Kmlwx Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Too bad we can't surge that warm front northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The 09z SREF run off of SPC website for 00z tonight. Still highlighting that high supercell parameter area. That is interesting.. perhaps its because the WF will be nearby and it has them riding along it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 That is interesting.. perhaps its because the WF will be nearby and it has them riding along it? Still, unless we can really surge the warm front north they will likely be in a more elevated instability environment around here. Today has the feel of a dreary showers and drizzly day with no severe - at least around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 This seems to do a good job of showing where that front is - Sfc Frontogensis from SPC site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 my temp bust call might be a bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 my temp bust call might be a bust Can you bust calling a bust a bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Can you bust calling a bust a bust? ahh, yes.. the rare triple bust. dt likes those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 SW wind really picked up in the last 30 minutes gusting up to 20 mph ahead of a thin line of showers that developed just to my west. It moved through just wetting the ground and knocking the temp back down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 Jason's on board for the chase... target: Morgantown, WV. On the road in about an hour (still at work!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 LWX is putting SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. in their zones in the 1030 AM update. Looks like it gets to Howard Cty in MD as the northeastern edge as Baltimore city does not have that wording Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerWXman Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 SW wind really picked up in the last 30 minutes gusting up to 20 mph ahead of a thin line of showers that developed just to my west. It moved through just wetting the ground and knocking the temp back down. For the visual learners: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 LWX is putting SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. in their zones in the 1030 AM update. Looks like it gets to Howard Cty in MD I think the only places that don't have it in the wording now is Balto Co. Balto City and Harford. Anne Arundel has it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 12z HRRR is a slight improvement. Has at least moderate storms making it in a line fashion into the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I think the only places that don't have it in the wording now is Balto Co. Balto City and Harford. Anne Arundel has it as well. Makes me think that the WF will get to about there... which would support the 09z SREFs if correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Updated AFD as of 1045 AM from LWX NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --WARM FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ATMOSPHERE BEGINNING TO MIX ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHILE ACROSS THE NE CWFA...A COOL WEDGE IN PLACE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL SET UP THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DO THINK THE AREA MOST LIKELY FOR THE WARM FRONT TO SET UP IS FROM NORTHWEST MARYLAND...THROUGH THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN VIRGINIA PIEDMONT. IN OTHER WORDS...CLOSELY ORIENTED NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWFA. HAVE LARGE HAIL WORDING IN MOST OF THE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH OF WHERE THE WARM FRONT MAY SET UP. SURFACE BASED STORMS DO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF GOING ELEVATED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...THUS THE POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST. IF THERE IS ONE AREA WHERE THE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THE LEAST...IT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST MARYLAND...INTO PORTIONS OF LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 where's ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Mainly for our WV people.. but perhaps some of this might translate to us later if we get lucky [/url] http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md0255.html MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0255 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL-ERN KY...ERN IND...OH...WV CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 231602Z - 231730Z A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS ERN IND...CNTRL-ERN KY...OH AND WV THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIKELY AS STORMS INITIATE AND EXPAND QUICKLY IN COVERAGE. A TORNADO WATCH SHOULD BE NECESSARY OVER THE 1 TO 2 HOURS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 998 MB LOW NEAR INDIANAPOLIS WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CNTRL OH. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 250 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE FROM WV WWD ACROSS KY INTO SRN IND WHERE A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND NEAR THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IN ERN IND...SW OH AND NCNTRL KY BY 18Z WHICH THE 14Z HRRR AGREES WITH. RAPID DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 75 TO 85 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTING ENEWD OUT OF THE MID-MS VALLEY SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALREADY IN PLACE SHOULD SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH DISCRETE ROTATING STORMS. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE FAST EWD STORM MOTIONS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS. ..BROYLES.. 03/23/2011 ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK... IWX...IND...PAH... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I think we will not get a watch but instead garden variety storms with pea sized hail in a few spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Mainly for our WV people.. but perhaps some of this might translate to us later if we get lucky http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md0255.html MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0255 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL-ERN KY...ERN IND...OH...WV CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 231602Z - 231730Z A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS ERN IND...CNTRL-ERN KY...OH AND WV THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIKELY AS STORMS INITIATE AND EXPAND QUICKLY IN COVERAGE. A TORNADO WATCH SHOULD BE NECESSARY OVER THE 1 TO 2 HOURS. Well if the sun comes back out after this batch of showers, it will set the stage. Timing looks good for max heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 1630 OTLK moves the 2% TOR to our doorstep -- Blue Ridge and west. At 1300, it was Apps and west. The 5% Tor moves into extreme Western VA (think Highland county) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Tornado Watch just went out for most of WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0055.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 55 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 115 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN INDIANA MUCH OF KENTUCKY EXTREME WESTERN MARYLAND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 115 PM UNTIL 900 PM EDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 160 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF ZANESVILLE OHIO TO 60 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...ALONG AND ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...MULTIPLE BROKEN BANDS OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT COUPLED WITH VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...THE DEVELOPMENT OF BOTH SEMI-DISCRETE/SPLITTING SUPERCELLS AND BOWS ARE PROBABLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS...BUT A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Tornado Watch just went out for most of WV Thats a big watch box... TN/KY Border to Pittsburg, Indy to Garret County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Low 60's now in the Shenandoah valley down neat SHD and mid 40's here. Gee I wonder where the front is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Thats a big watch box... TN/KY Border to Pittsburg, Indy to Garret County. I can't see the whole thing yet...NOAAs page hasn't updated yet. Sky cleared out during lunch time...full sun now heating things up. 71/60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I can't see the whole thing yet...NOAAs page hasn't updated yet. Sky cleared out during lunch time...full sun now heating things up. 71/60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 There's a line developing west of Huntington moving quickly east. This looks like a day of multiple lines developing and moving through. I'm sure that will affect the severe level if recovery time isn't there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 Jason and I are in Cumberland for food and gas... still heading towards Morgantown. Good to see things are still on the up and up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Jason and I are in Cumberland for food and gas... still heading towards Morgantown. Good to see things are still on the up and up. Do you have a link to your GPS chase map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Jason and I are in Cumberland for food and gas... still heading towards Morgantown. Good to see things are still on the up and up. Be prepared for some dense fog on Big Savage Mtn, it is nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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