Cheeznado Posted March 26, 2011 Author Share Posted March 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Here is my latest severe weather threat. Some moderate instability area across the N. MS through C. Alabama regions. Could see potential for 70-80KT winds and hail up to 1.5". Also have some indications of potential F1/F2 type tornadoes across this region. City Specific severe wx threat is at http://smartwxmodel.net/usa.jpg. Thoughts in these areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I'm almost positive we see a Moderate risk somewhere in MS/AL/GA. Could be some long-tracked tornadoes. UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING MORE PRECISE FRONTAL POSITION...BAND COVERAGE S OF FRONT...PRECLUDE PROBABILITIES SUPPORTING CATEGORICAL MDT RISK ATTM. HOWEVER...UPPER-END SLGT EASILY MAY BE UPGRADED ONCE SOME OF THESE UNCERTAINTIES ARE BETTER RESOLVED. It does look like SPC wants to upgrade some areas but will wait a little longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Definitely. I am almost tempted to go for sloppy seconds in SC/GA on Sunday just to see something. CAE .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THE MODELS KEEP THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NAM LI PATTERN SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE NEAR-ZONAL FLOW SUPPORTS SHOWERS. THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM SHOWS CROSS TOTALS IN THE MIDDLE 20S. THE MODELS INDICATE STRONG SHEAR WITH H85 WINDS 40 TO 45 KNOTS. IF THE FRONT HAPPENS TO BE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THEN ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE MORE SURFACE BASED AND POSSIBLY SEVERE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS HIGH SPREAD WITH THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER NAM MOS TEMPERATURES SINCE THIS MODEL USUALLY HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON FORECASTING A WEDGE PATTERN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING MORE PRECISE FRONTAL POSITION...BAND COVERAGE S OF FRONT...PRECLUDE PROBABILITIES SUPPORTING CATEGORICAL MDT RISK ATTM. HOWEVER...UPPER-END SLGT EASILY MAY BE UPGRADED ONCE SOME OF THESE UNCERTAINTIES ARE BETTER RESOLVED. It does look like SPC wants to upgrade some areas but will wait a little longer. huh I thought they would've by the time I woke up. Just heard the first distant rumble of thunder here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I'm not too sure about a Mod. risk here in N. Ga, but as long as that W to E oriented band of showers/embedded storms stays to the north of the Atlanta area, our chances will increase. I did have a couple of breaks in the clouds this morning, but it's still relatively cool. If we can get some good sun before 3 pm or so, could get nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 1630 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WILL BE UPGRADING PARTS OF NE MS AND CNTRL/NRN AL TO A MODERATE RISK. CATEGORICAL RISK WILL BE DRIVEN BY 15 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITIES. REFER TO GRAPHIC FOR DETAILED AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 SPCs new mod risk area looks pretty much like I thought, with the ever present Alabama/Georgia severe weather barrier in place!!! We're still in the game here, but need some clearing and rising temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 FYI I posted this in the central forum covering this topic http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/15975-severe-weather-thread-march-25-march-28/page__st__40 there is no rule as to where to post stuff, and in an outbreak there may be overlap between subforums. There really can't be a "cut off" because every outbreak is different. For example, An outbreak that starts in TX/LA and moves all the way to the east coast will of course start in the central forum...while an outbreak that starts in eastern AL with 90% of it into GA or SC will likley only have a thread in the SE subforum here is the thread for the SE forum, traditionary once storms cross into GA the posting go there no matter what. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/15857-severe-weather-threat-saturday-326/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0277 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SW/SCNTRL GA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 261633Z - 261730Z BROAD CONFLUENCE IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE WARM ADVECTION REGIME IMPINGING ON A RETREATING CP AIR MASS HAVE BEEN SUPPORTING DEEPENING CONVECTION OVER THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND SW GA THIS MORNING. ONE CELL HAS EVOLVED INTO A SUPERCELL OVER SW GA. LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO THRIVE IN A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SRN GA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 45 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL PRIMARILY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0276 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL/NERN MS...CNTRL/NRN AL...WCNTRL GA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 261625Z - 261800Z BAND OF CUMULUS OVER CNTRL MS APPEARS TO BE DEEPENING WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS HEATING INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. THIS MAY BE THE START OF AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE STORMS GRADUALLY EVOLVE ENE INTO CNTRL/NRN AL AND WCNTRL GA. