NaoPos Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 108, 996 east of bm, barely ... Sne getting mod precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 euro is still giving love to the 1st storm. Hard to believe it will be wrong at this point in the game Precip looks pretty light and sfc temps are mid 30s so I tend to think its either rain or non-accumulating snow on the EC verbatim along I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Precip looks pretty light and sfc temps are mid 30s so I tend to think its either rain or non-accumulating snow on the EC verbatim along I-95. i dont know about that..euro gaves dulles .81 qpf with temps at 32 and 850 temps at -2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 i dont know about that..euro gaves dulles .81 qpf with temps at 32 and 850 temps at -2 I meant THIS thread's I-95 coverage area. Not DC land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I meant THIS thread's I-95 coverage area. Not DC land. It's feeling eastern again, good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I meant THIS thread's I-95 coverage area. Not DC land. for a second i thought i was in the mid atlantic forum thanks for the adjustment ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 for a second i thought i was in the mid atlantic forum thanks for the adjustment ray EC gets you down to 34F with perhaps as much as 0.2" while its down that low... so verbatim you could get a very sloppy coating or inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 It's feeling eastern again, good times. I think JI and Nzucker are the Forky's of our area, taunting us when it looks like they might get snow but we probably won't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I think JI and Nzucker are the Forky's of our area, taunting us when it looks like they might get snow but we probably won't Makes it all the better when they don't get snow, like the rest of us, and cry like babies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I think JI and Nzucker are the Forky's of our area, taunting us when it looks like they might get snow but we probably won't The NYC forum is really becoming ridiculous. I might just start posting in this forum. NYC and Philly are less than 100 miles apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Now now, boys, lets not go bashing the NYC forum again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Now now, boys, lets not go bashing the NYC forum again... Leave them be, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Leave them be, please. Right now we have a borderline MECS for NJ and the interior getting "buried" as the call from that forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Pazzo......friendly advice....watch it in this forum as well......this forum isn't without its crazed weenies who see snow around every corner and absolutely refuse to listen to or acknowledge anybody that says anything to the contrary. Right now we have a borderline MECS for NJ and the interior getting "buried" as the call from that forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 well look who is on the wagon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 well look who is on the wagon You realize this is the kiss of death, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 EC gets you down to 34F with perhaps as much as 0.2" while its down that low... so verbatim you could get a very sloppy coating or inch. SREF is drier but also colder, so essentially implies the same thing for you... a sloppy coating or inch. Along I-95 it keeps temps above freezing (if just by a degree) and 6-hour precip is less than 0.10"... so probably no accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Pazzo......friendly advice....watch it in this forum as well......this forum isn't without its crazed weenies who see snow around every corner and absolutely refuse to listen to or acknowledge anybody that says anything to the contrary. Oh I know, I was for years with MD/DC/VA crowd with the likes of Ji. Thing is, Ji doesn't take himself seriously so the back and forth with him is just amusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 From Mt Holly AFD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY CARRIES THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY (AND POTENTIALIMPACT) FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE 1200 UTC GFS DROPS A SHORT WAVEINTO THE LOW WAVE PATTERN AND SPINS UP A STRONG SURFACE LOW THATAFFECTS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MODEL SOLUTION IS COLD AND COULD PRODUCE PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEMS FOR THE FORECAST AREA (EVEN ACROSS THE SOUTH).HOWEVER...THE 1200 UTC GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS APPEARS TO BE ANOUTLIER...WHEN CONSIDERING THE OVERALL ENSEMBLE PACKAGE. THIS FORECAST WILL BE BASED MORE ON THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION.THIS SOLUTION IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND WOULD TEND TO SUPPRESS MOST OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION TOTHE SOUTH.AGAIN...