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April 1-3 Late Season Threat


Ralph Wiggum

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euro is still giving love to the 1st storm. Hard to believe it will be wrong at this point in the game

Precip looks pretty light and sfc temps are mid 30s so I tend to think its either rain or non-accumulating snow on the EC verbatim along I-95.

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Precip looks pretty light and sfc temps are mid 30s so I tend to think its either rain or non-accumulating snow on the EC verbatim along I-95.

i dont know about that..euro gaves dulles .81 qpf with temps at 32 and 850 temps at -2

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Pazzo......friendly advice....watch it in this forum as well......this forum isn't without its crazed weenies who see snow around every corner and absolutely refuse to listen to or acknowledge anybody that says anything to the contrary.

Right now we have a borderline MECS for NJ and the interior getting "buried" as the call from that forum.

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EC gets you down to 34F with perhaps as much as 0.2" while its down that low... so verbatim you could get a very sloppy coating or inch.

SREF is drier but also colder, so essentially implies the same thing for you... a sloppy coating or inch.

Along I-95 it keeps temps above freezing (if just by a degree) and 6-hour precip is less than 0.10"... so probably no accumulation.

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Pazzo......friendly advice....watch it in this forum as well......this forum isn't without its crazed weenies who see snow around every corner and absolutely refuse to listen to or acknowledge anybody that says anything to the contrary.

Oh I know, I was for years with MD/DC/VA crowd with the likes of Ji. Thing is, Ji doesn't take himself seriously so the back and forth with him is just amusing.

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From Mt Holly AFD

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY CARRIES THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY (AND POTENTIALIMPACT) FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE 1200 UTC GFS DROPS A SHORT WAVEINTO THE LOW WAVE PATTERN AND SPINS UP A STRONG SURFACE LOW THATAFFECTS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

THIS MODEL SOLUTION IS

COLD AND COULD PRODUCE PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEMS FOR THE FORECAST

AREA (EVEN ACROSS THE SOUTH).HOWEVER...THE 1200 UTC GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS APPEARS TO BE ANOUTLIER...WHEN CONSIDERING THE OVERALL ENSEMBLE PACKAGE. THIS

FORECAST WILL BE BASED MORE ON THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION.THIS SOLUTION IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND WOULD TEND TO SUPPRESS MOST OF

THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION TOTHE SOUTH.AGAIN...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND CHANGES ARE

INEVITABLE UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEAR WHICH MODEL SOLUTION(S) CAN SORT

OUT THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT. THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR ASIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.THIS FORECAST WILL CARRY THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO

FRIDAY NIGHT. THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH MAY STILLBE IN QUESTION...AND FOR NOW MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. FURTHER

NORTH...WHERE THE COLD AIR REMAINS DEEPER...AN ACCUMULATING SNOW IS

POSSIBLE...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN

QUESTION.

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Outside of Ji the Mid-Atlantic sub-forum is the most realistic bunch on this whole board. They acknowledge that not every snowstorm shown on a model is going to come to fruition and I genuinely think they have the least amount of wishcasting out there. The sad fact is that Ji skews everybody's reality about what that group as a whole has to say and he is usually in his own world.

Oh I know, I was for years with MD/DC/VA crowd with the likes of Ji. Thing is, Ji doesn't take himself seriously so the back and forth with him is just amusing.

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Outside of Ji the Mid-Atlantic sub-forum is the most realistic bunch on this whole board. They acknowledge that not every snowstorm shown on a model is going to come to fruition and I genuinely think they have the least amount of wishcasting out there. The sad fact is that Ji skews everybody's reality about what that group as a whole has to say and he is usually in his own world.

We're just the most used to getting screwed, so that breeds a sense of reality in that group.

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In fairness, there are probably a fair number of them (in the NYC forum) who'd really like to see 95-96 go by the wayside and this winter to be their number 1. After missing out last season (relatively speaking) and then getting close but perhaps no cigar this season, they probably feel ripped off, somehow :arrowhead:

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SREF is drier but also colder, so essentially implies the same thing for you... a sloppy coating or inch.

Along I-95 it keeps temps above freezing (if just by a degree) and 6-hour precip is less than 0.10"... so probably no accumulation.

thanks for the sloppy update ray ;)

oh ps.. JB was all amped up at weatherbell... big surprise...

last few free JB days so Thursday he will probably say .. snow map coming Friday ;)

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GFS just does not look all that realistic...2 wound up lows just 36-48 hours apart...not impossible but usually that does not verify...looks like the GFS is having huge issues with figuring out timing with the low development.

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In fairness, there are probably a fair number of them (in the NYC forum) who'd really like to see 95-96 go by the wayside and this winter to be their number 1. After missing out last season (relatively speaking) and then getting close but perhaps no cigar this season, they probably feel ripped off, somehow :arrowhead:

Yeah we've really missed out, it's tough getting back-to-back 70" winters here in Dobbs Ferry with back-to-back 50"+ winters for Central Park and this probably finishing the third snowiest on record. Weenies haven't had much to cheer for lately devilsmiley.gif

NYC could see accumulating snow out of the Friday storm as the models are showing a <534dm cut-off in the Northeast. The problem with the 18z GFS is that it cuts off the low too late and tracks the H5 energy over the Adirondacks, with the surface low south of Long Island's Twin Forks. We need the 500mb low to close earlier and to have the surface low a bit further east, preferably about 50 miles off of Montauk. NNJ and E PA, especially the higher elevations, would do very well in the 18z GFS scenario, and Philly might see some snow on the backend with a closed 700mb low tracking from Toms River to LI. But it won't be much for PHL unless the upper levels develop faster and further east, otherwise this is just a slop storm.

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Yeah we've really missed out, it's tough getting back-to-back 70" winters here in Dobbs Ferry with back-to-back 50"+ winters for Central Park and this probably finishing the third snowiest on record. Weenies haven't had much to cheer for lately devilsmiley.gif

NYC could see accumulating snow out of the Friday storm as the models are showing a <534dm cut-off in the Northeast. The problem with the 18z GFS is that it cuts off the low too late and tracks the H5 energy over the Adirondacks, with the surface low south of Long Island's Twin Forks. We need the 500mb low to close earlier and to have the surface low a bit further east, preferably about 50 miles off of Montauk. NNJ and E PA, especially the higher elevations, would do very well in the 18z GFS scenario, and Philly might see some snow on the backend with a closed 700mb low tracking from Toms River to LI. But it won't be much for PHL unless the upper levels develop faster and further east, otherwise this is just a slop storm.

Did you see the post where I compared what you do to us as similar to what Forky does to SNE? ;)

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