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW IS GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY...THOUGH SPEED SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 DEG C PER KM AND MAGNITUDE OF VERTICAL SHEAR WILL YIELD VERY LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STORM. AS STORMS APPROACH THE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN VICINITY OF THE WARM/WEDGE FRONT ACROSS CNTRL/NRN AL AND WCNTRL GA...CONCERN IS FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO PRODUCE A FEW TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH FIRST SIGNS OF INITIATION ARE LIMITED TO MS...EXPECT THAT ADDITIONAL DISCRETE STORMS WILL FORM IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS CNTRL/SRN AL AND WCNTRL GA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 SPC ramping up their wording now. If you read the BMX wording on the updated discussion, they mention similarities between this setup and March 1994 which, in their words was "not a good day." Hope that scenario doesn't pan out for central Alabama. You can see clearing in EC Miss. and Western Alabama. Look for initiation just to the south where the rain cooled air from the am complex up north will intersect the warmer air to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Damn it I really wish I was out there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Looks like first cell has fired on the front, right on the MS/AL state line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGTim Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 .81 as of 12:45 pm here in Dahlonega. Weird West to East orientation on this one. Why is it doing that as opposed to the normal SW to NE orientation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 .81 as of 12:45 pm here in Dahlonega. Weird West to East orientation on this one. Why is it doing that as opposed to the normal SW to NE orientation? There is a stationary front aligned east-west serving as the focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Still socked in, and its only 55oF We need some sun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGTim Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 There is a stationary front aligned east-west serving as the focus. ok that makes sense. I sort of knew it was stationary but never have thought of why the difference in orientation. I guess when there is rotation around a low with a front the sw-ne orientation makes sense, but without that rotation, you are generally going to have the warmer air under the due South of colder air like we have today. good stuff, thanks. Another question. I am assuming you can't use the 850 zero line as reliably for snow this time of year because of the warmer mid and surface temps, whereas in mid-winter, chances of cold air all the way down the column are more common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 WWUS30 KWNS 261712 SAW2 SPC AWW 261712 WW 62 TORNADO AL GA 261715Z - 270100Z AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE.. 65NE MGR/MOULTRIE GA/ - 40W TCL/TUSCALOOSA AL/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM N/S /29WNW AMG - 19SSE IGB/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030. LAT...LON 30518301 31988830 34458830 32978301 THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS FOR WOU2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 very dangerous set up here as storm motions will take the storms right along the WF...(rather than moving them northeast over it) this front is over/will be over highly populated areas such as the BHM metro and the south side of Atlanta later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 62 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 115 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF LARGE PART OF ALABAMA A LARGE PART OF WESTERN GEORGIA EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 115 PM UNTIL 900 PM EDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF MOULTRIE GEORGIA TO 40 MILES WEST OF TUSCALOOSA ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA AS AIR MASS HAS BECOME MDTLY UNSTABLE IN A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY INCLUDING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS THRU THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND S OF E/W FRONTAL ZONE THRU NRN AL INTO CENTRAL GA. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG TORNADO BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 62 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 115 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF LARGE PART OF ALABAMA A LARGE PART OF WESTERN GEORGIA EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 115 PM UNTIL 900 PM EDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF MOULTRIE GEORGIA TO 40 MILES WEST OF TUSCALOOSA ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). This is only 2 counties to my South... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I'm a little surprised the watch extends into North GA. I was thinking the clouds and cool temps would keep the threat down. Hard to believe with temps in the 50s there's a threat for tornadoes and 3 inch hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 mulitple lines of developing discrete storms and developing supercells: one on the MS/AL state line another central AL, another eastern AL(sites on SW ATL metro) and yet another in SW GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 1st Severe Thunderstorm Warning THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... NORTHWESTERN MARENGO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... CENTRAL SUMTER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... * UNTIL 130 PM CDT * AT 1235 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR YORK...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Cell just north of Demopolis went tornado warned. First of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 1st Tornado warning out for the cell just north of Demopolis, AL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... SOUTHERN HALE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... NORTHWESTERN PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA... * UNTIL 200 PM CDT * AT 104 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DUFFYS BEND...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF DEMOPOLIS...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I can tell you guys that here in Columbus... It's going to be an active day. The humidity is the highest I have experienced since I've been here in late October, the clouds are building quickly, a few thunderstorms popping up... Let the games begin! (Yes, I'm at work ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Another Tornado Warning just issued for a cell NW of Birmingham. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... SOUTHERN WALKER COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA... * UNTIL 215 PM CDT * AT 123 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BOLEY SPRINGS...OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF CARBON HILL...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. Some weak rotation with this one. The more impressive one is just NE of Demopolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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