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND CHANGES ARE INEVITABLE UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEAR WHICH MODEL SOLUTION(S) CAN SORT OUT THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT. THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR ASIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.THIS FORECAST WILL CARRY THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH MAY STILLBE IN QUESTION...AND FOR NOW MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. FURTHER NORTH...WHERE THE COLD AIR REMAINS DEEPER...AN ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN QUESTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Outside of Ji the Mid-Atlantic sub-forum is the most realistic bunch on this whole board. They acknowledge that not every snowstorm shown on a model is going to come to fruition and I genuinely think they have the least amount of wishcasting out there. The sad fact is that Ji skews everybody's reality about what that group as a whole has to say and he is usually in his own world. Oh I know, I was for years with MD/DC/VA crowd with the likes of Ji. Thing is, Ji doesn't take himself seriously so the back and forth with him is just amusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Outside of Ji the Mid-Atlantic sub-forum is the most realistic bunch on this whole board. They acknowledge that not every snowstorm shown on a model is going to come to fruition and I genuinely think they have the least amount of wishcasting out there. The sad fact is that Ji skews everybody's reality about what that group as a whole has to say and he is usually in his own world. We're just the most used to getting screwed, so that breeds a sense of reality in that group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 In fairness, there are probably a fair number of them (in the NYC forum) who'd really like to see 95-96 go by the wayside and this winter to be their number 1. After missing out last season (relatively speaking) and then getting close but perhaps no cigar this season, they probably feel ripped off, somehow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 my sources tell me that we will likely get a foot of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 SREF is drier but also colder, so essentially implies the same thing for you... a sloppy coating or inch. Along I-95 it keeps temps above freezing (if just by a degree) and 6-hour precip is less than 0.10"... so probably no accumulation. thanks for the sloppy update ray oh ps.. JB was all amped up at weatherbell... big surprise... last few free JB days so Thursday he will probably say .. snow map coming Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 GFS just does not look all that realistic...2 wound up lows just 36-48 hours apart...not impossible but usually that does not verify...looks like the GFS is having huge issues with figuring out timing with the low development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 ECM means look pretty well wound up with the low at 72 hours out and then they have a follow up low at 96-120 hrs out as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 18 Z GFS for ABE FRI 06Z 01-APR 0.2 -0.9 1001 99 99 0.53 544 542 FRI 12Z 01-APR -0.3 -1.9 997 99 80 0.35 537 540 FRI 18Z 01-APR 1.3 -3.6 996 100 87 0.06 533 536 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 In fairness, there are probably a fair number of them (in the NYC forum) who'd really like to see 95-96 go by the wayside and this winter to be their number 1. After missing out last season (relatively speaking) and then getting close but perhaps no cigar this season, they probably feel ripped off, somehow Yeah we've really missed out, it's tough getting back-to-back 70" winters here in Dobbs Ferry with back-to-back 50"+ winters for Central Park and this probably finishing the third snowiest on record. Weenies haven't had much to cheer for lately NYC could see accumulating snow out of the Friday storm as the models are showing a <534dm cut-off in the Northeast. The problem with the 18z GFS is that it cuts off the low too late and tracks the H5 energy over the Adirondacks, with the surface low south of Long Island's Twin Forks. We need the 500mb low to close earlier and to have the surface low a bit further east, preferably about 50 miles off of Montauk. NNJ and E PA, especially the higher elevations, would do very well in the 18z GFS scenario, and Philly might see some snow on the backend with a closed 700mb low tracking from Toms River to LI. But it won't be much for PHL unless the upper levels develop faster and further east, otherwise this is just a slop storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Yeah we've really missed out, it's tough getting back-to-back 70" winters here in Dobbs Ferry with back-to-back 50"+ winters for Central Park and this probably finishing the third snowiest on record. Weenies haven't had much to cheer for lately NYC could see accumulating snow out of the Friday storm as the models are showing a <534dm cut-off in the Northeast. The problem with the 18z GFS is that it cuts off the low too late and tracks the H5 energy over the Adirondacks, with the surface low south of Long Island's Twin Forks. We need the 500mb low to close earlier and to have the surface low a bit further east, preferably about 50 miles off of Montauk. NNJ and E PA, especially the higher elevations, would do very well in the 18z GFS scenario, and Philly might see some snow on the backend with a closed 700mb low tracking from Toms River to LI. But it won't be much for PHL unless the upper levels develop faster and further east, otherwise this is just a slop storm. Did you see the post where I compared what you do to us as similar to what Forky does to SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 GFS still the warmest of all the models. And its damn close, so that tells you we have a legit threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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