cast4 Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Thanks to all of you. I finally brought the board alive tonight with my controversial posts. I thought I was never going see a post again tonight in this region. Posts were going longer than 6-8 hours between posts. Thanks Ray for your determination to find the true temps for our area. We missed everything down here in Wayne too. Hopefully tomorrow or Friday will be our day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Thanks to all of you. I finally brought the board alive tonight with my controversial posts. I thought I was never going see a post again tonight in this region. Posts were going longer than 6-8 hours between posts. Thanks Ray for your determination to find the true temps for our area. Yeah, we'll see how long it lasts. There has definetely been a drier zone over northern Mont. Co and southern Lehigh Co the past month or so......yesterday I lucked out, maybe it's you today. I'm starting out at 71/70 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 78/73 here at 7:30 am. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAPPG Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Yeah, we'll see how long it lasts. There has definetely been a drier zone over northern Mont. Co and southern Lehigh Co the past month or so......yesterday I lucked out, maybe it's you today. I'm starting out at 71/70 this morning. Right! In the dry zone in NW montco. Nothing yesterday. Storms split off leaving us high and dry. I remember this has happened in other yrs as well. Praying for rain today. Hit 87 wednesday, so far 73/72 visability about 1.5 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShoreWXgal Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 81/76 here...humidity 86% ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Because 70-80% chance of thunderstorms has nothing to do with the areal coverage of precipitation? You can't verify probabilities from a single event. Wait, what? This post deserves some explanation. I think it means exactly that, it has everything to do with areal coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Wait, what? This post deserves some explanation. I think it means exactly that, it has everything to do with areal coverage. And you certainly can verify probabilities froma single event. You would obviously want a larger sample than n=1 to measure long-term accuracy, but if you predict 80% chance of thunderstorms and there aren't any, that's a verifiable bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Wait, what? This post deserves some explanation. I think it means exactly that, it has everything to do with areal coverage. No. If your point and click forecast has an 80% chance of precipitation (and the forecast is correct), 4 out of 5 times that forecast is issued, you'll see measurable precipitation. And you certainly can verify probabilities froma single event. You would obviously want a larger sample than n=1 to measure long-term accuracy, but if you predict 80% chance of thunderstorms and there aren't any, that's a verifiable bust. What? How do you know that particular day wasn't the 1 in 5 that won't see precipitation. You can't. You need a large enough sample of 80% POP days to know whether the forecaster is actually hitting 4 out of 5. The only way it can be a verifiable bust for a single day is if the POP was 100%. Even if the forecast was for a 95% chance, you'd still expect to see no precip 1 out of 20 days it was forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 No. If your point and click forecast has an 80% chance of precipitation (and the forecast is correct), 4 out of 5 times that forecast is issued, you'll see measurable precipitation. What? How do you know that particular day wasn't the 1 in 5 that won't see precipitation. You can't. You need a large enough sample of 80% POP days to know whether the forecaster is actually hitting 4 out of 5. The only way it can be a verifiable bust for a single day is if the POP was 100%. Even if the forecast was for a 95% chance, you'd still expect to see no precip 1 out of 20 days it was forecasted. So, the reason I responded is that you crapped on a non-forecaster like his point was total garbage - it wasn't. Your statementsare highly debatable. So maybe slow your roll a little bit before you crap on folks. Imagine there are 10 locations with an 80% chance of precipitation. You say, 4 out of 5 times that forecast will result in precipitation, which means it can only be verified with longitudinal data. I say if there are 10 places with that forecast and less than 8 get precip, it's a bust. Why am I worng? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Imagine there are 10 locations with an 80% chance of precipitation. You say, 4 out of 5 times that forecast will result in precipitation, which means it can only be verified with longitudinal data. I say if there are 10 places with that forecast and less than 8 get precip, it's a bust. Why am I worng? What you are describing is different than the POP for Macungie. When you read an AFD, there is a areal component to the coverage (e.g. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=pop ). When you are looking at a point and click, you're only looking at the "C" part of that equation. Either way, you cannot verify any probability (except 0 or 100, which is deterministic) based off a sample size of 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 What you are describing is different than the POP for Macungie. When you read an AFD, there is a areal component to the coverage (e.g. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=pop ). When you are looking at a point and click, you're only looking at the "C" part of that equation. Either way, you cannot verify any probability (except 0 or 100, which is deterministic) based off a sample size of 1. Wow- I did not expect all of this point - counter point discussion but it is refreshing to see a good lively discussion for a change. Also glad to see that "jane your ignorant slut" was not used in the discussion. By the way , the heavy precip split again today across our area- just dribbling outside. Maybe we will not hit 90 today in the western plains. By the way, my prayers go to those poor people in Minot ND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 I picked up 1.02" of rain this morning from a complex of storms. Now 76.5/71. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShoreWXgal Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 89/71 @1:30pm....air is so thick...we need rain BAD here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 85.5/75 I'm not sure what's thicker...the air outside, or the tension in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 I'm not sure what's thicker...the air outside, or the tension in here HA! 87/72 here at 4pm. Trace of rain since midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Is that a backdoor front or seabreeze front moving sOuth through nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Is that a backdoor front or seabreeze front moving sOuth through nj Ray said it's a backdoor front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Let me guess, no rain in Macungie today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Let me guess, no rain in Macungie today. Had enough of a shower early this morning to leave spots on the pollen covered car windows- i guess a trace would be an appropriate call. It did however not reach 90 degrees today -86 degrees today because of the extensive cloud cover. How can it be so frickin cloudy with little rain production for such a long stretch of time. I am so used to it being sunny in the morning with building towering cumulus in the late afternoon. I also miss the type of storms where it rains 1.5 inches around 2pm and by 4pm its sunny and even more humid outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Had enough of a shower early this morning to leave spots on the pollen covered car windows- i guess a trace would be an appropriate call. It did however not reach 90 degrees today -86 degrees today because of the extensive cloud cover. How can it be so frickin cloudy with little rain production for such a long stretch of time. I am so used to it being sunny in the morning with building towering cumulus in the late afternoon. I also miss the type of storms where it rains 1.5 inches around 2pm and by 4pm its sunny and even more humid outside. Yeah, I had 88 this afternoon, along with the passing shower this morning. There may be hope though, I just started to take down a 20 foot long, 3 foot high - brick retaining wall at my house, I need good. dry weather for awhile, I'm sure we'll get 5 inches of rain now that the project has started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Yeah, I had 88 this afternoon, along with the passing shower this morning. Guess what Parsley, those thundershowers to the west of us just may hold together long enough to give us some decent rain in the next two hours. Cross you fingers There may be hope though, I just started to take down a 20 foot long, 3 foot high - brick retaining wall at my house, I need good. dry weather for awhile, I'm sure we'll get 5 inches of rain now that the project has started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 88.1 today now down to 69.4, which would be nice except the DP is 67... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 88.1 today now down to 69.4, which would be nice except the DP is 67... That would be nice, except it's still 76/73 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 That would be nice, except it's still 76/73 here. Yuck. Oh well, at least it's not brush fire weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Yuck. Oh well, at least it's not brush fire weather Yup, thank god. I want no fire of any kind in this weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 You have a better shot than me over the next few hours. I'm just waiting for the radar to fizzle and lift north. We'll see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 did the mods wipe out a whole page of posts today or am I smokin something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 did the mods wipe out a whole page of posts today or am I smokin something? Looks like they did. Thanks Mods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Looks like they did. Thanks Mods Did you get any rain during the day today? Had about 0.20" in the late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Did you get any rain during the day today? Had about 0.20" in the late afternoon. About .25" here. Did exactly what a good summer day should have done- sunny in the morning by 2pm a thundershower then sunny again by 4 pm. Nice breeze this evening. Maybe a renegade shower or downpour tonight into tomorrow morning. Otherwise looks dry until wed. By the way- watch the tropics- the cold front will wash out and be the mechanism for tropical development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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