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April 1-3 Late Season Threat


Ralph Wiggum

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the 12z euro run is a lot faster/weaker with the northern stream energy. Which causes deamplification and less digging and pulling back of the baroclini zone which is why is scoots out to sea. While the 0z had a slower more potent northern stream wave that allowed it dig deeper into the gom, and pull the baroclinic zone closer to the coast

Thanks for the clarification...do not have the 6 hr maps yet ..just the text!

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Apparently the ECM has lost this system... or sends it OTS...

It amps the 1st system pretty tightly. 1004 around box, then goes just east of the bm. Trailing shortwave (which was our big storm) acts as a kicker to the 1st storm. Kinda strung out. Some system shows up around April 2nd, but it looks more like the sytstem that passed our area earlier last week. The 1st storm on the euro looks half decent. Prob too warm for coastal areas verbatim though. It comes at night though. Posting from my iPhone, so sorry for the lack of further detail. Bout .5" up to Scranton. .75 starts at bucks county. Central Md- to delaware are jackpot qpf wise, rain, with 1.25" tight gradient between bucks and these points.

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Hmm.. MAybe it's my iPhone/ safari browser. Only says "12z gfs shows powerhouse storm"....

Thanks for clarifying.

Yeah ...the title is actually the first part and then the subtitle is April 1-2nd period...

Perhaps its not picking up on the subtitle.... trust me its there though ;)

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lol, you are quite the character. My two cents tell me that it's going to be a very cold rainstorm for everyone. If isn't too dry, it's too warm.

My two cents don't.. if the 850s remain cold and we get good dynamics from a bombing storm off the coast, there will likely be some snow except for the immediate coastline. Now the solution could change many times and we could still get an unfavorable for snow scenario.

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My two cents don't.. if the 850s remain cold and we get good dynamics from a bombing storm off the coast, there will likely be some snow except for the immediate coastline. Now the solution could change many times and we could still get an unfavorable for snow scenario.

Perhaps a wet snow for the highest elevations that doesn't really amount to anything.

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Yeah I doubt the second storm is snow with the NAO going + after the first storm...but we'll see I guess.

That's my biggest concern with this scenario. The two big April KU's in the last 60 years, April 1982 and April 1997, were during a positive-to-negative NAO transition.

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