Parsley Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Wow, the way the PHL and NYC forums read today, you'd think neither area has had over 5 inches of snow all winter! Its spring, the birds are chirping, the perennials are emerging, love should be in the air (along with pollen). Ok, back on topic....threat is there for late week, especially in the higher elevations where it snowed last week. If people are jonesen that bad for snow, drive 90 miles north of Philly or 60 miles west of NYC on Friday. You'll likely get your fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Wow, the way the PHL and NYC forums read today, you'd think neither area has had over 5 inches of snow all winter! Its spring, the birds are chirping, the perennials are emerging, love should be in the air (along with pollen). Ok, back on topic....threat is there for late week, especially in the higher elevations where it snowed last week. If people are jonesen that bad for snow, drive 90 miles north of Philly or 60 miles west of NYC on Friday. You'll likely get your fix. Yea, half tempted to crash at a retired members house for the weeks end and maybe get in a late season snowboard session with fresh stuff falling. Not sure how conditions were up at some of he slopes that opened last weekend though. Will be interesting to see if the models come to a better agreement as far as what to do with the multiple ahortwavea in play here. Still some spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Yeah, you belong in the western forum. Is there even anyone in there? There's no one who cares about Elko weather... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Is there even anyone in there? There's no one who cares about Elko weather... i do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Anyway, back on topic for now... having finally gotten a look at the 18Z GFS soundings, they are rain (just barely) at TTN on Thursday night/Friday morning. And by barely I mean by the skin of my teeth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duality Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Anyway, back on topic for now... having finally gotten a look at the 18Z GFS soundings, they are rain (just barely) at TTN on Thursday night/Friday morning. And by barely I mean by the skin of my teeth.better brush them then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 side note... I see Glenn is back from vacation.. just in time for upcoming _ _ _ _. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Wow, the way the PHL and NYC forums read today, you'd think neither area has had over 5 inches of snow all winter! Its spring, the birds are chirping, the perennials are emerging, love should be in the air (along with pollen). Ok, back on topic....threat is there for late week, especially in the higher elevations where it snowed last week. If people are jonesen that bad for snow, drive 90 miles north of Philly or 60 miles west of NYC on Friday. You'll likely get your fix. That's about right where I am located... still looking good for a snowfall? A lot of conflicting info out there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Wow at GFS.... don't have ability to post image, but wow... Runs I-95 and bombs.. State college ftw. H5 is gorgeous( could be a bit more east) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 978 mb over PHL at 84 hours on the new GFS. As suggested by the track, looks like mainly rain for I-95, but quite a lot of rain and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Surface not so much the problem on the GFS for ABE but the 850 level warms up to +1.3 FRI 06Z 01-APR 0.7 1.2 992 98 100 0.50 541 547 FRI 12Z 01-APR 1.0 0.3 980 99 97 0.57 522 540 FRI 18Z 01-APR 1.6 -3.1 978 96 96 0.24 518 537 SAT 00Z 02-APR -0.8 -3.9 985 97 89 0.06 522 534 All and all i think the GFS is on the right track with the more amped up system ..however i think its a little too amped up which makes it a little too far west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Surface not so much the problem on the GFS for ABE but the 850 level warms up to +1.3 FRI 06Z 01-APR 0.7 1.2 992 98 100 0.50 541 547 FRI 12Z 01-APR 1.0 0.3 980 99 97 0.57 522 540 FRI 18Z 01-APR 1.6 -3.1 978 96 96 0.24 518 537 SAT 00Z 02-APR -0.8 -3.9 985 97 89 0.06 522 534 All and all i think the GFS is on the right track with the more amped up system ..however i think its a little too amped up which makes it a little too far west... With the positive NAO, it does make some sense that it tries to cut inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 00z GFS means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 With the positive NAO, it does make some sense that it tries to cut inland. I think it would make sense if we actually had a positive NAO. However currently we have a negative NAO and part and partial why i believe a amped up system is more likely has to do with the fact that it is expected to rise from its negative state up into and towards the positive state . This storm should essentially be a pattern changer for a short duration of time..perhaps 7-10 day period where it will get warmer. There after we should get colder and below normal once again (mid April?) but thats another topic... Presently we have a negative NAO and is expected to rise to neutral over the next 7 days.. FWIW the 00z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I think it would make sense if we actually had a positive NAO. However currently we have a negative NAO and part and partial why i believe a amped up system is more likely has to do with the fact that it is expected to rise from its negative state up into and towards the positive state . This storm should essentially be a pattern changer for a short duration of time..perhaps 7-10 day period where it will get warmer. There after we should get colder and below normal once again (mid April?) but thats another topic... Alan's pages show a somewhat different prog for the NAO... showing it go positive on the GFS, EC and their respective ensembles on the 30th. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/12zNAOcomparison.