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Compared to 00Z, though pitiful, the Euro has trended toward the GFS camp lol bullseye. bring on opening day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Compared to 00Z, though pitiful, the Euro has trended toward the GFS camp Yup, although seems to be that as the models trend more robust with this storm, the D8 bomb potential fades some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Nice writeup by Izzi from "NWS ORD" RELUCTANT TO EVEN BRING IT UP...PARTIALLY DUE TO DENIAL AND PARTIALLY DUE TO SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDWEST. ID BE REMISS TO NOT DISCUSS THE DIFFICULTIES IN SEEING A WINTER STORM THIS TIME OF YEAR AS HIGHER SUN ANGLE/INSOLATION MAKE ACCUMS DIFFICULT DURING THE DAYTIME AND WARM PAVEMENT/SOIL TEMPS ALSO MAKE ACCUMS MORE DIFFICULT. THOUGH NOT IMPOSSIBLE (SEE CHIPNSLOT)...CLIMO CERTAINLY ARGUES AGAINST A SIGNIFICANT SNOW THIS LATE IN THE SEASON...HOWEVER ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BOTH COME INTO LINE WITH A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM THAT WOULD DEFINITELY POSE A LATE SEASON SNOW STORM THREAT. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION AT THIS DISTANCE IS WHERE IT WILL TRACK AND JUST HOW STRONG IT WILL BE AND AT THIS DISTANCE ITD BE IRRESPONSIBLE TO LATCH ONTO A SINGLE MODEL OR ENSEMBLE SOLUTION. ABOUT THE ONLY THING CAN BE SAID WITH ANY DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE AT THIS DISTANCE IS THAT A STORM SYSTEM THAT BARES WATCHING COULD THREATEN THE REGION NEXT WEEK. JUST FOR GRINS AND GIGGLES COULD MENTION THAT THE ECMWF HAS ANOTHER POTENTIAL SNOW AFFECTING AREAS NEARBY BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND AS WINTER 2010-2011 SEEMINGLY STRUGGLES TO BECOME THE WINTER OF 2010-2011-2012! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Nice writeup by Izzi from "NWS ORD" Chicago - LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Ooops...thanks for the correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 18z NAM at 84hr, 850mb low a bit further nw than the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 DVN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...TRENDS OF ALL SOLUTIONS PAST 24 HOURS AS LAST UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES NE INTO OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LOCAL TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES INDICATE .2 TO POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS .4 INCHES OF LWE TO FALL OVER SE 1/3 TO 1/2 PLUS OF FORECAST AREA. SNOW TO WATER RATIOS OF 15 TO 1 ARE SUGGESTED FOR AREAS OF 3 TO LOCALLY NEAR 6 INCHES SUGGESTED WITH NEAR 6 INCH AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY SE OF A STERLING TO MOLINE TO OTTUMWA AXIS. SINCE THIS IS SPRING AND DECELERATING JET PATTERN...EXPECT FURTHER CHANGES WITH JET STEAK LOCATION/S SUPPORTING CONFIRMATION ON AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE TO TAKE ANOTHER 36 TO PROBABLY 48 HOURS. KEY IS THIS AMOUNT OF SNOW IN SE SECTION TO HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS SINCE GROUND NOT EXCEPTIONALLY WET...MODERATE AT MOST WATER AMOUNTS AND WILL MELT AT MODERATE RATES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 18z GFS came in stronger and further north than the 12z run..and is a big hit for eastern IA/northern IL...DVN area picks up .75"+ liquid in 6hrs on this run which is all snow. next few runs of the models will certainly be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 18z GFS is a nice hit for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 18z GFS is a nice hit for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 70"+ for you, 60"+ for me. Would be a nice way to wind down winter. But if it doesn't materialize, no bitterness from me. It's been a very good winter with or without any more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 70"+ for you, 60"+ for me. Would be a nice way to wind down winter. But if it doesn't materialize, no bitterness from me. It's been a very good winter with or without any more snow. Yeah, either way its good. One hand nice snowstorm, on the other hand I don't have to drive home in a nightmare Tuesday Night if it misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 2 months ago this thread is on part II by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 2 months ago this thread is on part II by now. Winter fatigue, plus skepticism due to it being late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 2 months ago this thread is on part II by now. I think if/when we get better model agreement on a winter storm then it will ramp up a bit. Euro was an improvement with a nice hit for NE/western IA but weakens it quite a bit as it moves east. 0z runs tonight and 12z runs even more tomorrow should be a big help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 We could use a good 'ole ORD-DTW-YYZ special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 We could use a good 'ole ORD-DTW-YYZ special Indeed sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 If the northern Illinois area gets hit you all can thank me. I took the snow tires off today and mounted the summer tires. Probably jinxed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 We could use a good 'ole ORD-DTW-YYZ special Well said. Haven't had one of those. Long story short, that's what i meant earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 We could use a good 'ole ORD-DTW-YYZ special Maybe another December 11-12, 2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Maybe another December 11-12, 2000 I'm salivating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I'm salivating lol, I wouldn't count on it given the time of year. But when you mentioned that track, it was the first storm that popped to my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 bored so here's the 87hr 21z sref...fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 00Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 00Z NAM The sfc low on the NAM looks really displaced from the s/w, way south of it and weaker. The GFS has the sfc low much closer to s/w. I would assume the NAM would move the low quickly northeast if extrapolated. Also the NAM is a bit slower. The 12z run will show us a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Maybe another December 11-12, 2000 No, I just saw the NARR for that one. I'll take a wetter 2/22/2010 or 12/19/2008 please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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