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April 1-3 Late Season Threat


Ralph Wiggum

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Just doing a straight compromise between the GFS and EC, which both bomb the system but have considerably differing tracks, it would be rain to very sloppy wet snow for I-95.

I think a 0z Euro/6z GFS blend is probably the best solution right now... which means Philly metro is going to be holding their breath. The ensembles are still showing a pretty wide spread for this far out, so there isn't much help there except that this is a high bust potential forecast.

track.aeperts.2011032900.east_coast.single.gif

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Between teh Phillies opener and prom Friday, I have several people who want my head if it rains/snows Friday. For probably the only time in my life I'm actually rooting for the OTS track.

Because of that you can expect a HECS.

Saturday is first day of trout season in SE Pa. Heavy rain would be worst outcome, then snow, light precip or dry would be best.

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seriously??? wow!!

110331/2100Z 63 08008KT 45.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110401/0000Z 66 07007KT 38.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110401/0300Z 69 06012KT 36.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.012|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110401/0600Z 72 03013KT 34.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.264|| 0.28 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 9| 0| 91

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110401/0900Z 75 02016KT 32.5F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.287|| 0.57 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 85| 0| 15

110401/1200Z 78 34015KT 32.2F SNOW 20:1|11.5||11.5 0.567|| 1.14 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0

110401/1500Z 81 32014KT 32.4F SNOW 6:1| 1.3||12.8 0.213|| 1.35 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 82| 0| 18

110401/1800Z 84 29011KT 32.9F RASN 0:1| 0.0||12.8 0.071|| 1.42 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 38| 0| 62

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110401/2100Z 87 28010KT 33.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0||12.8 0.051|| 1.47 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 7| 0| 93

110402/0000Z 90 28009KT 33.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0||12.8 0.016|| 1.49 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110402/0300Z 93 28009KT 30.4F 0:1| 0.0||12.8 0.000|| 1.49 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110402/0600Z 96 28009KT 27.1F 0:1| 0.0||12.8 0.000|| 1.49 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

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110331/2100Z 63 08008KT 45.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110401/0000Z 66 07007KT 38.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110401/0300Z 69 06012KT 36.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.012|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110401/0600Z 72 03013KT 34.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.264|| 0.28 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 9| 0| 91

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110401/0900Z 75 02016KT 32.5F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.287|| 0.57 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 85| 0| 15

110401/1200Z 78 34015KT 32.2F SNOW 20:1|11.5||11.5 0.567|| 1.14 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0

110401/1500Z 81 32014KT 32.4F SNOW 6:1| 1.3||12.8 0.213|| 1.35 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 82| 0| 18

110401/1800Z 84 29011KT 32.9F RASN 0:1| 0.0||12.8 0.071|| 1.42 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 38| 0| 62

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110401/2100Z 87 28010KT 33.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0||12.8 0.051|| 1.47 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 7| 0| 93

110402/0000Z 90 28009KT 33.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0||12.8 0.016|| 1.49 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110402/0300Z 93 28009KT 30.4F 0:1| 0.0||12.8 0.000|| 1.49 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110402/0600Z 96 28009KT 27.1F 0:1| 0.0||12.8 0.000|| 1.49 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

11.5" of that falls with supposed 20:1 ratios, so no, not really a foot of snow.

0.567" QPF does not equal 11.5" in April with a 2m temp of 32.2°

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