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 FWIW 96 hr GGEM which shows a pretty amped system as well but not inland.. UKMET has definitely now toned down the system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Euro perfect track, hard to tell how much precipitation being thrown back...994ish just inside te BM.. hr84. No closed H5 unlike GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I have not seen the images yet but i can say that the ECM is not anywhere within the realms of the rest of the guidance... ABE FRI 12Z 01-APR 1.3 -1.7 1004 80 95 0.05 538 535 FRI 18Z 01-APR 6.2 -2.4 1000 64 80 0.10 534 534 SAT 00Z 02-APR 3.8 -1.3 999 78 90 0.01 533 534 SAT 06Z 02-APR 0.3 -1.3 998 87 85 0.00 531 533 PHL FRI 12Z 01-APR 2.0 -0.6 1002 96 98 0.13 539 537 FRI 18Z 01-APR 5.0 -1.7 1000 80 74 0.10 535 535 SAT 00Z 02-APR 4.0 -0.5 999 85 80 0.01 534 535 SAT 06Z 02-APR 2.8 -0.6 998 88 87 0.00 533 535 At least for this region ...for NYC yes ...but even there the temps are warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I have not seen the images yet but i can say that the ECM is not anywhere within the realms of the rest of the guidance... ABE FRI 12Z 01-APR 1.3 -1.7 1004 80 95 0.05 538 535 FRI 18Z 01-APR 6.2 -2.4 1000 64 80 0.10 534 534 SAT 00Z 02-APR 3.8 -1.3 999 78 90 0.01 533 534 SAT 06Z 02-APR 0.3 -1.3 998 87 85 0.00 531 533 PHL FRI 12Z 01-APR 2.0 -0.6 1002 96 98 0.13 539 537 FRI 18Z 01-APR 5.0 -1.7 1000 80 74 0.10 535 535 SAT 00Z 02-APR 4.0 -0.5 999 85 80 0.01 534 535 SAT 06Z 02-APR 2.8 -0.6 998 88 87 0.00 533 535 At least for this region ...for NYC yes ...but even there the temps are warm Very tight gradient. Scranton .25"- NYC Bout 1.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Very tight gradient. Scranton .25"- NYC Bout 1.25" I think it has nothing to do with a tight gradient ..has more to do with it does not develop the storm until way past the area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I think it has nothing to do with a tight gradient ..has more to do with it does not develop the storm until way past the area... 72, there's a 1004mb low by the carolina's...Trough is neutral, maybe slight neg, but 78 is when it goes noticeably neg. Seems like the euro is faster in that sense with the shortwave. Getting more in line in regard to a bigger 2nd system,. All we can ask for at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I think these images show it better Very weak and elongated and disorganized.. Sometime within these hours (past this region) it decides to consolidate and that would probably be about 12 hrs from the 72 hr marker,, Coming from the GOM /SE region...not likely IMHO ... ECM is playing catchup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I think these images show it better Very weak and elongated and disorganized.. Sometime within these hours (past this region) it decides to consolidate and that would probably be about 12 hrs from the 72 hr marker,, Coming from the GOM /SE region...not likely IMHO ... ECM is playing catchup I'm relatively new at this. I'm wondering if it's common for an elongated low like that to consolidate so quickly and go from a 1004mb to 977mb. Seems like it strengthens rather quickly given the distance and first map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 ECM is playing catchup Given that it just now figured out that little to no precip will likely make it into this region (on 3/30-31), that seems a reasonable assumption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I'm relatively new at this. I'm wondering if it's common for an elongated low like that to consolidate so quickly and go from a 1004mb to 977mb. Thats a drop of 27 MBS in 24 hrs.... If this would be hurricane season that would be what we consider RI or Rapid Intensification. Is it possible? Yes it is possible..is it likely? Probably not. I would say 977 mbs is definitely to deep.. I say the same thing in regards to the GFS being to deep which is AMPED up to 977 but further west... Experience leads me to believe that this will be more consolidated at 72 hrs down by Hatteras...and then deepen as it moves up the east coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I'm relatively new at this. I'm wondering if it's common for an elongated low like that to consolidate so quickly and go from a 1004mb to 977mb. Seems like it strengthens rather quickly given the distance and first map. Bombogenesis: pressure dropping 24mb in 24hrs.. It's been the norm te last 2winters :-} Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Thats a drop of 27 MBS in 24 hrs.... If this would be hurricane season that would be what we consider RI or Rapid Intensification. Is it possible? Yes it is possible..is it likely? Probably not. I would say 977 mbs is definitely to deep.. I say the same thing in regards to the GFS being to deep which is AMPED up to 977 but further west... Experience leads me to believe that this will be more consolidated at 72 hrs down by Hatteras...and then deepen as it moves up the east coast... Thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Bombogenesis: pressure dropping 24mb in 24hrs.. It's been the norm te last 2winters :-} Well I'm familiar with tropical systems, but just started following winter weather. Kind of backwards since I've snowboarded for 16 years. It didn't look right with the elongated low winding up so amped since it needs time to tighten up before bombogenesis can happen. At least that's my take with my limited knowledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Just doing a straight compromise between the GFS and EC, which both bomb the system but have considerably differing tracks, it would be rain to very sloppy wet snow for I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Just doing a straight compromise between the GFS and EC, which both bomb the system but have considerably differing tracks, it would be rain to very sloppy wet snow for I-95. It looks like the GFS intensifies the storm more quickly over the SE, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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